Match report →
Napoli – Como1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Napoli
1.17
Total xG
2.36
Como
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Napoli | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Alisson Santos on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Miguel Gutiérrez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jesús Rodríguez on the bench (2 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Máximo Perrone on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Marc Oliver Kempf on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form trend: Napoli currently score more frequently (2.0) compared to their season average (1.6), while Como's goal production is stalling (1.8) against their season average (2.1)
- Tactical setup: Como averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Napoli's average of 4.2
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical model calculates nearly identical win probabilities of 34% for Napoli and 35% for Como
Risks
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
- Missing creative player: Como must play without Jesús Rodríguez, who already contributed 9 assists this season
- Historical draw tendency: 3 of the last 5 head-to-head encounters ended in a draw
All probabilities
Result
Napoli34%
Draw31%
Como35%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Double chance
Napoli or draw65%
Como or draw66%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
0:1
10%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Como: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Napoli 4-3-3 · Como 4-2-3-1
Napoli
- 1 A. Meret
- 22 G. Di Lorenzo
- 13 A. Rrahmani
- 16 R. Marín Zamora
- 17 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 99 A. Zambo Anguissa
- 68 S. Lobotka
- 8 S. McTominay
- 21 M. Politano
- 19 R. Højlund
- 70 N. Lang
Como
- 1 J. Butez
- 27 Y. Couto
- 4 J. Naveros
- 99 T. Chalobah
- 3 ?. Valle Gómez
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 11 A. Diao Diaoune
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
- 20 M. Baturina
- 9 A. Douvikas
Substitutes
- 32 V. Milinković Savić
- 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
- 31 S. Beukema
- 37 L. Spinazzola
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 20 L. Lucca
- 26 A. Vergara
- 7 D. Neres Campos
- 11 K. De Bruyne
- 27 A. de Almeida Santos
- 23 G. Santana do Nascimento
- 2 C. Favasuli
- 47 C. Garofalo
- 53 W. Kambwala
- 90 I. Monzón
- 15 A. Lahdo
- 14 S. Ricci
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 17 J. Rodríguez Caraballo
- 5 M. Perrone
- 2 M. Kempf
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 18 E. Goldaniga
- 13 A. Dossena
- 22 M. Vigorito
- 12 E. Audero Mulyadi
- 30 M. Liberali
- 16 K. da Silva
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