Match report →
Udinese – Lazio1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Udinese
1.33
Total xG
2.29
Lazio
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Udinese | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Christian Kabasele on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Lennon Miller on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Matteo Cancellieri on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Boulaye Dia not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Adam Marusic not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 65% available) |
Key factors
- Udinese is scoring more frequently recently averaging 1.4 goals compared to their season average
- Historical advantage: Udinese is undefeated in their last 4 direct matches against Lazio
- Mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 44%
Risks
- Matteo Cancellieri, Boulaye Dia, Adam Marusic are missing for Lazio leaving only 66% of goal threat available
- Udinese played highly counter-oriented recently averaging only 41% ball possession
- Dacia Arena has a low-scoring history with an average of only 1.8 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Udinese44%
Draw31%
Lazio25%
Double chance
Udinese or draw75%
Lazio or draw56%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
1:0
12%
0:0
12%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Udinese: 41% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 17)
- Udinese with Keinan Davis starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (20/8 games, last 29)
- Lazio: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Lazio: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Udinese 3-4-2-1 · Lazio 4-3-3
Udinese
- 40 M. Okoye
- 14 J. Abankwah
- 28 O. Solet Bomawoko
- 77 E. Ebosse
- 23 M. Vojvoda
- 8 J. Karlström
- 24 J. Piotrowski
- 11 H. Kamara
- 46 U. Gómez Etxebarria
- 32 J. Ekkelenkamp
- 9 K. Davis
Lazio
- 35 C. Mandas
- 15 R. Floriani
- 5 D. Doekhi
- 25 O. Nielsen
- 17 N. Varela Tavares
- 16 D. Frattesi
- 21 R. Belahyane
- 24 K. Taylor
- 11 G. Isaksen
- 9 A. Pinamonti
- 10 M. Zaccagni
Substitutes
- 91 L. Jovanović
- 30 G. Chakvetadze
- 41 B. Mrozek
- 7 I. Gueye
- 27 C. Kabasele
- 15 V. Bayo
- 38 L. Miller
- 6 O. Zarraga Egaña
- 4 S. Lovric
- 93 D. Padelli
- 13 N. Bertola
- 45 G. Vinciati
- 23 A. Pedraza Sag
- 37 J. Šutalo
- 80 A. Gudmundsson
- 22 M. Cancellieri
- 29 M. Lazzari
- 14 T. Noslin
- 40 E. Motta
- 71 V. Farcomeni
- 63 F. Serra
- 28 A. Przyborek
- 47 D. Renzetti
- 33 R. Bordon
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →