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Serie A

Inter - Napoli

09/05/2026, 04:00 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Inter
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Napoli
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
INTNAP

Inter

Attack strength (2.02x league average)
+0.38
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.02
Federico Dimarco not in squad (7 goals, 17 assists)
Lautaro MartĂ­nez not in squad (17 goals, 6 assists)
Nicolò Barella not in squad (3 goals, 8 assists)
Pio Esposito not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Piotr Zieliński not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Alessandro Bastoni not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Yann Bisseck not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Petar Sučić not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Manuel Akanji not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

Napoli

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.25
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Rasmus Højlund not in squad (12 goals, 5 assists)
Scott McTominay not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists)
Matteo Politano  not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists)
Alisson Santos not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
Amir Rrahmani  not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Giovanni Di Lorenzo  not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Stanislav Lobotka not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 1% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Inter: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    Inter: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

30%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Only 0% of goal threat available for Inter with key players like Federico Dimarco and Lautaro MartĂ­nez missing
  • Only 2% of goal threat available for Napoli with key players like Rasmus Højlund and Scott McTominay missing
  • Inter averaged 65% possession and 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
  • Inter failed to win any of the last 4 direct duels against Napoli
  • Napoli averaged only 4.4 shots on target per match recently
Overview

Inter host Napoli at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Serie A match on September 5, 2026, 6:00 PM

Inter currently sit in 3rd place with 6 points

Napoli are in 10th place with 3 points

The home team enters as favorites with a predicted win probability of 49%

Form

Inter show a stable form with the record WDDWW

They recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in all competitions

Napoli have a record of LWWWL

The visitors registered 3 wins and 2 losses

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Inter average 2.34 goals scored and 0.92 goals conceded per game this season

Napoli score an average of 1.53 goals and concede 0.95 goals

In home games, Inter score an average of 2.38 goals and concede only 0.76 goals

On the road, Napoli concede an average of 1.12 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There has been no home win for Inter in the last 4 head-to-head matches

Napoli won 1 time with 3 draws

The goal difference stands at 5:7 from Inter's perspective

The last direct duel ended in a 2:2 draw on January 11, 2026

Key Players

Federico Dimarco averages a rating of 7.55 at the Giuseppe Meazza with 5 goals and 9 assists

Lautaro MartĂ­nez stands at 11 goals and 4 assists at the venue with a rating of 7.23

Nicolò Barella has 3 goals and an average rating of 7.10 at the Giuseppe Meazza

Goalkeepers

Josep MartĂ­nez is in goal for Inter and has an average season rating of 6.83

Alex Meret guards the goal for Napoli and has an average season rating of 6.73

Inter recorded 18 clean sheets this season

Napoli kept 15 clean sheets in the current campaign

Influences

The match is played on grass

The stadium statistics at the Giuseppe Meazza show an average of 3.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches at this venue

Inter benefit from a strong home record with 50 goals scored in 21 home games

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