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Serie A

Torino - AC Milan

08/23/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Torino
1.3
Total xG
2.5
AC Milan
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
TORAM

Torino

Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
Rafa Obrador not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Emirhan İlkhan not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

AC Milan

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Rafael Leão not in squad (9 goals, 3 assists)
Adrien Rabiot on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists)
Christopher Nkunku not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists)
Alexis Saelemaekers not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
Youssouf Fofana not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Fikayo Tomori not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Davide Bartesaghi not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
66% of goal output missing (only 30% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    AC Milan with Matteo Gabbia: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Torino: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Torino: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Torino with Sandro Kulenovic: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 5
    Torino: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

30%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad depletion: AC Milan faces the match without Rafael Leão, Adrien Rabiot, and Christopher Nkunku, leaving them with only 30% of their usual goal-scoring threat available
  • Tactical approach: Torino averaged 3.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to AC Milan's average of 4.0
  • Model prediction: The mathematical model indicates a highly balanced match, calculating an equal win probability of 35% for both teams
Risk Factors
  • Offensive decline: AC Milan's recent goal production has slowed down to 1.25 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.49
  • Defensive vulnerability: Torino conceded an average of 1.66 goals per game throughout the season
  • Squad gaps for Torino: Two key players, Rafa Obrador and Emirhan İlkhan, are absent from the match squad
Overview

Torino host AC Milan

Serie A match on August 23, 2026, 8:45 PM

Torino (9th place, 0 points) face AC Milan (13th place, 0 points) at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Both clubs aim for a positive start to the league campaign

Form

Torino enters with a form of LWLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Their last match ended in a 1-0 win against Carrarese

AC Milan travels with a form of DLLWL

Their most recent match resulted in a 1-2 defeat against Cagliari

Statistics

Torino scored an average of 1.16 goals and conceded 1.66 goals across 38 matches

AC Milan scored 1.39 goals on average while conceding 0.92 goals

Torino secured 12 clean sheets, compared to 15 clean sheets for AC Milan

At Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, 80% of matches saw over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head encounters

AC Milan won 2 matches, Torino won 1, and 1 match ended in a draw

The last meeting on March 21, 2026, ended in a 3-2 victory for AC Milan

Key Players

Giovanni Simeone has registered 11 goals this season for Torino

Nikola Vlašić contributed 8 goals and 3 assists

Strahinja Pavlović scored 5 goals and provided 1 assist for AC Milan

Goalkeepers

Diego Mascardi starts in goal for Torino

Mike Maignan lines up for AC Milan, having recorded 15 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Torino averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.26 conceded in home games

AC Milan averages 1.4 goals scored and 0.7 goals conceded in away games

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