Match report →
Juventus – Parma2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Juventus
2.12
Total xG
2.73
Parma
0.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Juventus | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.58x league average) | +1.06 | |
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −0.59 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Kenan Yıldız not in squad (10 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Weston McKennie not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Dušan Vlahović not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Andrea Cambiaso on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Lloyd Kelly on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 61% available) | ||
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 77% available) |
Key factors
- Strong mathematical backing with a calculated home win probability of 71%
- Juventus dominated recent matches, averaging 63.8% possession and 6.2 shots on target
- Historical dominance for the hosts with an 8:4 goals record in recent head-to-head encounters
Risks
- Kenan Yıldız, Weston McKennie, Dušan Vlahović, Andrea Cambiaso, Lloyd Kelly are missing, leaving only 61% of the usual goal threat available
- Juventus's goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging just 1.0 goal per game compared to their season average of 1.8
All probabilities
Result
Juventus71%
Draw20%
Parma8%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Juventus or draw92%
Parma or draw29%
No draw80%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
2:0
15%
3:0
10%
1:1
10%
2:1
9%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juventus: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Parma: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Juventus 4-4-2 · Parma 4-4-2
Juventus
- 25 G. Vicario
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 2 M. Çelik
- 7 F. Conceição
- 5 M. Locatelli
- 12 D. Soares de Paulo
- 13 J. Boga
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
- 30 J. David
Parma
- 40 E. Corvi
- 15 E. Del Prato
- 37 M. Troilo
- 72 D. Drobnič
- 14 E. Valeri
- 27 S. Britschgi
- 32 C. Ordoñez
- 10 A. Bernabe Garcia
- 16 M. Keita
- 76 S. Lontani
- 19 E. Toure
Substitutes
- 1 K. Grabara
- 31 N. González
- 32 J. Cabal Murillo
- 4 F. Gatti
- 24 D. Rugani
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 20 A. Cambiaso
- 14 A. Milik
- 6 L. Kelly
- 17 K. Alajbegović
- 18 J. Ekhator
- 80 G. Fabbian
- 20 M. Frigan
- 8 B. Cremaschi
- 3 N. Ndiaye
- 24 O. Jensen
- 11 P. Almqvist
- 5 L. Valenti
- 29 F. Carboni
- 30 G. Daffara
- 23 N. Elphege
- 9 J. Romero
- 25 T. De Martis
- 7 O. Diallo Thiao
- 75 A. Mazzocchi
- 47 A. Salam Konaté
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