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Serie A

Sassuolo - Torino

08/29/2026, 04:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Sassuolo
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Torino
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SASTOR

Sassuolo

Attack strength (1.21x league average)
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Armand Laurienté not in squad (7 goals, 9 assists)
Kristian Thorstvedt on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists)
Cristian Volpato not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Nemanja Matic not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

Torino

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Nikola Vlašić not in squad (8 goals, 3 assists)
Giovanni Simeone not in squad (11 goals, 0 assists)
Rafa Obrador not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Marcus Pedersen not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Saúl Coco not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Torino: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

  • 2
    Sassuolo: 40% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 15)

  • 3
    Torino: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

30%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Home win prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Sassuolo with a 42% probability and projects 1.40 expected goals
  • Tactical dominance: Sassuolo averaged 55.2% possession and 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Historical edge: Torino won both of the previous direct duels
Risk Factors
  • Away struggles: Torino conceded an average of 2.27 goals per away game last season
  • Sassuolo absences: None of the regular offensive key players are in the starting lineup according to squad impact data
  • Low offensive threat: Torino averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last five games
Overview

Sassuolo host Torino at the MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Serie A match on August 29, 2026, 6:30 PM

Sassuolo sit in 12th place and Torino in 13th place after the first matchday

Both teams aim to secure their first points after opening defeats

Form

Sassuolo are in LLLWL form and lost their last match against Atalanta

Torino show WLDWL form and lost their most recent match against AC Milan

Sassuolo recorded one win and four losses in their last five matches

Torino registered two wins, one draw, and two losses in their past five games

Statistics

Sassuolo scored 1.21 goals and conceded 1.32 goals on average last season

Sassuolo conceded an average of 1.24 goals per home game last season

Torino conceded an average of 2.27 goals per away game while scoring 1.13

Both teams scored in 19 of Torino's 38 games last season

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head matches in history

Torino won both encounters, while Sassuolo are yet to win

The last meeting on May 8, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Torino

The goal difference stands at 3-1 in favor of Torino

Key Players

Armand Laurienté recorded 3 goals and 8 assists in home matches last season

Cristian Volpato contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in home games

Nikola Vlašić scored 1 away goal with an average away rating of 7.56

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper Arijanet Murić recorded an average rating of 7.18 at home

Diego Mascardi starts in goal for Torino

Sassuolo recorded 8 clean sheets last season, while Torino registered 12

Influences

Home advantage for Sassuolo on the grass pitch at the MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

An average of 3.2 goals are scored per match at this stadium

Both teams scored in 60% of matches at the MAPEI Stadium

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