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Serie A

Parma - Cagliari

08/22/2026, 06:45 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Parma
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Cagliari
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

9%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
PARCAG

Parma

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.01
Mateo Pellegrino not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists)
Gabriel Strefezza not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
40% of goal output missing (only 56% available)

Cagliari

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.29
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Sebastiano Esposito not in squad (7 goals, 5 assists)
Gianluca Gaetano not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Marco Palestra not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Yerry Mina on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
71% of goal output missing (only 35% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Parma: 93% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Parma: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Cagliari: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Parma with Oliver Sørensen: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 5
    Cagliari with Gabriele Zappa: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

31%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Severe quality loss for Cagliari: Only 36% of the usual goal threat is active due to missing key players like Sebastiano Esposito (7 goals, 5 assists)
  • Cagliari averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches with balanced possession (48%)
  • Historical H2H advantage for Cagliari with 3 wins and no defeats in the last 4 direct meetings
Risk Factors
  • Limited offensive threat for Parma: Only 56% of the usual starting strength is available, without Mateo Pellegrino (9 goals)
  • Parma plays highly counter-oriented and averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Parma hosts Cagliari at the Stadio Ennio Tardini

Serie A match on August 22, 2026, 8:45 PM

Both teams start the new season level on points

Mathematical predictions expect an extremely balanced match

Form

Parma form: LLLWW

Cagliari form: DLWWW

Parma with 2 wins and 3 losses in their recent matches

Cagliari registered 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss recently

Statistics

Parma scored an average of 0.74 goals per game last season

Parma's defense conceded an average of 1.21 goals

Cagliari scored an average of 1.05 goals per match

Cagliari conceded an average of 1.76 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

Cagliari dominates with 3 wins and 1 draw

Parma failed to win any of the last 4 encounters

The last head-to-head meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on February 27, 2026

Key Players

Adrián Bernabé (3 goals, 1 assist, avg. 7.08 rating)

Mandela Keita (1 goal, 1 assist, avg. 6.84 rating)

Emanuele Valeri (2 assists, avg. 6.82 rating)

Elia Caprile (avg. 6.92 rating, avg. 6.83 rating in the last 5 games)

Adam Obert (3 assists, avg. 6.83 rating)

Paul Mendy (2 goals, avg. 6.75 rating)

Goalkeepers

Edoardo Corvi for Parma with a 6.90 average rating last season

Elia Caprile guards Cagliari's goal with a 6.92 season average rating

Parma kept a total of 13 clean sheets

Cagliari kept 8 clean sheets last season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Stadio Ennio Tardini

The historic home record at this stadium shows an average of 2.2 goals per game

There was a BTTS rate of 40% in the last 5 home matches

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