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Serie A

Roma - Fiorentina

08/24/2026, 06:45 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Roma
2.1
Total xG
2.7
Fiorentina
0.6
Most Likely Scores

2:0

15%

3:0

11%

1:1

9%

2:1

9%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
ROMFIO

Roma

Attack strength (1.52x league average)
+1.37
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.30
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.30
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.12
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.08
Matías Soulé on the bench (6 goals, 5 assists)
Niccolò Pisilli not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Zeki Çelik not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

Fiorentina

Attack weakness (0.49x league average)
-1.04
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.08
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Albert Gudmundsson on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Robin Gosens not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Manor Solomon not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 43% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Roma: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Roma: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 3
    Fiorentina with Giovanni Fabbian: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Fiorentina: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

72%

Draw

20%

Away Win

8%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

92%

Away or Draw

28%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad deficit: Fiorentina is missing Albert Gudmundsson, Robin Gosens, and Manor Solomon, leaving only 44% of their usual goal threat available
  • Roma's offensive dominance: The hosts controlled recent matches with 57% average possession and 6.0 shots on target
  • Clear prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 72% probability for a home win, expecting 2.12 goals for Roma
Risk Factors
  • Injuries in Roma's midfield and defense with L. Pellegrini and K. Koulierakis sidelined
  • Low offensive threat for the visitors, who averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Roma (10th place, 0 points) host Fiorentina (12th place, 0 points) at the Stadio Olimpico

Serie A match on August 24, 2026, 8:45 PM

The season opener for both teams at the historic Olimpico

Form

Roma ended last season in outstanding form with 5 consecutive wins

Their form trend of WWWWW shows a perfect run

Fiorentina travels with a form record of LDWDW and a recent victory

The visitors recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Statistics

Roma averaged 1.55 goals scored and just 0.82 goals conceded per match last season

The home side was defensively strong, keeping 18 clean sheets

Fiorentina averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded

Away from home, the visitors conceded an average of 1.53 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma won 3 times and Fiorentina won twice

The goal difference stands at 8:9 from Roma's perspective

The last meeting on May 4, 2026, ended in a dominant 4:0 home win for Roma

Key Players

Donyell Malen scored 14 goals and provided 2 assists during the season

Paulo Dybala contributed 2 goals and 7 assists with a 7.23 average rating

Defender Gianluca Mancini scored an impressive 3 goals in his last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Mile Svilar made 38 appearances with an average rating of 7.01

David de Gea played 37 matches and shows a rising form trend

Roma achieved 18 clean sheets last season compared to Fiorentina's 10

Influences

The home advantage at the Stadio Olimpico on natural grass strongly favors Roma

Roma conceded only 0.48 goals per home game last season

The stadium average stands at 2.4 goals per game

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