Match report →
Cagliari – Lecce1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Cagliari
1.13
Total xG
2.05
Lecce
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cagliari | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.70 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 0.8 season average) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 44% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Cagliari averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches with 48.8% possession
- Lecce played counter-oriented in recent matches with an average of 35.4% possession
- The mathematical model calculates a 39% probability for a home win by Cagliari
Risks
- Cagliari has to play with a reduced starting XI strength of 72% of their usual goal threat
- The model predicts a low probability of 34% for over 2.5 goals
- Lecce conceded an average of 1.30 goals per away match last season
All probabilities
Result
Cagliari39%
Draw34%
Lecce28%
Double chance
Cagliari or draw72%
Lecce or draw61%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
Lineups
Cagliari 4-3-2-1 · Lecce 4-2-3-1
Cagliari
- 1 E. Caprile
- 2 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
- 14 A. Deiola
- 15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
- 33 A. Obert
- 8 M. Adopo
- 4 A. Romano
- 6 H. Winks
- 70 D. Maldini
- 10 J. Fazzini
- 31 P. Mendy
Lecce
- 30 W. Falcone
- 17 D. Melo Veiga
- 4 K. Gaspar
- 44 T. Coelho Oliveira
- 25 A. Gallo
- 20 I. Ilić
- 79 O. Ngom
- 50 S. Pierotti
- 29 L. Coulibaly
- 99 J. Monteiro
- 9 N. Štulić
Substitutes
- 39 A. Fadera
- 21 R. Gagliardini
- 27 J. Liteta
- 12 A. Sherri
- 17 M. Felici
- 79 Y. Massolin
- 20 R. Ciervo
- 23 B. Radunović
- 24 G. Aurelio
- 22 R. Kofler
- 36 N. Grandu
- 32 I. Sulev
- 30 A. Akakriki
- 35 A. Sugamele
- 7 A. Ahmed Fatah
- 2 A. Dembélé
- 18 G. Jean
- 3 C. Ndaba
- 14 Y. Maleh
- 5 J. Siebert
- 10 M. Berisha
- 11 K. Jocelyn N’dri
- 1 M. Bleve
- 28 O. Gorter
- 33 P. Penev
- 16 O. Gandelman
- 8 S. Fofana
- 22 F. Esteban Sánchez
- 31 E. Scott
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →