Match report →
Lecce – Roma0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Lecce
0.87
Total xG
2.48
Roma
1.60
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lecce | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.41 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.41 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 3, 14 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 17, 14 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Lameck Banda not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Antonino Gallo on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Walid Cheddira not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 44% of goal output missing (only 46% available) | ||
| Niccolò Pisilli not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Zeki Çelik not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Severe squad depletion for Lecce: Only 47% of their usual starting XI strength is available, with key figures Lameck Banda, Antonino Gallo, and Walid Cheddira absent from the lineup
- Superb form for Roma: The visitors arrive with a perfect run of 5 consecutive wins, showcasing clinical efficiency by averaging 3.0 goals per game in recent matches
- Tactical dominance: Roma controlled recent matches, averaging 61% possession and generating 7.2 shots on target in their past outings
Risks
- Pronounced offensive struggles for Lecce, scoring an average of only 0.72 goals per home match
- Historical mental block: Lecce has lost all of their last 4 meetings against Roma with a poor goal record of 1:8
All probabilities
Result
Lecce19%
Draw28%
Roma53%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
Lecce or draw47%
Roma or draw81%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
0:1
12%
0:2
11%
0:0
10%
1:2
9%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Roma: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Roma: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
Lineups
Lecce 3-5-2 · Roma 3-4-2-1
Lecce
- 30 W. Falcone
- 5 J. Siebert
- 4 K. Gaspar
- 44 T. Coelho Oliveira
- 17 D. Melo Veiga
- 29 L. Coulibaly
- 79 O. Ngom
- 28 O. Gorter
- 3 C. Ndaba
- 50 S. Pierotti
- 69 W. Geubbels
Roma
- 99 M. Svilar
- 87 D. Ghilardi
- 23 G. Mancini
- 22 M. Hermoso Canseco
- 77 E. Lulli
- 17 K. Kone
- 4 B. Cristante
- 43 W. França Lima
- 21 P. Exequiel Dybala
- 18 M. Malvano
- 14 D. Malen
Substitutes
- 7 A. Ahmed Fatah
- 2 A. Dembélé
- 20 I. Ilić
- 9 N. Štulić
- 14 Y. Maleh
- 25 A. Gallo
- 10 M. Berisha
- 11 K. Jocelyn N’dri
- 1 M. Bleve
- 33 P. Penev
- 16 O. Gandelman
- 8 S. Fofana
- 22 F. Esteban Sánchez
- 34 H. Lærke
- 31 E. Scott
- 3 K. Koulierakis
- 20 N. Molina Lucero
- 26 L. Balerdi Rossa
- 15 M. de Roon
- 86 R. Mora Carvalho
- 9 S. Castro
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 95 P. Gollini
- 70 G. De Marzi
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