Match report â
Fiorentina â Frosinone0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Fiorentina
1.70
Total xG
2.52
Frosinone
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fiorentina | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | +0.60 | |
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | â0.48 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | â0.01 | |
| Nicolò Fagioli not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Robin Gosens not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| DodĂ´ not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Marco Brescianini on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 55% of goal output missing (only 42% available) |
Key factors
- Only 43% of the usual goal threat is available, as key players Nicolò Fagioli, Robin Gosens, Dodô, and Marco Brescianini are not in the lineup
- The mathematical analysis favors Fiorentina with a calculated win probability of 57%
- Fiorentina is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.4
Risks
- Fiorentina suffered a heavy 0-4 defeat against Roma in their last league match
- Frosinone averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited data availability regarding Frosinone's away statistics and player forms
All probabilities
Result
Fiorentina57%
Draw27%
Frosinone16%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Fiorentina or draw84%
Frosinone or draw43%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
5%
0:3
Final score
Lineups
Fiorentina 4-3-3 ¡ Frosinone 4-2-3-1
Fiorentina
- 43 D. de Gea Quintana
- 20 A. JimĂŠnez SĂĄnchez
- 3 R. DrÄguČin
- 5 M. Pongracic
- 21 V. ValdepeĂąas Talavera
- 27 C. Ndour
- 42 C. Inao OulaĂŻ
- 14 A. Atta
- 30 F. Mastantuono
- 32 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
- 11 A. Gudmundsson
Frosinone
- 22 L. Palmisani
- 20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
- 3 G. Calvani
- 30 I. Monterisi
- 79 G. Bracaglia
- 73 P. Masini
- 14 G. Calò
- 40 S. Fini
- 10 R. Schmid
- 17 G. Kvernadze
- 9 A. Raimondo
Substitutes
- 4 M. Brescianini
- 17 J. Neto Lopes
- 19 L. Lezzerini
- 53 O. Christensen
- 8 R. Mandragora
- 2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
- 6 L. Ranieri
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 71 S. Jallow
- 33 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
- 72 B. Mazzeo
- 73 A. Pirrò
- 25 K. Akpoguma
- 11 D. Birligea
- 27 F. Grillitsch
- 71 A. TerziÄ
- 70 L. Hasa
- 24 A. Zerbin
- 91 S. Desplanches
- 2 G. Cittadini
- 12 M. Pisseri
- 16 M. Cichella
- 74 O. Fayed
- 34 A. El Azzouzi
- 5 W. Amey
- 90 E. Tchato Mbiayi
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