Serie A
AC Milan - Venezia
08/28/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.7
0.9
1:1
12%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
AC Milan
Venezia
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
57%
Draw
26%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
43%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Critical squad impact for Milan: Only 47% of goal threat is available, with key players like Adrien Rabiot and Christopher Nkunku missing
- Tactical dominance by the visitors: Venezia averaged 59% possession and 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Historical superiority: Milan dominated the previous head-to-head matches with two wins and a 6-0 goal difference
Risk Factors
- Milan's defensive vulnerability: The home team recently conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match, which is significantly above their season average
- Venezia's away weakness: The visitors conceded an average of 5.0 goals per away game this season
- Limited data availability regarding the current player form of Venezia in the provided dataset
Overview
AC Milan host Venezia at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Serie A match on August 28, 2026, 8:45 PM
AC Milan sit in 5th place with 3 points after an opening win
Venezia are in 18th place following a defeat on the first matchday
The mathematical model favors the home team with a 57% win probability
Form
AC Milan showed mixed performances recently with a form curve of LLWLW
In their last five matches, they recorded two wins and three losses, most recently a 2-1 win against Torino
Venezia travel with a form curve of WDLWL
The visitors registered two wins, one draw, and two losses overall, but lost their latest game 2-0 against Lecce
Statistics
AC Milan score an average of 1.39 goals and concede 0.92 goals per game this season
Venezia average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded over their limited number of matches
The home side kept 15 clean sheets so far this season
Away from home, Venezia conceded an average of 5.0 goals per game this season
Head-to-Head
In the last two head-to-head matches, AC Milan recorded two wins
The goal difference in these games stands at 6-0 in favor of Milan
The last meeting on April 27, 2025, ended in a 2-0 away win for AC Milan
Venezia have not won a match against Milan in recent history
Key Players
Luka Modrić pulls the strings in Milan's midfield with a strong season rating of 7.33 and one assist in the last five games
Strahinja Pavlović stabilizes the home defense and scored one goal in his last appearances, holding a season average of 6.96
Davide Bartesaghi provides reliable defensive performances with an average rating of 6.93
Goalkeepers
Mike Maignan starts in goal for AC Milan, holding an average rating of 7.07 this season
Filip Stanković guards the goal for Venezia
The hosts achieved 15 clean sheets this season, while the visitors kept two clean sheets
Influences
The match will be played on grass at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
The venue stats show a high scoring rate with an average of 3.4 goals per game at this stadium
Both teams scored in 80% of the matches played there
Milan's home advantage is supported by an average of 1.39 home goals scored this season