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Serie A

Juventus - AC Milan

09/06/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Juventus
1.7
Total xG
2.5
AC Milan
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
JUVAM

Juventus

Attack strength (1.46x league average)
+0.49
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Kenan Yıldız not in squad (10 goals, 6 assists)
Weston McKennie not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists)
Dušan Vlahović not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists)
Andrea Cambiaso not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Lloyd Kelly on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
66% of goal output missing (only 42% available)

AC Milan

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.87
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.09
Ruben Loftus-Cheek not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Davide Bartesaghi not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 93% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juventus: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    AC Milan: 77% of all goals in the second half (10 of 13, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Juventus: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

27%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad depletion for Juventus: With non-selected players Kenan Yıldız, Weston McKennie, Dušan Vlahović, Andrea Cambiaso, and Lloyd Kelly missing, only 43% of the usual starting XI strength is available
  • Defensive strength of Juventus: Conceding only 0.89 goals per game with 16 clean sheets this season demonstrates a highly reliable defense
  • Mathematical prediction: The model projects a 56% probability of a home win for Juventus with 1.69 expected home goals
Risk Factors
  • Juventus' stuttering offense: According to advanced stats, Juventus' recent goal production of 1.2 goals per match lags behind their season average of 1.8
  • AC Milan's offensive upswing: The Milanese are currently scoring more frequently (1.8) compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Historically low-scoring matches: Four of the last five head-to-head games ended in draws, with three of those finishing completely goalless at 0-0
Overview

Juventus (5th place, 6 points) host AC Milan (4th place, 6 points) at the Juventus Stadium

Serie A match on September 6, 2026, 8:45 PM

A direct clash between two unbeaten teams near the top of the table

Form

Juventus has a form of WLDWW with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

AC Milan enters with a form of LWLWW, recording 3 wins and 2 losses

Both teams won their last two matches

Statistics

Juventus scored an average of 1.61 goals and conceded 0.89 goals per game this season

At home, the Bianconeri average 1.59 scored and 0.73 conceded goals

AC Milan scored an average of 1.39 goals and conceded 0.92 goals

Away from home, the Milanese average 1.4 goals scored and only 0.7 goals conceded per game

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventus won 1, AC Milan won 0, with 4 draws

Juventus scored 2 goals while AC Milan did not score

The last meeting on April 26, 2026 ended in a 0-0 draw

Key Players

Manuel Locatelli impresses in midfield with a rating of 7.4 and two assists

Francisco Conceição contributed three goals and five assists with a rating of 7.09

Pierre Kalulu stabilizes the defense with a rating of 7.0

Adrien Rabiot leads the midfield with six goals and a rating of 7.25

Luka Modrić shines with two goals, three assists, and a rating of 7.33

Strahinja Pavlović has already scored five season goals with a rating of 6.96

Goalkeepers

Guglielmo Vicario is in goal for Juventus, which has kept 16 clean sheets this season

Mike Maignan appeared in 37 games this season for AC Milan, contributing to their 15 clean sheets

Influences

At the Juventus Stadium, there was an average of 2.0 goals per game in recent matches

Both teams scored in only one out of five matches, while none of those games went over 2.5 goals

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