Match report ā
Monza ā Udinese2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Monza
0.95
Total xG
2.36
Udinese
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monza | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.40 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | ā0.34 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | ā0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | ā0.12 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | +0.02 | |
| NicolĆ² Zaniolo not in squad (5 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Arthur Atta not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Christian Kabasele not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Thomas Kristensen not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Adam Buksa not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Lennon Miller on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kingsley Ehizibue not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 0% of the active goal share is available for the home team
- Udinese averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- The mathematical model favors Udinese with a calculated win probability of 46%
Risks
- Four sidelined players weaken Monza's squad, including M. Pessina and P. Ciurria
- Udinese's goal production is stalling with a recent average of 0.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.21
- Limited data availability regarding player form data for Monza
All probabilities
Result
Monza24%
Draw30%
Udinese46%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Double chance
Monza or draw54%
Udinese or draw76%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
12%
0:0
11%
0:2
9%
1:2
9%
2:3
Final score
Lineups
Monza 3-4-2-1 Ā· Udinese 3-4-2-1
Monza
- 20 D. Thiam
- 60 E. Kouadio
- 3 L. Lucchesi
- 44 A. Carboni
- 19 S. Birindelli
- 8 M. Foe Ondoa
- 80 M. Mout
- 7 R. Chaby Mangas
- 28 A. Colpani
- 10 P. Cutrone
- 9 G. Pereira De Sousa
Udinese
- 40 M. Okoye
- 14 J. Abankwah
- 28 O. Solet Bomawoko
- 77 E. Ebosse
- 23 M. Vojvoda
- 8 J. Karlstrƶm
- 24 J. Piotrowski
- 11 H. Kamara
- 46 U. GĆ³mez Etxebarria
- 32 J. Ekkelenkamp
- 9 K. Davis
Substitutes
- 46 J. Robinson
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro
- 90 M. Folorunsho
- 6 V. Ivaylov Antov
- 43 A. Strajnar
- 15 F. Delli Carri
- 24 A. Bakoune
- 21 L. Colombo
- 11 O. Forson
- 47 D. Carvalho
- 5 Y. Maye
- 50 A. Ballabio
- 41 B. Mrozek
- 79 D. PejiÄiÄ
- 7 I. Gueye
- 15 V. Bayo
- 38 L. Miller
- 2 S. Goglichidze
- 20 J. Arizala
- 6 O. Zarraga EgaƱa
- 4 S. Lovric
- 93 D. Padelli
- 13 N. Bertola
- 45 G. Vinciati
- 99 E. Piana
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