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Serie A

Atalanta - Sassuolo

08/23/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Atalanta
2.1
Total xG
3.0
Sassuolo
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
ATASAS

Atalanta

Attack strength (1.47x league average)
+1.20
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.22
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.01
Nikola Krstović not in squad (10 goals, 5 assists)
Charles De Ketelaere not in squad (3 goals, 5 assists)
Marten de Roon not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Sassuolo

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.10
Domenico Berardi not in squad (8 goals, 4 assists)
Kristian Thorstvedt not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
Ismaël Koné not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists)
Tarik Muharemović not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Ulisses Garcia not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
61% of goal output missing (only 51% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atalanta with Raoul Bellanova: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Atalanta: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

64%

Draw

22%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

36%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Only 52% of seasonal goal threat available, without Domenico Berardi, Kristian Thorstvedt, Ismaël Koné, Tarik Muharemović, and Ulisses Garcia
  • Tactical trend: Sassuolo averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Mathematical forecast: The model calculates a 64% probability for an Atalanta home win
Risk Factors
  • Atalanta with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Limited data availability for duel statistics of the last 5 matches
Overview

Atalanta (12th place, 0 points) host Sassuolo (10th place, 0 points) at the Gewiss Stadium

Serie A match on August 23, 2026, 8:45 PM

A crucial clash early in the season as both teams look to secure their first points

Form

Atalanta's form string is DWLDD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)

Sassuolo's form string is WLLLW (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses)

The hosts ended their recent run with two consecutive draws

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atalanta averaged 1.34 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded last season

Sassuolo averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded

At home, Atalanta conceded only 0.79 goals per game on average

Head-to-Head

Sassuolo dominates the head-to-head record with 2 wins in the last 2 matches

The last match ended in a 2-1 win for Sassuolo on March 1, 2026

Overall goal difference of 5-1 in favor of the visitors

Key Players

Gianluca Scamacca recorded 10 goals and 1 assist last season

Giacomo Raspadori contributes with 3 goals and an average rating of 7.00

Armand Laurienté has been in form for Sassuolo with 2 goals and 1 assist recently

Goalkeepers

Marco Carnesecchi kept 13 clean sheets with a rating of 7.07

Arijanet Murić registered 8 clean sheets with a rating of 7.17

Influences

Atalanta holds the home advantage at the Gewiss Stadium on a grass pitch

The stadium averages a very low 0.8 goals per game based on venue stats

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