Match report →
Bologna – Sassuolo2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Bologna
1.46
Total xG
2.43
Sassuolo
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bologna | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| Santiago Castro not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Juan Miranda on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Remo Freuler not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| 29% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical advantage: The model calculates a home win probability of 47% for Bologna
- Sassuolo averaged a strong 5.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Historical strength: Bologna remained unbeaten in the last 2 head-to-head matches against Sassuolo
Risks
- Bologna will play without Santiago Castro, Juan Miranda, and Remo Freuler due to squad absences
- Bologna failed to score any goals in their first two matches of the season
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions for this fixture
All probabilities
Result
Bologna47%
Draw30%
Sassuolo23%
Double chance
Bologna or draw77%
Sassuolo or draw53%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
2:2
Final score
Lineups
Bologna 4-2-3-1 · Sassuolo 4-3-3
Bologna
- 1 Ł. Skorupski
- 2 E. Holm
- 14 T. Heggem
- 3 A. Theate
- 23 A. Alhassane Bonkan
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 4 T. Pobega
- 10 F. Bernardeschi
- 21 J. Odgaard
- 28 N. Cambiaghi
- 91 R. Piccoli
Sassuolo
- 49 A. Murić
- 46 S. Cinquegrano
- 21 J. Idzes
- 16 F. Leysen
- 3 J. Doig
- 17 V. Adžić
- 18 N. Matić
- 35 L. Lipani
- 7 C. Volpato
- 9 K. Bowie
- 45 A. Lauriente
Substitutes
- 11 S. Mbangula
- 5 E. Fauske Helland
- 41 M. Vitík
- 29 L. De Silvestri
- 25 M. Pessina
- 20 N. Zortea
- 6 N. Moro
- 33 J. Miranda González
- 9 A. Dovbyk
- 72 U. Happonen
- 22 J. Enem
- 8 M. Amondarain
- 18 M. Libra Alvarado
- 15 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 33 Rafael Burguera
- 55 I. Sulemana
- 25 B. Domínguez
- 20 I. Brempt
- 80 S. Turati
- 10 D. Berardi
- 12 G. Satalino
- 19 L. Skjellerup
- 42 K. Thorstvedt
- 26 C. Odenthal
- 77 N. Pierini
- 94 S. Esposito
- 8 A. Ghion
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