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Serie A

Cagliari - Lecce

09/07/2026, 04:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Cagliari
1.1
Total xG
2.0
Lecce
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
CAGLEC

Cagliari

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
44% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

Lecce

Attack weakness (0.57x league average)
-0.70
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.2 vs 0.8 season average)
+0.11
Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.8 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

34%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Cagliari averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches with 48.8% possession
  • Lecce played counter-oriented in recent matches with an average of 35.4% possession
  • The mathematical model calculates a 39% probability for a home win by Cagliari
Risk Factors
  • Cagliari has to play with a reduced starting XI strength of 72% of their usual goal threat
  • The model predicts a low probability of 34% for over 2.5 goals
  • Lecce conceded an average of 1.30 goals per away match last season
Overview

Cagliari (12th place, 3 points) host Lecce (14th place, 3 points) at the Sardegna Arena

Serie A match on September 7, 2026, 6:30 PM

Both teams have recorded one win and one loss so far

Form

Cagliari's form is WWWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts recently suffered 2 consecutive losses

Lecce has a form of WWLWL

Lecce lost their last match 0-4 against Roma

Statistics

Cagliari scored avg. 1.05 goals and conceded avg. 1.39 goals per game last season

In home games, Cagliari scored avg. 1.05 and conceded avg. 1.10 goals

Lecce averaged 0.74 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded

Lecce scored an average of 0.75 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in the database

Both teams won 2 matches each with 0 draws

Goal difference of 6:5 in favor of Cagliari

The last encounter ended 0-2 for Lecce

Key Players

Paul Mendy recorded 2 goals in 9 appearances

Juan RodrĂ­guez played 17 games and scored 1 goal

Adam Obert has 35 appearances and provided 3 assists

Santiago Pierotti scored 1 goal and made 2 assists in 37 games

Tiago Gabriel scored 2 goals in 37 matches

Nikola Stulic scored 4 goals in 34 matches

Goalkeepers

Elia Caprile in Cagliari's goal has an average rating of 6.92

Cagliari kept 8 clean sheets last season

Wladimiro Falcone in Lecce's goal has an average rating of 6.84

Lecce recorded 10 clean sheets last season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass

Sardegna Arena saw an average of 2.0 goals per match in recent games

The BTTS rate stands at 40%

Cagliari scored 22 goals and conceded 23 goals at home

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