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Serie A

Udinese - Lazio

09/07/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Udinese
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Lazio
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

1:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
UDILAZ

Udinese

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Christian Kabasele on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Lennon Miller on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Lazio

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.11
Matteo Cancellieri on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Boulaye Dia not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Adam Marusic not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Udinese: 41% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 17)

  • 2
    Udinese with Keinan Davis starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (20/8 games, last 29)

  • 3
    Lazio: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Lazio: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

31%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Udinese is scoring more frequently recently averaging 1.4 goals compared to their season average
  • Historical advantage: Udinese is undefeated in their last 4 direct matches against Lazio
  • Mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 44%
Risk Factors
  • Matteo Cancellieri, Boulaye Dia, Adam Marusic are missing for Lazio leaving only 66% of goal threat available
  • Udinese played highly counter-oriented recently averaging only 41% ball possession
  • Dacia Arena has a low-scoring history with an average of only 1.8 goals per match
Overview

Udinese host Lazio at the Dacia Arena

Serie A match on September 7, 2026, 8:45 PM

Mid-table clash between 9th and 7th place

Both teams aim to secure crucial points early in the season

Form

Udinese form: LWDWW with 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss

Lazio form: LWLWW with 3 wins and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Udinese enters the game with positive momentum

Statistics

Udinese average 1.18 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded

Lazio score an average of 1.08 goals and concede 1.05

Dacia Arena averages 1.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in 40% of matches at this venue

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches overall

1 win for Udinese, 0 away wins for Lazio, and 3 draws

Goal difference of 7:6 in favor of Udinese

The last meeting ended in an exciting 3:3 draw

Key Players

Keinan Davis with 10 goals and 4 assists this season

Jurgen Ekkelenkamp contributed 5 goals and 3 assists

Hassane Kamara with rising form and 2 goals recently

Goalkeepers

Maduka Okoye kept 11 clean sheets for Udinese this season

Christos Mandas starts for Lazio with a recent 6.98 rating

Both keepers are in stable condition

Influences

Home advantage on natural grass at the Dacia Arena

Udinese recorded 6 home clean sheets this season

Low-scoring venue history with 1.8 average goals

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