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Cagliari – Inter0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Cagliari
1.03
Total xG
2.28
Inter
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cagliari | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| Sebastiano Esposito not in squad (7 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Gianluca Gaetano not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 65% of goal output missing (only 42% available) | ||
| Piotr Zieliński on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Yann Bisseck on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Carlos Augusto not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 43% of goal threat available for Cagliari, as Sebastiano Esposito and Gianluca Gaetano are missing
- Inter dominated the last four meetings with four wins and an aggregate score of 11 to 1
- Inter is scoring more frequently with 2.6 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 2.3
Risks
- Restricted data availability on weather
- Inter must play without the unselected Piotr Zieliński, Yann Bisseck, and Carlos Augusto
All probabilities
Result
Cagliari29%
Draw32%
Inter39%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Double chance
Cagliari or draw61%
Inter or draw71%
No draw68%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Inter with Lautaro Martínez starting: 2.6 goals/game, without him: 1.7 (14/11 games, last 29)
- Inter: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Cagliari 4-2-3-1 · Inter 3-5-2
Cagliari
- 1 E. Caprile
- 2 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
- 14 A. Deiola
- 15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
- 33 A. Obert
- 4 A. Romano
- 6 H. Winks
- 8 M. Adopo
- 70 D. Maldini
- 10 J. Fazzini
- 31 P. Mendy
Inter
- 1 J. Martínez Riera
- 28 B. Pavard
- 25 M. Akanji
- 95 A. Bastoni
- 11 L. Tomaz de Lima
- 23 N. Barella
- 20 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 8 P. Sučić
- 32 F. Dimarco
- 10 L. Martínez
- 94 F. Esposito
Substitutes
- 9 K. Omoruyi Benjamin
- 39 A. Fadera
- 21 N. Cavuoti
- 27 J. Liteta
- 29 G. Borrelli
- 12 A. Sherri
- 17 M. Felici
- 20 R. Ciervo
- 23 B. Radunović
- 24 G. Aurelio
- 22 R. Kofler
- 32 I. Sulev
- 30 A. Akakriki
- 21 C. Jones
- 6 J. Stones
- 5 A. Stankovic
- 14 A. Bonny
- 22 H. Mkhitaryan
- 7 P. Zieliński
- 12 R. Di Gennaro
- 17 A. Diouf
- 9 M. Thuram
- 31 Y. Bisseck
- 30 C. Zopalato Neves
- 49 I. Provedel
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