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Serie A

Bologna - Lazio

08/24/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Bologna
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Lazio
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

2:0

8%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
BOLLAZ

Bologna

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.29
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Santiago Castro not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists)
Federico Bernardeschi on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Jonathan Rowe on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Tommaso Pobega not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Remo Freuler not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

Lazio

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.23
Tijjani Noslin not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Toma BaÅ”ić not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lazio with Alessio Romagnoli: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Bologna with Tommaso Pobega: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Lazio: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 4
    Lazio: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Lazio: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

31%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Bologna is on an offensive upward trend, currently scoring more frequently at 1.8 goals than their season average of 1.5
  • Lazio's goal production has stalled significantly in recent matches at 0.4 goals compared to their season average of 1.2
  • Bologna dominated recent matches with an average of 55% possession, while Lazio averaged 4.2 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Bologna exhibits defensive weaknesses in home games, conceding an average of 1.53 goals per match
  • Lazio travels with a weak form trend, suffering 4 losses in their last 5 matches
  • Limited data availability regarding duel statistics in the last 5 matches
Overview

Bologna (13th place, 0 points) host Lazio (11th place, 0 points) at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Serie A match on August 24, 2026, 4:30 PM

A balanced clash to start the campaign

Form

Bologna with form string LDWWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) and 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in their last 5 games

Lazio shows form LLLWL with 1 win and 4 losses

Bologna enters this matchup in more stable form

Statistics

Bologna scores an average of 1.29 goals per game while conceding 1.21

Lazio averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded

Bologna conceded an average of 1.53 goals at home

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in history

Lazio leads with 2 wins compared to 1 win for Bologna and 2 draws

The last duel ended in a 2-0 away win for Lazio on March 22, 2026

Key Players

Riccardo Orsolini with 10 goals and 1 assist this season

NicolĆ² Cambiaghi scored 3 goals and provided 4 assists

Juan Miranda excels with a 7.12 rating, 1 goal and 3 assists

Not nominated for Bologna: Santiago Castro (7G/2A), Federico Bernardeschi (4G/2A), Jonathan Rowe (3G/2A), Tommaso Pobega (3G/1A), Remo Freuler (1G/2A)

Matteo Cancellieri contributed 4 goals and 2 assists

Kenneth Taylor scored 3 times and assisted 2 goals

Mattia Zaccagni recorded 3 goals this season

Not nominated for Lazio: Tijjani Noslin (4G/2A), Toma BaÅ”ić (2G/3A)

Goalkeepers

Lukasz Skorupski starts in goal for Bologna with a 6.72 rating

Christos Mandas is in goal for Lazio with no season appearances but played in 2 recent matches

Bologna achieved 12 clean sheets this season, while Lazio kept 15

Influences

Home advantage at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara on grass

The stadium averages 2.8 goals per match

Bologna concedes more goals at home (1.53 average) than away

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