Match report →
Roma – Atalanta2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Roma
1.48
Total xG
2.28
Atalanta
0.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Roma | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.39 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.39 | |
| Attack strength (1.41x league average) | +0.34 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.34 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Matías Soulé not in squad (6 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Zeki Çelik not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Mario Pašalić not in squad (3 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Nicola Zalewski not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Giacomo Raspadori not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 81% available) |
Key factors
- Outstanding home defensive record for Roma with only 10 goals conceded in 21 home matches
- Roma recently dominated matches with an average of 61.6% possession and 7.4 shots on target
- The mathematical model forecasts Roma as favorites with a 52% win probability
Risks
- Atalanta's historical dominance with 3 wins in the last 4 head-to-head matches
- Absence of the injured L. Pellegrini who contributed 4 goals and 2 assists this season
- Atalanta arrive in strong form with 3 consecutive wins in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Roma52%
Draw30%
Atalanta19%
Double chance
Roma or draw81%
Atalanta or draw48%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
14%
0:0
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Roma: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Roma: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Atalanta: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Roma with Manu Koné starting: 2.3 goals/game, without him: 1.5 (18/10 games, last 30)
Lineups
Roma 3-4-1-2 · Atalanta 4-3-3
Roma
- 99 M. Svilar
- 23 G. Mancini
- 5 O. N'Dicka
- 22 M. Hermoso Canseco
- 77 E. Lulli
- 4 B. Cristante
- 17 K. Kone
- 43 W. França Lima
- 86 R. Mora Carvalho
- 21 P. Exequiel Dybala
- 14 D. Malen
Atalanta
- 29 M. Carnesecchi
- 16 R. Bellanova
- 3 K. Odilon
- 42 G. Scalvini
- 23 S. Kolašinac
- 10 L. Samardžić
- 70 G. Gaetano
- 13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
- 9 G. Scamacca
- 99 E. Elmas
Substitutes
- 3 K. Koulierakis
- 20 N. Molina Lucero
- 26 L. Balerdi Rossa
- 15 M. de Roon
- 9 S. Castro
- 87 D. Ghilardi
- 18 M. Malvano
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 2 D. Rensch
- 95 P. Gollini
- 70 G. De Marzi
- 68 A. Arena
- 18 G. Raspadori
- 47 L. Bernasconi
- 59 N. Zalewski
- 57 M. Sportiello
- 90 N. Krstović
- 8 M. Pašalić
- 77 D. Zappacosta
- 11 J. Rowe
- 40 R. Obrić
- 31 T. Kristensen
- 19 F. Kessié
- 22 T. Pompei
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