Serie A
Cagliari - Lecce
09/07/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.0
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
15%1:0
13%0:1
10%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Cagliari
Lecce
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
34%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
62%
Under 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Cagliari averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches with 48.8% possession
- Lecce played counter-oriented in recent matches with an average of 35.4% possession
- The mathematical model calculates a 39% probability for a home win by Cagliari
Risk Factors
- Cagliari has to play with a reduced starting XI strength of 72% of their usual goal threat
- The model predicts a low probability of 34% for over 2.5 goals
- Lecce conceded an average of 1.30 goals per away match last season
Overview
Cagliari (12th place, 3 points) host Lecce (14th place, 3 points) at the Sardegna Arena
Serie A match on September 7, 2026, 6:30 PM
Both teams have recorded one win and one loss so far
Form
Cagliari's form is WWWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The hosts recently suffered 2 consecutive losses
Lecce has a form of WWLWL
Lecce lost their last match 0-4 against Roma
Statistics
Cagliari scored avg. 1.05 goals and conceded avg. 1.39 goals per game last season
In home games, Cagliari scored avg. 1.05 and conceded avg. 1.10 goals
Lecce averaged 0.74 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded
Lecce scored an average of 0.75 goals per away game
Head-to-Head
4 head-to-head matches in the database
Both teams won 2 matches each with 0 draws
Goal difference of 6:5 in favor of Cagliari
The last encounter ended 0-2 for Lecce
Key Players
Paul Mendy recorded 2 goals in 9 appearances
Juan RodrĂguez played 17 games and scored 1 goal
Adam Obert has 35 appearances and provided 3 assists
Santiago Pierotti scored 1 goal and made 2 assists in 37 games
Tiago Gabriel scored 2 goals in 37 matches
Nikola Stulic scored 4 goals in 34 matches
Goalkeepers
Elia Caprile in Cagliari's goal has an average rating of 6.92
Cagliari kept 8 clean sheets last season
Wladimiro Falcone in Lecce's goal has an average rating of 6.84
Lecce recorded 10 clean sheets last season
Influences
The match will be played on natural grass
Sardegna Arena saw an average of 2.0 goals per match in recent games
The BTTS rate stands at 40%
Cagliari scored 22 goals and conceded 23 goals at home