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Serie A

Lazio - Genoa

08/30/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Lazio
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Genoa
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
LAZGEN

Lazio

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 16, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Tijjani Noslin not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Toma BaÅ”ić not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Adam Marusic not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 68% available)

Genoa

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 9, 7 places gap)
-0.08
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Genoa: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)

  • 2
    Lazio: 5 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Lazio: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 4
    Lazio: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)

  • 5
    Genoa: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

31%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Historical dominance: Lazio won all 4 of the past head-to-head meetings against Genoa, outscoring them 11 to 2
  • Model expectation: The mathematical model calculates a Home or Draw probability of 70%
  • Genoa's away vulnerability: Genoa concedes an average of 1.39 goals per away match this season
Risk Factors
  • Lazio's depleted squad: Tijjani Noslin, Toma BaÅ”ić, and Adam Marusic are missing, leaving only 68% of their usual goal threat active
  • Lazio's goal shortage: Recent goal production has stalled at an average of 0.6 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.2
  • Lazio's low shooting rate: The hosts averaged only 3.8 shots on target per match in their recent fixtures
Overview

Lazio hosts Genoa at the Stadio Olimpico

Serie A match on August 30, 2026, 8:45 PM

Lazio is currently in 11th place with 3 points

Genoa holds the 16th position with 0 points

The mathematical model predicts a closely contested match

Form

Lazio displays a form of LLWLW

The team secured a win in their last match

Genoa has a form of DLLWL

The visitors suffered a defeat in their last game

Form codes: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Lazio scored an average of 1.08 goals per game this season

The hosts' defense concedes an average of 1.05 goals

Genoa also averaged 1.08 goals scored per match

The visitors' defense concedes an average of 1.34 goals

Lazio averaged 1.08 goals scored in home games

Genoa concedes an average of 1.39 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in total

Lazio dominated with 4 wins and scored 11 goals

Genoa failed to win any matches and scored 2 goals

The last direct encounter ended 3:2 in favor of Lazio

Key Players

Mattia Zaccagni (Avg rating 7.01, 3 goals)

Kenneth Taylor (Avg rating 6.86, 3 goals, 2 assists)

Matteo Cancellieri (Avg rating 6.89, 4 goals, 2 assists)

Lorenzo Colombo (Avg rating 6.71, 7 goals, 1 assist)

Leo ƘstigƄrd (Avg rating 7.13, 5 goals, 1 assist)

Vitinha (Avg rating 6.76, 5 goals, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Christos Mandas is in goal for Lazio

The hosts achieved 15 clean sheets this season

Justin Bijlow guards Genoa's goal

The visitors kept 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place on grass at the Stadio Olimpico

The last 5 games at this venue averaged 2.6 goals

The BTTS rate at this stadium is currently 20%

Lazio conceded an average of 1 goal per game at home

Genoa scored an average of 1.06 goals per away match

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