Match report →
Inter – Napoli3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Inter
1.46
Total xG
2.35
Napoli
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.02x league average) | +0.38 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.25 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Federico Dimarco not in squad (7 goals, 17 assists) | ||
| Lautaro Martínez not in squad (17 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Nicolò Barella not in squad (3 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Pio Esposito not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Piotr Zieliński not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Alessandro Bastoni not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Yann Bisseck not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Petar Sučić not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Manuel Akanji not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) | ||
| Rasmus Højlund not in squad (12 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Scott McTominay not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Matteo Politano not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Alisson Santos not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Amir Rrahmani not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Stanislav Lobotka not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 1% available) |
Key factors
- Only 0% of goal threat available for Inter with key players like Federico Dimarco and Lautaro Martínez missing
- Only 2% of goal threat available for Napoli with key players like Rasmus Højlund and Scott McTominay missing
- Inter averaged 65% possession and 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
- Inter failed to win any of the last 4 direct duels against Napoli
- Napoli averaged only 4.4 shots on target per match recently
All probabilities
Result
Inter49%
Draw30%
Napoli21%
Double chance
Inter or draw79%
Napoli or draw51%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Inter: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Inter 3-5-2 · Napoli 4-3-3
Inter
- 1 J. Martínez Riera
- 31 Y. Bisseck
- 25 M. Akanji
- 95 A. Bastoni
- 17 A. Diouf
- 23 N. Barella
- 7 P. Zieliński
- 8 P. Sučić
- 32 F. Dimarco
- 94 F. Esposito
- 10 L. Martínez
Napoli
- 1 A. Meret
- 22 G. Di Lorenzo
- 13 A. Rrahmani
- 16 R. Marín Zamora
- 37 L. Spinazzola
- 99 A. Zambo Anguissa
- 68 S. Lobotka
- 26 A. Vergara
- 21 M. Politano
- 19 R. Højlund
- 27 A. de Almeida Santos
Substitutes
- 28 B. Pavard
- 21 C. Jones
- 6 J. Stones
- 5 A. Stankovic
- 14 A. Bonny
- 11 L. Tomaz de Lima
- 22 H. Mkhitaryan
- 12 R. Di Gennaro
- 9 M. Thuram
- 30 C. Zopalato Neves
- 20 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 49 I. Provedel
- 5 B. Badiashile Mukinayi
- 32 V. Milinković Savić
- 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
- 31 S. Beukema
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 70 N. Lang
- 20 L. Lucca
- 7 D. Neres Campos
- 17 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 11 K. De Bruyne
- 2 C. Favasuli
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