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AC Milan – Venezia2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
AC Milan
1.79
Total xG
2.69
Venezia
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AC Milan | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +1.05 | |
| Attack strength (1.35x league average) | +0.81 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.73 | |
| Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Adrien Rabiot not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Christopher Nkunku not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Alexis Saelemaekers not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Youssouf Fofana not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Fikayo Tomori not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 47% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact for Milan: Only 47% of goal threat is available, with key players like Adrien Rabiot and Christopher Nkunku missing
- Tactical dominance by the visitors: Venezia averaged 59% possession and 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Historical superiority: Milan dominated the previous head-to-head matches with two wins and a 6-0 goal difference
Risks
- Milan's defensive vulnerability: The home team recently conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match, which is significantly above their season average
- Venezia's away weakness: The visitors conceded an average of 5.0 goals per away game this season
- Limited data availability regarding the current player form of Venezia in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
AC Milan57%
Draw26%
Venezia17%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Double chance
AC Milan or draw83%
Venezia or draw43%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
Lineups
AC Milan 3-4-2-1 · Venezia 3-5-2
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 34 M. Fuentes
- 5 K. De Winter
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 21 S. Chukwueze
- 80 Y. Musah
- 14 L. Modrić
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 8 R. Loftus-Cheek
- 70 A. Cisse
- 9 G. Ramos
Venezia
- 1 F. Stankovic
- 3 J. Schingtienne
- 17 A. Bella-Kotchap
- 4 B. Franjić
- 18 A. Hainaut
- 71 E. Pérez Muñoz
- 6 G. Busio
- 26 T. Bašić
- 5 R. Haps
- 10 J. Zamora
- 45 A. Adams
Substitutes
- 22 D. da Silva Moreira
- 12 A. Rabiot
- 30 A. Jasari
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 11 C. Pulisic
- 1 P. Terracciano
- 56 A. Saelemaekers
- 46 M. Gabbia
- 96 L. Torriani
- 73 F. Camarda
- 42 F. Terracciano
- 13 S. Bocoum
- 28 C. Comotto
- 14 T. Rendall Correia
- 8 L. Dabo
- 19 S. Sohm
- 7 A. Rrahmani
- 21 T. Helgason
- 96 L. Montipò
- 11 M. Farji
- 20 S. Sagrado
- 23 M. Grandi
- 30 M. Dagasso
- 95 A. Gomes Furtado
- 29 L. Lauberbach
- 90 A. Okoro
- 25 R. Halhal
- 55 S. Panada
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