Match report ā
Lazio ā Genoa1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Lazio
1.26
Total xG
2.33
Genoa
1.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lazio | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | ā0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average) | ā0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ā0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 9, 7 places gap) | ā0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 16, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Tijjani Noslin not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Toma BaÅ”iÄ not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Adam Marusic not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 68% available) |
Key factors
- Historical dominance: Lazio won all 4 of the past head-to-head meetings against Genoa, outscoring them 11 to 2
- Model expectation: The mathematical model calculates a Home or Draw probability of 70%
- Genoa's away vulnerability: Genoa concedes an average of 1.39 goals per away match this season
Risks
- Lazio's depleted squad: Tijjani Noslin, Toma BaÅ”iÄ, and Adam Marusic are missing, leaving only 68% of their usual goal threat active
- Lazio's goal shortage: Recent goal production has stalled at an average of 0.6 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.2
- Lazio's low shooting rate: The hosts averaged only 3.8 shots on target per match in their recent fixtures
All probabilities
Result
Lazio39%
Draw31%
Genoa30%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Double chance
Lazio or draw70%
Genoa or draw61%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Genoa: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Lazio: 5 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Lazio: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Lazio: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
- Genoa: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)
Lineups
Lazio 4-3-3 Ā· Genoa 3-4-2-1
Lazio
- 35 C. Mandas
- 15 R. Floriani
- 5 D. Doekhi
- 25 O. Nielsen
- 17 N. Varela Tavares
- 16 D. Frattesi
- 6 N. Rovella
- 24 K. Taylor
- 22 M. Cancellieri
- 19 B. Dia
- 10 M. Zaccagni
Genoa
- 1 J. Bijlow
- 27 A. Marcandalli
- 5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 22 J. VƔsquez Ibarra
- 77 M. Ellertsson
- 32 M. Frendrup
- 97 D. Sow
- 15 B. Norton-Cuffy
- 8 T. Baldanzi
- 9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
- 29 L. Colombo
Substitutes
- 23 A. Pedraza Sag
- 37 J. Å utalo
- 21 R. Belahyane
- 29 M. Lazzari
- 11 G. Isaksen
- 13 A. Romagnoli
- 14 T. Noslin
- 9 A. Pinamonti
- 40 E. Motta
- 71 V. Farcomeni
- 63 F. Serra
- 28 A. Przyborek
- 47 D. Renzetti
- 33 R. Bordon
- 11 F. Meichtry
- 18 M. OsmajiÄ
- 39 D. Sommariva
- 10 J. Messias
- 20 S. Sabelli
- 3 A. MartĆn Caricol
- 34 S. Otoa
- 17 E. Havel
- 4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
- 99 F. Stolz
- 71 S. Wiafe
- 74 M. Doucoure
- 2 M. Mitaj
- 31 D. Puczka
- 85 M. Vaz
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