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Lazio – AC Milan2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Lazio
1.05
Total xG
2.06
AC Milan
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lazio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.70 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.35 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.31 | +0.31 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Boulaye Dia not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Adam Marusic not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Davide Bartesaghi on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Balanced outlook: The mathematical prediction shows a 34% probability for a home win compared to 32% for an away win
- Defensive resilience: Both teams have kept 15 clean sheets this season, indicating highly stable defensive lines
- Squad limitations for Lazio: Important team members Boulaye Dia and Adam Marusic are missing from the current selection
Risks
- Offensive flow: Lazio recently averaged 4.6 shots on target per match, while AC Milan averaged 3.8 in recent games
- Lazio midfield weakness: The absence of N. Rovella due to a calf injury limits creative options in central midfield
- Low scoring expectations: Predictions indicate a low-scoring game with the Over 2.5 line valued at only 34%
All probabilities
Result
Lazio34%
Draw34%
AC Milan32%
Double chance
Lazio or draw68%
AC Milan or draw66%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
12%
0:1
11%
2:1
7%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lazio: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Lazio: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Udinese: 2 goals (80', 90+5')
- AC Milan: 79% of all goals in the second half (11 of 14, last 12 games)
- Lazio: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Lazio: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
Lineups
Lazio 4-3-3 · AC Milan 3-4-2-1
Lazio
- 35 C. Mandas
- 15 R. Floriani
- 37 J. Šutalo
- 25 O. Nielsen
- 17 N. Varela Tavares
- 16 D. Frattesi
- 21 R. Belahyane
- 24 K. Taylor
- 22 M. Cancellieri
- 14 T. Noslin
- 10 M. Zaccagni
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 34 M. Fuentes
- 5 K. De Winter
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 21 S. Chukwueze
- 14 L. Modrić
- 12 A. Rabiot
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 8 R. Loftus-Cheek
- 70 A. Cisse
- 9 G. Ramos
Substitutes
- 2 D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
- 23 A. Pedraza Sag
- 80 A. Gudmundsson
- 32 D. Cataldi
- 29 M. Lazzari
- 11 G. Isaksen
- 9 A. Pinamonti
- 40 E. Motta
- 71 V. Farcomeni
- 63 F. Serra
- 28 A. Przyborek
- 47 D. Renzetti
- 33 R. Bordon
- 22 D. da Silva Moreira
- 20 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
- 80 Y. Musah
- 30 A. Jasari
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 11 C. Pulisic
- 1 P. Terracciano
- 23 F. Tomori
- 56 A. Saelemaekers
- 46 M. Gabbia
- 96 L. Torriani
- 73 F. Camarda
- 42 F. Terracciano
- 13 S. Bocoum
- 28 C. Comotto
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