Match report →
Atalanta – Bologna1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Atalanta
1.65
Total xG
2.78
Bologna
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atalanta | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | +0.57 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Nicola Zalewski not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Lazar Samardžić on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Santiago Castro not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Juan Miranda on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Remo Freuler not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 48% probability, expecting 1.65 goals for the hosts
- Atalanta averaged 4.6 shots on target with 54.6% possession in recent matches
- Bologna scores more frequently recently with 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.4
Risks
- Santiago Castro (7 goals) is missing for Bologna, leaving only about 90% of active goals share
- Atalanta's goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.5
All probabilities
Result
Atalanta48%
Draw27%
Bologna25%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Atalanta or draw75%
Bologna or draw52%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atalanta: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Atalanta 4-3-3 · Bologna 4-2-3-1
Atalanta
- 29 M. Carnesecchi
- 77 D. Zappacosta
- 3 K. Odilon
- 42 G. Scalvini
- 23 S. Kolašinac
- 8 M. Pašalić
- 70 G. Gaetano
- 13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
- 9 G. Scamacca
- 18 G. Raspadori
Bologna
- 1 Ł. Skorupski
- 2 E. Holm
- 5 E. Fauske Helland
- 14 T. Heggem
- 23 A. Alhassane Bonkan
- 4 T. Pobega
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 10 F. Bernardeschi
- 21 J. Odgaard
- 28 N. Cambiaghi
- 91 R. Piccoli
Substitutes
- 47 L. Bernasconi
- 16 R. Bellanova
- 59 N. Zalewski
- 57 M. Sportiello
- 90 N. Krstović
- 10 L. Samardžić
- 99 E. Elmas
- 6 I. Sulemana
- 40 R. Obrić
- 49 F. Cassa
- 95 P. Vismara
- 3 A. Theate
- 41 M. Vitík
- 29 L. De Silvestri
- 25 M. Pessina
- 20 N. Zortea
- 6 N. Moro
- 33 J. Miranda González
- 7 R. Orsolini
- 16 N. Casale
- 9 A. Dovbyk
- 72 U. Happonen
- 8 M. Amondarain
- 18 M. Libra Alvarado
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