Match report →
Parma – Monza1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Parma
1.09
Total xG
2.19
Monza
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Parma | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| Adrián Bernabé not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 37% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Extremely balanced prediction: The mathematical model calculates nearly identical chances for a home win (34%) and an away win (34%)
- Significant blow for Parma: Midfielder Adrián Bernabé (3 goals, 1 assist) is missing, leaving the home side with only 75% of their usual offensive strength
- Tactical shooting advantage for the visitors: Monza averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Parma's 3.6
Risks
- Ongoing form crisis for Parma: The home side lost their last three consecutive matches and failed to score a single goal
- Absences in Monza's squad: The injuries of midfielder M. Pessina and attacker K. Maussi Martins reduce the visitors' squad options
All probabilities
Result
Parma34%
Draw33%
Monza34%
Double chance
Parma or draw66%
Monza or draw66%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
11%
1:0
11%
1:2
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Parma: 6 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Parma 3-4-2-1 · Monza 3-4-2-1
Parma
- 40 E. Corvi
- 15 E. Del Prato
- 34 D. Santos Silva
- 37 M. Troilo
- 27 S. Britschgi
- 32 C. Ordoñez
- 16 M. Keita
- 14 E. Valeri
- 80 G. Fabbian
- 19 E. Toure
- 9 J. Romero
Monza
- 20 D. Thiam
- 60 E. Kouadio
- 3 L. Lucchesi
- 44 A. Carboni
- 19 S. Birindelli
- 90 M. Folorunsho
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro
- 7 R. Chaby Mangas
- 11 O. Forson
- 46 J. Robinson
- 47 D. Carvalho
Substitutes
- 20 M. Frigan
- 8 B. Cremaschi
- 3 N. Ndiaye
- 11 P. Almqvist
- 5 L. Valenti
- 29 F. Carboni
- 22 S. Ghidotti
- 30 G. Daffara
- 72 D. Drobnič
- 23 N. Elphege
- 4 V. Sierro
- 25 T. De Martis
- 76 S. Lontani
- 47 A. Salam Konaté
- 2 S. Goglichidze
- 1 N. Törnqvist
- 6 V. Ivaylov Antov
- 43 A. Strajnar
- 24 A. Bakoune
- 28 A. Colpani
- 21 L. Colombo
- 5 Y. Maye
- 8 M. Foe Ondoa
- 80 M. Mout
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