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Serie A

Juventus - Parma

08/29/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Juventus
2.1
Total xG
2.7
Parma
0.6
Most Likely Scores

2:0

15%

3:0

10%

1:1

10%

2:1

9%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
JUVPAR

Juventus

Attack strength (1.58x league average)
+1.06
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.23
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap)
+0.07
Kenan Yıldız not in squad (10 goals, 6 assists)
Weston McKennie not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists)
Dušan Vlahović not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists)
Andrea Cambiaso on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Lloyd Kelly on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
40% of goal output missing (only 61% available)

Parma

Attack weakness (0.61x league average)
-0.59
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap)
-0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.01
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 77% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juventus: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Parma: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

71%

Draw

20%

Away Win

8%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

92%

Away or Draw

29%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Strong mathematical backing with a calculated home win probability of 71%
  • Juventus dominated recent matches, averaging 63.8% possession and 6.2 shots on target
  • Historical dominance for the hosts with an 8:4 goals record in recent head-to-head encounters
Risk Factors
  • Kenan Yıldız, Weston McKennie, Dušan Vlahović, Andrea Cambiaso, Lloyd Kelly are missing, leaving only 61% of the usual goal threat available
  • Juventus's goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging just 1.0 goal per game compared to their season average of 1.8
Overview

Juventus (8th place, 3 points) host Parma (15th place, 0 points) at the Juventus Stadium

Serie A fixture on August 29, 2026, 8:45 PM

The home side enters the match as clear favorites

Form

Juventus has a form of DWLDW, coming off a victory in their last match

Parma recorded a form of LLWWL and suffered a defeat in their most recent game

Both sides have secured exactly 2 wins in their last 5 matches

Statistics

Juventus conceded an average of only 0.73 goals per home game last season

Parma averaged just 0.75 goals scored per away match

Across the full season, the hosts scored 61 goals compared to 28 goals for the visitors

Head-to-Head

Out of 4 head-to-head matches, Juventus won 2, with 1 draw and 1 win for Parma

The total goal difference stands at 8:4 in favor of Juventus

The last meeting on February 1, 2026, ended in a clear 4-1 victory for Juventus

Key Players

Jonathan David has been in form with 3 goals in his last 5 matches and a 6.72 season rating

Pierre Kalulu commands the defense with a solid season rating of 7.00

Adrián Bernabé leads Parma's midfield with 3 goals and an average rating of 7.08

Goalkeepers

Edoardo Corvi has made 17 appearances for Parma with a stable average rating of 6.90

Juventus kept a total of 16 clean sheets during the previous league campaign

Influences

Historical matches at this venue on grass show a low average of 1.6 goals per game

Juventus benefited from a strong defensive home record, conceding only 16 goals in 22 matches

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