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Sassuolo – Torino2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sassuolo
1.40
Total xG
2.51
Torino
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sassuolo | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Armand Laurienté not in squad (7 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Kristian Thorstvedt on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Cristian Volpato not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Nemanja Matic not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) | ||
| Nikola Vlašić not in squad (8 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Giovanni Simeone not in squad (11 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Rafa Obrador not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marcus Pedersen not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Saúl Coco not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) |
Key factors
- Home win prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Sassuolo with a 42% probability and projects 1.40 expected goals
- Tactical dominance: Sassuolo averaged 55.2% possession and 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Historical edge: Torino won both of the previous direct duels
Risks
- Away struggles: Torino conceded an average of 2.27 goals per away game last season
- Sassuolo absences: None of the regular offensive key players are in the starting lineup according to squad impact data
- Low offensive threat: Torino averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last five games
All probabilities
Result
Sassuolo42%
Draw30%
Torino28%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
Sassuolo or draw72%
Torino or draw58%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
0:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Torino: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
- Sassuolo: 40% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 15)
- Torino: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 12 games)
Lineups
Sassuolo 4-3-3 · Torino 5-3-2
Sassuolo
- 49 A. Murić
- 46 S. Cinquegrano
- 21 J. Idzes
- 16 F. Leysen
- 3 J. Doig
- 17 V. Adžić
- 18 N. Matić
- 50 D. Bakola
- 7 C. Volpato
- 9 K. Bowie
- 45 A. Lauriente
Torino
- 26 D. Mascardi
- 29 N. Fortini
- 15 P. Comuzzo
- 23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
- 5 E. Cömert
- 77 A. Cacciamani
- 66 G. Gineitis
- 28 K. Fitz-Jim
- 10 N. Vlašić
- 18 G. Simeone
- 19 C. Adams
Substitutes
- 33 Rafael Burguera
- 25 B. Domínguez
- 80 S. Turati
- 10 D. Berardi
- 12 G. Satalino
- 44 E. Iannoni
- 42 K. Thorstvedt
- 26 C. Odenthal
- 77 N. Pierini
- 35 L. Lipani
- 8 A. Ghion
- 2 F. Missori
- 14 G. Kulla
- 17 S. Kulenovic
- 44 A. Ismajli
- 91 D. Zapata Banguera
- 92 A. Njie
- 14 F. Anjorin
- 7 Z. Aboukhlal
- 21 A. Dembélé
- 6 E. İlkhan
- 1 A. Paleari
- 11 G. Oristanio
- 76 L. Siviero
- 25 M. Pellini
- 79 A. Luongo
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