Match report →
Fiorentina – Torino1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Fiorentina
1.74
Total xG
2.67
Torino
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fiorentina | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.59x league average) | +0.83 | |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.69 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.39 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Albert Gudmundsson not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Cher Ndour on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Dodô not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 80% of goal output missing (only 28% available) | ||
| Giovanni Simeone on the bench (11 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Marcus Pedersen not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 68% available) |
Key factors
- Only 29% of attacking threat available, without Albert Gudmundsson, Cher Ndour, and Dodô
- The mathematical prediction favors Fiorentina with a 55% home win probability
- Fiorentina averaged 4.6 shots on target with 44.6% possession in recent matches
Risks
- Giovanni Simeone and Marcus Pedersen missing, only 69% of attacking threat available
- Torino have only 4 days of rest since their last match
- Torino conceded an average of 2.27 goals per away game last season
All probabilities
Result
Fiorentina55%
Draw26%
Torino18%
Double chance
Fiorentina or draw82%
Torino or draw45%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Torino: 5 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
Lineups
Fiorentina 4-3-3 · Torino 3-1-4-2
Fiorentina
- 43 D. de Gea Quintana
- 17 J. Neto Lopes
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 33 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
- 21 V. Valdepeñas Talavera
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 42 C. Inao Oulaï
- 4 M. Brescianini
- 30 F. Mastantuono
- 32 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
- 25 A. Njie
Torino
- 20 L. Estella Perri
- 5 E. Cömert
- 23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
- 15 P. Comuzzo
- 8 R. Mandragora
- 29 N. Fortini
- 66 G. Gineitis
- 28 K. Fitz-Jim
- 77 A. Cacciamani
- 19 C. Adams
- 10 N. Vlašić
Substitutes
- 29 D. Gnonto
- 20 A. Jiménez Sánchez
- 23 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
- 28 P. Pereira Gonçalves
- 19 L. Lezzerini
- 27 C. Ndour
- 53 O. Christensen
- 5 M. Pongracic
- 2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
- 6 L. Ranieri
- 14 A. Atta
- 2 N. Patterson
- 21 D. Santos Bragança
- 17 S. Kulenovic
- 44 A. Ismajli
- 18 G. Simeone
- 91 D. Zapata Banguera
- 7 Z. Aboukhlal
- 6 E. İlkhan
- 3 C. Biraghi
- 11 G. Oristanio
- 45 R. Belghali
- 26 D. Mascardi
- 76 L. Siviero
- 79 A. Luongo
- 63 M. Carrascosa Moreno
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