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Serie A

Monza - Udinese

08/29/2026, 04:30 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Monza
1.0
Total xG
2.4
Udinese
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

12%

0:0

11%

0:2

9%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
MONUDI

Monza

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.40
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.34
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
+0.02
Full strength squad available

Udinese

Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.12
Nicolò Zaniolo not in squad (5 goals, 6 assists)
Arthur Atta not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Christian Kabasele not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Thomas Kristensen not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Adam Buksa not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Lennon Miller on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Kingsley Ehizibue not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

24%

Draw

30%

Away Win

46%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

54%

Away or Draw

76%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Only 0% of the active goal share is available for the home team
  • Udinese averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • The mathematical model favors Udinese with a calculated win probability of 46%
Risk Factors
  • Four sidelined players weaken Monza's squad, including M. Pessina and P. Ciurria
  • Udinese's goal production is stalling with a recent average of 0.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.21
  • Limited data availability regarding player form data for Monza
Overview

Monza vs Udinese at the U-Power Stadium

Serie A match on August 29, 2026, 6:30 PM

Both teams seek their first win of the season after a slow start

Monza sit in 18th place while Udinese are in 11th

The visitors are slight favorites with a 46% win probability

Form

Monza hold a form of LWL after a 1-4 loss to Inter

The hosts recorded 1 win and 2 defeats

Udinese travel with a form of WLLWD following a 1-1 draw with Como

The visitors have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Monza score an average of 1.33 goals and concede 1.67 per match

Their only home fixture resulted in a 3-0 victory

Udinese averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.26 conceded last season

On the road, the visitors conceded 1.17 goals on average while scoring 1.17

Head-to-Head

Only 2 head-to-head league matches have taken place so far

Each team has claimed 1 victory

The goals are perfectly balanced at 3-3

The last meeting on May 11, 2025, ended in a 2-1 away win for Monza

Key Players

Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela scored twice at the stadium with a rating of 8.34

Patrick Cutrone contributed 1 assist with a rating of 7.52

Eddy Kouadio stands out with a 7.39 rating in home matches

Keinan Davis is the top threat with 10 goals and 4 assists

Jurgen Ekkelenkamp contributed 5 goals with a rising form trend

Oumar Solet anchors the defense with a season average of 7.12

Goalkeepers

Demba Thiam guards the net with a home rating of 6.54

Maduka Okoye is in goal for the opposition, having kept 11 clean sheets last season

Okoye's form is on the rise with a recent rating of 7.22

Influences

Monza claimed a defensively stable 3-0 victory in their only home fixture this season

Matches at this stadium have averaged 2.0 goals per game

The game will be played on natural grass

Udinese played a balanced game away from home last season, averaging 1.17 goals scored and conceded

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