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Serie A

Genoa - Napoli

08/22/2026, 06:45 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Genoa
0.7
Total xG
2.1
Napoli
1.3
Most Likely Scores

0:1

16%

0:0

14%

1:1

14%

0:2

11%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
GENNAP

Genoa

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 2, 14 places gap)
-0.12

Napoli

Rising form (2.5 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.28
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.13
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 16, 14 places gap)
+0.09
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.05
Miguel GutiĂŠrrez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Genoa with Johan VĂĄsquez: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Napoli with Pasquale Mazzocchi : 2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

19%

Draw

32%

Away Win

50%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

50%

Away or Draw

81%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • Attacking form: Napoli is currently scoring more frequently with 2.5 goals on average compared to their season average of 1.6
  • Tactical dominance: Napoli averaged 5.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • H2H superiority: Napoli won 3 of the last 4 direct encounters against Genoa
Risk Factors
  • Genoa averaged only 3.6 shots on target per match in recent games
  • The model estimates the probability of a low-scoring game (Under 2.5) at 66%
Overview

Genoa host Napoli at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Serie A match on August 22, 2026, 8:45 PM

The home side currently sits in 1st place with 0 points

The visitors from Naples occupy the 18th position with 0 points at the start of the season

The mathematical model favors the away team for this matchup

Form

Genoa's form curve stands at DDLLW with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Most recently, they secured a 4-1 victory against Ascoli at home

Napoli arrive with a form of WDLWW, including 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The visitors won their last match 1-0 against Udinese

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Genoa scored an average of 1.08 goals per game and conceded 1.34 this season

In home games, their average stands at 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded

Napoli averaged 1.53 goals scored per match and conceded 0.95 goals

On the road, the visitors show a strong record of 1.56 goals scored and 1.12 conceded

The home side kept 9 clean sheets this season, while the visitors recorded 15 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Genoa have 0 wins, Napoli have 3 wins, and 1 match ended in a draw

The goal difference in these direct encounters stands at 6-9 against Genoa

Their last meeting on February 7, 2026, ended in a 3-2 away victory for Napoli

Historical dominance lies clearly with the visiting team

Key Players

Lorenzo Colombo averages 0.24 goals per 90 minutes with 7 goals this season

Leo Østigürd provides defensive stability and contributed 5 goals this season

Vitinha has recorded 5 goals and 1 assist so far

Rasmus Højlund leads Naples with 12 goals and 5 assists this season

Scott McTominay impresses in midfield with 10 goals and 3 assists

Alisson Santos has scored 4 goals with an average rating of 7.14

Goalkeepers

Justin Bijlow plays in goal for Genoa with an average rating of 6.92

He contributed to the team's total of 9 clean sheets this season

Alex Meret guards the net for Napoli with an average rating of 6.73

He was directly involved in the visitors' 15 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris shows a historical average of 4.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches played at this venue

Genoa hold a home record of 1.1 goals scored on grass surfaces

Napoli average 1.56 goals scored away from home on natural grass

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