šŸ‡®šŸ‡¹

Serie A

Fiorentina - Frosinone

08/29/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Fiorentina
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Frosinone
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
FIOFRO

Fiorentina

Attack strength (1.45x league average)
+0.60
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
NicolĆ² Fagioli not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Robin Gosens not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
DodƓ not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Marco Brescianini on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 42% available)

Frosinone

Attack weakness (0.55x league average)
-0.48
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

27%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Only 43% of the usual goal threat is available, as key players NicolĆ² Fagioli, Robin Gosens, DodĆ“, and Marco Brescianini are not in the lineup
  • The mathematical analysis favors Fiorentina with a calculated win probability of 57%
  • Fiorentina is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.4
Risk Factors
  • Fiorentina suffered a heavy 0-4 defeat against Roma in their last league match
  • Frosinone averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Limited data availability regarding Frosinone's away statistics and player forms
Overview

Fiorentina (20th place, 0 points) host Frosinone (14th place, 0 points) at the Stadio Artemio Franchi

Serie A match on August 29, 2026, 6:30 PM

Both teams started the season with a defeat and seek their first points

Form

Fiorentina's form string is DWDWL

The home side recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Frosinone's form string is WLWL

The visitors registered 2 wins and 2 losses

Statistics

Fiorentina averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per match

Frosinone recorded 4 goals scored and 1 goal conceded in their opening game

The venue average stands at 2.0 goals per match

Key Players

Moise Kean scored 8 goals and provided 1 assist in 26 appearances

Rolando Mandragora recorded 7 goals and 3 assists in 34 games

Albert Gudmundsson contributed 5 goals and 4 assists in 33 matches

Goalkeepers

David de Gea is in goal for Fiorentina after making 37 appearances last season

No detailed performance data is available in the dataset for Frosinone's goalkeeper Lorenzo Palmisani

Influences

Fiorentina play at the Stadio Artemio Franchi on grass

Fiorentina's home record shows an even 1.11 goals scored and conceded per game

The venue's recent history shows a 60% rate of both teams scoring

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.