Match report →
Genoa – Como1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Genoa
0.96
Total xG
2.28
Como
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Genoa | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Vitinha not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Jesús Rodríguez not in squad (2 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Marc Oliver Kempf not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Como dominated recent matches with an average of 63.6% possession and 5.8 shots on target
- Como is unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw
- Mathematical analysis predicts an away win probability of 43% and expects 1.32 goals for Como
Risks
- Como's goal production has slowed down recently with 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 2.1
- Genoa's goal production is also stalling with 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.3
- Genoa averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Genoa25%
Draw31%
Como43%
Double chance
Genoa or draw57%
Como or draw75%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
12%
0:2
9%
1:2
9%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Genoa: opponent scores first in 9 of 10 games (90%)
- Como: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)
Lineups
Genoa 3-4-1-2 · Como 4-2-3-1
Genoa
- 1 J. Bijlow
- 27 A. Marcandalli
- 5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
- 20 S. Sabelli
- 97 D. Sow
- 8 T. Baldanzi
- 77 M. Ellertsson
- 32 M. Frendrup
- 29 L. Colombo
- 18 M. Osmajić
Como
- 1 J. Butez
- 27 Y. Couto
- 4 J. Naveros
- 99 T. Chalobah
- 3 ?. Valle Gómez
- 5 M. Perrone
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 11 A. Diao Diaoune
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
- 20 M. Baturina
- 9 A. Douvikas
Substitutes
- 11 F. Meichtry
- 25 H. Traorè
- 92 S. El Shaarawy
- 3 K. Ehizibue
- 39 D. Sommariva
- 10 J. Messias
- 9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
- 34 S. Otoa
- 4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
- 99 F. Stolz
- 71 S. Wiafe
- 74 M. Doucoure
- 2 M. Mitaj
- 31 D. Puczka
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 53 W. Kambwala
- 97 R. Lynch Sanchez
- 15 A. Lahdo
- 90 M. Kean
- 21 S. Ricci
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 17 J. Rodríguez Caraballo
- 2 M. Kempf
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 18 E. Goldaniga
- 13 A. Dossena
- 22 M. Vigorito
- 30 M. Liberali
- 16 K. da Silva
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