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Serie A

Atalanta - Bologna

08/31/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Atalanta
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Bologna
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
ATABOL

Atalanta

Attack strength (1.31x league average)
+0.57
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.16
Nicola Zalewski not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Lazar Samardžić on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Bologna

Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Santiago Castro not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists)
Juan Miranda on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Remo Freuler not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atalanta: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

27%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 48% probability, expecting 1.65 goals for the hosts
  • Atalanta averaged 4.6 shots on target with 54.6% possession in recent matches
  • Bologna scores more frequently recently with 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.4
Risk Factors
  • Santiago Castro (7 goals) is missing for Bologna, leaving only about 90% of active goals share
  • Atalanta's goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.5
Overview

Atalanta (7th place, 3 points) host Bologna (14th place, 0 points) at the Gewiss Stadium

Serie A match on August 31, 2026, 8:45 PM

The home side started with a win, while the visitors suffered a defeat

Form

Atalanta won their last two matches, form sequence LDDWW

Bologna lost their last game, form sequence DWWDL

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Both teams have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss recently

Statistics

Atalanta averaged 1.34 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded

Strong home defense conceding only 0.79 goals per game on average

Bologna score 1.30 goals on average away from home while conceding 1.0

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with 2 wins each in 5 head-to-head matches

Goal difference stands at 5:3 in favor of Atalanta

The last match on May 17, 2026, ended in a 1-0 away win for Bologna

Key Players

Gianluca Scamacca is the top attacker for the hosts with 10 goals

Charles De Ketelaere contributed 3 goals and 5 assists with a 7.14 rating

Giacomo Raspadori scored 3 goals with a 7.00 average rating

Goalkeepers

Marco Carnesecchi holds an average rating of 7.07

Lukasz Skorupski has a rating of 6.72

Both keepers bolster their respective defenses

Influences

Home advantage at the Gewiss Stadium on natural grass

Historically low-scoring matches at this venue with 1.2 goals per game on average

The BTTS rate at this stadium is 40%

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