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Serie A

Genoa - Como

09/04/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
Genoa
1.0
Total xG
2.3
Como
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

12%

0:2

9%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
GENCOM

Genoa

Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap)
-0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.10
Vitinha not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
Brooke Norton-Cuffy not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 79% available)

Como

Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.07
JesĂșs RodrĂ­guez not in squad (2 goals, 9 assists)
Marc Oliver Kempf not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Genoa: opponent scores first in 9 of 10 games (90%)

  • 2
    Como: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

31%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Como dominated recent matches with an average of 63.6% possession and 5.8 shots on target
  • Como is unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw
  • Mathematical analysis predicts an away win probability of 43% and expects 1.32 goals for Como
Risk Factors
  • Como's goal production has slowed down recently with 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 2.1
  • Genoa's goal production is also stalling with 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.3
  • Genoa averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Genoa (17th place, 0 points) host Como (8th place, 4 points) at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Serie A match on September 4, 2026, 8:45 PM

Como enters as favorites while Genoa looks to bounce back from a poor start

Form

Form Genoa: LLWLL

Genoa recorded 1 win and 4 losses in their recent matches

Form Como: WWWDW

Como is in great form with 4 wins and 1 draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Genoa scored 1.08 goals per game this season and conceded 1.34 goals

Como is stronger offensively with 1.71 goals per game while conceding only 0.76 goals

Genoa averaged 1.1 goals at home

Como scores an average of 1.67 goals away

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in history

Como dominated recent meetings with 2 wins and 2 draws

Genoa is still waiting for their first win against Como

The last duel ended 2-0 for Como

Key Players

Lorenzo Colombo leads Genoa's attack with 7 goals and 1 assist this season

Leo ØstigÄrd stabilizes the defense with an average rating of 7.13

Nico Paz shines for Como with 12 goals and 6 assists

Anastasios Douvikas is the most dangerous away attacker with 14 goals

Lucas Da Cunha has already contributed 6 goals and 5 assists

Not nominated for Genoa: Vitinha (5 goals, 1 assist), Brooke Norton-Cuffy (2 goals, 1 assist)

Not nominated for Como: JesĂșs RodrĂ­guez (2 goals, 9 assists), Marc Oliver Kempf (4 goals, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Justin Bijlow made 16 appearances so far with an average rating of 6.92

Jean Butez played 38 matches for Como and achieved 19 clean sheets

Influences

Genoa's home stadium averages 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 home matches

The grass pitch at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris provides ideal conditions

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