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Serie A

Fiorentina - Torino

09/05/2026, 01:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Fiorentina
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Torino
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FIOTOR

Fiorentina

Attack strength (1.59x league average)
+0.83
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.39
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.00
Albert Gudmundsson not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Cher Ndour on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Dodô not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
80% of goal output missing (only 28% available)

Torino

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.69
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
Giovanni Simeone on the bench (11 goals, 0 assists)
Marcus Pedersen not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Torino: 5 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

26%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Only 29% of attacking threat available, without Albert Gudmundsson, Cher Ndour, and Dodô
  • The mathematical prediction favors Fiorentina with a 55% home win probability
  • Fiorentina averaged 4.6 shots on target with 44.6% possession in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Giovanni Simeone and Marcus Pedersen missing, only 69% of attacking threat available
  • Torino have only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Torino conceded an average of 2.27 goals per away game last season
Overview

Fiorentina (20th place, 0 points) host Torino (14th place, 0 points) at the Stadio Artemio Franchi

Serie A match on September 5, 2026, 3:00 PM

Both teams started with two defeats and are under early pressure

Form

Fiorentina's form is WDWLL with two consecutive defeats

Torino also started poorly with a DWLLL form and three consecutive losses

The hosts recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats

The visitors registered 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 defeats

Statistics

Fiorentina averaged 1.08 goals scored per game last season

Torino conceded an average of 2.27 goals per away game

The home team has a balanced home record of 21 goals scored and 21 goals conceded in 19 games

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won once and 3 matches ended in a draw

The last meeting ended in a 2:2 draw on February 7, 2026

The overall goal difference is 4:3 in favor of Fiorentina

Key Players

Rolando Mandragora scored 7 goals and provided 3 assists in 34 appearances

Moise Kean contributed 8 goals and 1 assist in 26 matches

Nicolò Fagioli recorded 2 goals and 3 assists in 33 games

Goalkeepers

David de Gea made 37 season appearances for Fiorentina

Lucas Perri starts in goal for Torino, while Alberto Paleari has 29 appearances

Fiorentina achieved 10 clean sheets last season, while Torino recorded 12

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Stadio Artemio Franchi

Torino travel with a weak away defense, having conceded 34 goals in 15 away matches

The venue historical matches averaged 2.0 goals per game

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