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Serie A

Torino - Roma

09/14/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Torino
0.9
Total xG
2.7
Roma
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

0:2

11%

1:2

10%

0:3

6%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
TORROM

Torino

Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 3, 9 places gap)
-0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08

Roma

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.62
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.28
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.28
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 12, 9 places gap)
+0.07
Manu Koné not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Wesley on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Evan Ndicka on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.42
+0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Roma: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)

  • 2
    Roma: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Torino: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 4
    Torino: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

18%

Draw

26%

Away Win

56%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

44%

Away or Draw

82%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Strong offensive tactics: Roma recently averaged 7.2 shots on target per match compared to Torino's 2.4
  • Form gap: Roma is currently scoring 2.6 goals per game, far above their season average of 1.7, while Torino's goal production has stalled at 1.0
  • Squad rotation: Roma has not nominated Manu Koné, Wesley, and Evan Ndicka for this match
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Roma enters the match with a short rest period of only 4 days since their last game
  • Lack of penetration: Torino's attack has recently averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match
Overview

Torino hosts Roma at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Serie A match on September 14, 2026, 6:30 PM

Roma currently holds 2nd place with 9 points from 3 matches

Torino is in 14th place with 3 points

The away side enters as clear favorites

Form

Torino's form stands at WLLLW with 2 wins and 3 losses

Roma's recent form is strong at WWWWD, including 4 wins and 1 draw

Torino's recent goal production has stalled, averaging 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.3

Roma is in excellent form, averaging 2.6 goals recently, which is higher than their season average of 1.7

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Torino averaged 1.16 goals scored and 1.66 goals conceded per match this season

Roma averaged 1.55 goals scored and conceded just 0.82 goals per match this season

Torino recorded 12 clean sheets with 19 matches seeing both teams score

Roma kept 18 clean sheets while 13 of their matches ended with both teams scoring

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams

Roma leads the historical record with 3 wins compared to Torino's 2 wins

The goal difference in these meetings is 4 to 7 goals against Torino

The last head-to-head match ended in a 2-0 victory for Roma

Key Players

Giovanni Simeone leads Torino with 11 season goals and a rating of 6.85

Nikola Vlašić contributed 8 goals and 3 assists this season with a rating of 7.00

Ché Adams recorded 6 goals and 2 assists so far with a rating of 6.85

Donyell Malen is Roma's top attacker with 14 season goals and a rating of 7.12

Paulo Dybala has registered 2 goals and 7 assists this season with a strong rating of 7.23

Matías Soulé has contributed 6 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 7.01

Goalkeepers

Lucas Perri starts in goal for Torino, boasting an average rating of 7.26 in home games

Mile Svilar protects Roma's goal, keeping 18 clean sheets this season with an average rating of 7.01

Influences

Torino averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.26 conceded in home games at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

The stadium historically averages 2.4 goals per match

Roma scores an average of 1.53 goals and concedes 1.24 goals away on grass surfaces

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