🇮🇹

Serie A

Roma - Atalanta

09/05/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Roma
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Atalanta
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ROMATA

Roma

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.39
Rising form (3 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.39
Attack strength (1.41x league average)
+0.34
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.34
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Matías Soulé not in squad (6 goals, 5 assists)
Zeki Çelik not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

Atalanta

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Mario Pašalić not in squad (3 goals, 5 assists)
Nicola Zalewski not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Giacomo Raspadori not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Roma: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)

  • 2
    Roma: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Atalanta: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Roma with Manu Koné starting: 2.3 goals/game, without him: 1.5 (18/10 games, last 30)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

30%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Outstanding home defensive record for Roma with only 10 goals conceded in 21 home matches
  • Roma recently dominated matches with an average of 61.6% possession and 7.4 shots on target
  • The mathematical model forecasts Roma as favorites with a 52% win probability
Risk Factors
  • Atalanta's historical dominance with 3 wins in the last 4 head-to-head matches
  • Absence of the injured L. Pellegrini who contributed 4 goals and 2 assists this season
  • Atalanta arrive in strong form with 3 consecutive wins in recent matches
Overview

Roma host Atalanta at the Stadio Olimpico

Serie A fixture on September 5, 2026, 8:45 PM

Both teams enjoy a perfect start to the season with 6 points each

Form

Roma boast a perfect form curve of WWWWW

Atalanta are also unbeaten with a record of DDWWW

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Roma concede an average of only 0.82 goals per game

At home Roma concede just 0.48 goals per match

Atalanta score an average of 1.34 goals

Head-to-Head

Atalanta dominate the recent record with 3 wins from the last 4 matches

Roma are without a win against the visitors in this period

Their last match ended 1:1

Key Players

Donyell Malen is Roma's top scorer with 14 goals this season

Paulo Dybala has provided 7 assists as the key playmaker

Charles De Ketelaere scored 3 goals in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Mile Svilar kept 18 clean sheets this season for Roma

Marco Carnesecchi achieved 13 clean sheets for Atalanta

Both keepers provide elite stability

Influences

Roma rely on strong home defense with only 10 goals conceded in 21 games

Stadio Olimpico matches average 2.4 goals

The game will be played on grass

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.