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Serie A

Napoli - Como

08/30/2026, 04:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Napoli
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Como
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

10%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
NAPCOM

Napoli

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.15
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Alisson Santos on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Miguel Gutiérrez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Como

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.32
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Jesús Rodríguez on the bench (2 goals, 9 assists)
Máximo Perrone on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Marc Oliver Kempf on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Como: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

31%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Form trend: Napoli currently score more frequently (2.0) compared to their season average (1.6), while Como's goal production is stalling (1.8) against their season average (2.1)
  • Tactical setup: Como averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Napoli's average of 4.2
  • Balanced prediction: The mathematical model calculates nearly identical win probabilities of 34% for Napoli and 35% for Como
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
  • Missing creative player: Como must play without Jesús Rodríguez, who already contributed 9 assists this season
  • Historical draw tendency: 3 of the last 5 head-to-head encounters ended in a draw
Overview

Napoli (9th place, 3 points) host Como (13th place, 1 point) at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Serie A match on August 30, 2026, 4:30 PM

Highly balanced matchup according to the mathematical model

Form

Napoli with form DLWWW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

Como with form DWWWD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)

Napoli won their last match 2-0 against Genoa, while Como drew 1-1 against Udinese

Statistics

Napoli scored 1.53 goals and conceded 0.95 goals on average last season

Como averaged 1.71 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded per match

Como remain defensively stable on the road with only 0.78 goals conceded per away game

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in recent history

Even record with 1 win for each side and 3 draws

The last encounter ended in a scoreless 0-0 draw

Key Players

Rasmus Højlund (12 goals, 5 assists) shows a rising form trend

Scott McTominay contributes stable performances (10 goals, 3 assists)

Anastasios Douvikas is Como's top threat with 14 goals

Not nominated: Alisson Santos (4 goals, 0 assists), Miguel Gutiérrez (1 goal, 1 assist) for Napoli

Not nominated: Jesús Rodríguez (2 goals, 9 assists), Máximo Perrone (3 goals, 4 assists), Marc Oliver Kempf (4 goals, 1 assist) for Como

Goalkeepers

Alex Meret with a season average of 6.73 in 11 appearances

Jean Butez started 38 matches and maintains a strong 7.08 rating

Napoli kept 15 clean sheets, while Como achieved 19 clean sheets

Influences

Home advantage for Napoli at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona with 1.5 goals scored per home game

The venue averages 2.6 total goals per match

The match is played on grass

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