Match report →
Frosinone – Venezia3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Frosinone
0.94
Total xG
2.03
Venezia
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Frosinone | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.71 | |
| Attack weakness (0.53x league average) | −0.66 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.37 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form trend favors the hosts: Frosinone's performance is stable, whereas Venezia shows a negative trend
- Tactical threat: Frosinone averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Consistent scoring: Advanced stats show Frosinone scores consistently at around 1.7 goals per game
Risks
- Away defensive vulnerability: Venezia conceded an average of 5.0 goals per away match this season
- Limited data available for head-to-head history and detailed player statistics
All probabilities
Result
Frosinone29%
Draw34%
Venezia37%
Double chance
Frosinone or draw63%
Venezia or draw71%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
0:1
13%
1:0
11%
0:2
8%
3:2
Final score
Lineups
Frosinone 4-2-3-1 · Venezia 3-5-2
Frosinone
- 22 L. Palmisani
- 20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
- 3 G. Calvani
- 2 G. Cittadini
- 79 G. Bracaglia
- 14 G. Calò
- 73 P. Masini
- 40 S. Fini
- 10 R. Schmid
- 17 G. Kvernadze
- 9 A. Raimondo
Venezia
- 1 F. Stankovic
- 3 J. Schingtienne
- 17 A. Bella-Kotchap
- 25 R. Halhal
- 18 A. Hainaut
- 71 E. Pérez Muñoz
- 6 G. Busio
- 19 S. Sohm
- 5 R. Haps
- 7 A. Rrahmani
- 45 A. Adams
Substitutes
- 11 D. Birligea
- 27 F. Grillitsch
- 71 A. Terzić
- 70 L. Hasa
- 24 A. Zerbin
- 91 S. Desplanches
- 12 M. Pisseri
- 16 M. Cichella
- 7 F. Ghedjemis
- 30 I. Monterisi
- 74 O. Fayed
- 89 T. Bobček
- 34 A. El Azzouzi
- 5 W. Amey
- 90 E. Tchato Mbiayi
- 2 M. Moreno
- 14 T. Rendall Correia
- 8 L. Dabo
- 70 P. Mazzocchi
- 56 K. Lisman
- 77 A. Fernández Casino
- 21 T. Helgason
- 96 L. Montipò
- 10 J. Zamora
- 20 S. Sagrado
- 36 L. Berardi
- 30 M. Dagasso
- 95 A. Gomes Furtado
- 29 L. Lauberbach
- 55 S. Panada
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