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Serie A

Cagliari - Inter

08/30/2026, 06:45 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Cagliari
1.0
Total xG
2.3
Inter
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
CAGINT

Cagliari

Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap)
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.07
Sebastiano Esposito not in squad (7 goals, 5 assists)
Gianluca Gaetano not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
65% of goal output missing (only 42% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)

Inter

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap)
+0.08
Piotr Zieliński on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists)
Yann Bisseck on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Carlos Augusto not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Inter: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    Inter with Lautaro Martínez starting: 2.6 goals/game, without him: 1.7 (14/11 games, last 29)

  • 3
    Inter: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

32%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Only 43% of goal threat available for Cagliari, as Sebastiano Esposito and Gianluca Gaetano are missing
  • Inter dominated the last four meetings with four wins and an aggregate score of 11 to 1
  • Inter is scoring more frequently with 2.6 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 2.3
Risk Factors
  • Restricted data availability on weather
  • Inter must play without the unselected Piotr Zieliński, Yann Bisseck, and Carlos Augusto
Overview

Cagliari host Inter at the Sardegna Arena

Serie A match on August 30, 2026, 8:45 PM

Both teams started the season with 3 points

Cagliari sit in 10th place, Inter in 6th

Form

Cagliari with four wins from their last five matches

Form string of the hosts is LWWWW

Inter remained unbeaten in their last five matches

Form string of the visitors shows WWDDW with three wins and two draws

Statistics

Cagliari averaged 1.05 goals scored per match last season

Cagliari's home record stands at 22 goals scored and 23 conceded

Inter scored 89 goals in 38 games during the last season

The visitors conceded an average of just 0.92 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Four head-to-head matches in the last two years

Inter won all four encounters

Overall goal difference of 11 to 1 in favor of Inter

The last meeting ended in a 3-0 victory for Inter

Key Players

Adam Obert with 35 appearances and three assists in Cagliari's defense

Michel Adopo provided two assists in his 38 matches for the hosts

Juan Rodríguez scored one goal in 17 appearances for Cagliari

Federico Dimarco with strong seven goals and 17 assists for Inter

Lautaro Martínez scored 17 goals in 30 league games for the visitors

Hakan Çalhanoğlu contributed nine goals and four assists in 22 appearances

Goalkeepers

Elia Caprile played 38 matches in goal for Cagliari and shows a declining form trend

Josep Martínez has 5 season appearances for Inter and shows a rising form trend

Cagliari kept 8 clean sheets last season, while Inter managed 18

Influences

Sardegna Arena recently averaged 2.4 total goals per match

Both teams scored in two out of five home matches at the Sardegna Arena

Cagliari scored an average of 1.05 goals at home and conceded 1.10

Inter scored an average of 2.29 goals away and conceded 1.12

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