Match report →
Torino – Roma0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Torino
0.91
Total xG
2.66
Roma
1.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Torino | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.62 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.28 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 3, 9 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 12, 9 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Manu Koné not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Wesley on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Evan Ndicka on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Strong offensive tactics: Roma recently averaged 7.2 shots on target per match compared to Torino's 2.4
- Form gap: Roma is currently scoring 2.6 goals per game, far above their season average of 1.7, while Torino's goal production has stalled at 1.0
- Squad rotation: Roma has not nominated Manu Koné, Wesley, and Evan Ndicka for this match
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Roma enters the match with a short rest period of only 4 days since their last game
- Lack of penetration: Torino's attack has recently averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match
All probabilities
Result
Torino18%
Draw26%
Roma56%
Double chance
Torino or draw44%
Roma or draw82%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
0:2
11%
1:2
10%
0:3
6%
1:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Roma: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
- Roma: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Torino: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Torino: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
Lineups
Torino 5-3-2 · Roma 3-4-2-1
Torino
- 20 L. Estella Perri
- 45 R. Belghali
- 5 E. Cömert
- 23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
- 15 P. Comuzzo
- 29 N. Fortini
- 66 G. Gineitis
- 8 R. Mandragora
- 28 K. Fitz-Jim
- 18 G. Simeone
- 10 N. Vlašić
Roma
- 99 M. Svilar
- 23 G. Mancini
- 26 L. Balerdi Rossa
- 22 M. Hermoso Canseco
- 77 E. Lulli
- 4 B. Cristante
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 20 N. Molina Lucero
- 21 P. Exequiel Dybala
- 18 M. Malvano
- 14 D. Malen
Substitutes
- 13 R. Rodríguez Araya
- 2 N. Patterson
- 21 D. Santos Bragança
- 17 S. Kulenovic
- 44 A. Ismajli
- 91 D. Zapata Banguera
- 7 Z. Aboukhlal
- 6 E. İlkhan
- 3 C. Biraghi
- 11 G. Oristanio
- 26 D. Mascardi
- 77 A. Cacciamani
- 76 L. Siviero
- 3 K. Koulierakis
- 15 M. de Roon
- 86 R. Mora Carvalho
- 9 S. Castro
- 7 L. Pellegrini
- 87 D. Ghilardi
- 43 W. França Lima
- 2 D. Rensch
- 95 P. Gollini
- 17 K. Kone
- 70 G. De Marzi
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