Serie A
Lecce - Roma
08/31/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
2.5
1.6
1:1
13%0:1
12%0:2
11%0:0
10%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
Lecce
Roma
The Lab
- 1Roma: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 2Roma: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
19%
Draw
28%
Away Win
53%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
47%
Away or Draw
81%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Severe squad depletion for Lecce: Only 47% of their usual starting XI strength is available, with key figures Lameck Banda, Antonino Gallo, and Walid Cheddira absent from the lineup
- Superb form for Roma: The visitors arrive with a perfect run of 5 consecutive wins, showcasing clinical efficiency by averaging 3.0 goals per game in recent matches
- Tactical dominance: Roma controlled recent matches, averaging 61% possession and generating 7.2 shots on target in their past outings
Risk Factors
- Pronounced offensive struggles for Lecce, scoring an average of only 0.72 goals per home match
- Historical mental block: Lecce has lost all of their last 4 meetings against Roma with a poor goal record of 1:8
Overview
Lecce (10th place, 3 points) host Roma (8th place, 3 points) at the Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
Serie A match on August 31, 2026, 6:30 PM
Early season clash with both teams coming off opening day wins
The model heavily favors Roma with a 53% win probability
Form
Lecce holds a form of LWWLW with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches
Roma enters with a perfect form of WWWWW with 5 consecutive wins
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Roma is highly prolific, averaging 3.0 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 1.64
Statistics
Lecce scores an average of 0.74 goals per game and concedes 1.32
Roma averages a strong 1.55 goals scored while conceding only 0.82 goals per match
In home games, Lecce averages 0.72 goals scored and 1.33 conceded
In away matches, Roma maintains a solid defensive record with 1.24 goals conceded per game
Head-to-Head
4 head-to-head matches in recent history show clear dominance by Roma
Lecce has failed to win any matches while Roma won all 4 encounters
The goal difference stands at 1:8 from Lecce's perspective
The last meeting on March 22, 2026, ended in a 1-0 victory for Roma
Key Players
Lassana Coulibaly guides the midfield with 33 appearances and an overall rating of 6.81
Defender Tiago Gabriel secures the defense with a seasonal rating of 6.87
For Roma, Donyell Malen shines in attack with 14 goals and a rating of 7.12
Paulo Dybala dictates play with 7 assists and an average rating of 7.23
Goalkeepers
Wladimiro Falcone guards Lecce's goal with a strong seasonal average rating of 6.84 and 10 clean sheets
Mile Svilar starts in goal for Roma, boasting an impressive tally of 18 clean sheets this campaign
Influences
The match will be played on natural grass at the Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
Stadium history points to a relatively low-scoring average of 2.0 goals per game at this venue
Lecce averages only 0.72 goals scored per home match while conceding 1.33