Match report →
Juventus – AC Milan1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Juventus
1.69
Total xG
2.54
AC Milan
0.85
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Juventus | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.87 | |
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | +0.49 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Kenan Yıldız not in squad (10 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Weston McKennie not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Dušan Vlahović not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Andrea Cambiaso not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Lloyd Kelly on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 66% of goal output missing (only 42% available) | ||
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Davide Bartesaghi not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 93% available) |
Key factors
- Severe squad depletion for Juventus: With non-selected players Kenan Yıldız, Weston McKennie, Dušan Vlahović, Andrea Cambiaso, and Lloyd Kelly missing, only 43% of the usual starting XI strength is available
- Defensive strength of Juventus: Conceding only 0.89 goals per game with 16 clean sheets this season demonstrates a highly reliable defense
- Mathematical prediction: The model projects a 56% probability of a home win for Juventus with 1.69 expected home goals
Risks
- Juventus' stuttering offense: According to advanced stats, Juventus' recent goal production of 1.2 goals per match lags behind their season average of 1.8
- AC Milan's offensive upswing: The Milanese are currently scoring more frequently (1.8) compared to their season average of 1.5
- Historically low-scoring matches: Four of the last five head-to-head games ended in draws, with three of those finishing completely goalless at 0-0
All probabilities
Result
Juventus56%
Draw27%
AC Milan17%
Double chance
Juventus or draw83%
AC Milan or draw44%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juventus: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- AC Milan: 77% of all goals in the second half (10 of 13, last 12 games)
- Juventus: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
Lineups
Juventus 4-2-3-1 · AC Milan 3-4-2-1
Juventus
- 25 G. Vicario
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 2 M. Çelik
- 5 M. Locatelli
- 12 D. Soares de Paulo
- 7 F. Conceição
- 31 N. González
- 17 K. Alajbegović
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 34 M. Fuentes
- 5 K. De Winter
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 22 D. da Silva Moreira
- 14 L. Modrić
- 80 Y. Musah
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 12 A. Rabiot
- 56 A. Saelemaekers
- 9 G. Ramos
Substitutes
- 1 K. Grabara
- 13 J. Boga
- 27 N. Woltemade
- 4 F. Gatti
- 11 E. Zhegrova
- 24 D. Rugani
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 6 L. Kelly
- 43 F. Pagnucco
- 41 S. Owusu
- 21 S. Chukwueze
- 20 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
- 30 A. Jasari
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 11 C. Pulisic
- 1 P. Terracciano
- 23 F. Tomori
- 96 L. Torriani
- 8 R. Loftus-Cheek
- 73 F. Camarda
- 42 F. Terracciano
- 70 A. Cisse
- 13 S. Bocoum
- 28 C. Comotto
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