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Serie A

Lazio - AC Milan

09/12/2026, 04:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Lazio
1.1
Total xG
2.1
AC Milan
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

12%

0:1

11%

2:1

7%
What influences the xG?
LAZAM

Lazio

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.35
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.00
Boulaye Dia not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Adam Marusic not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

AC Milan

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.70
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Davide Bartesaghi on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.31
+0.31
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lazio: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Lazio: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Udinese: 2 goals (80', 90+5')

  • 3
    AC Milan: 79% of all goals in the second half (11 of 14, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Lazio: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Lazio: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

34%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Balanced outlook: The mathematical prediction shows a 34% probability for a home win compared to 32% for an away win
  • Defensive resilience: Both teams have kept 15 clean sheets this season, indicating highly stable defensive lines
  • Squad limitations for Lazio: Important team members Boulaye Dia and Adam Marusic are missing from the current selection
Risk Factors
  • Offensive flow: Lazio recently averaged 4.6 shots on target per match, while AC Milan averaged 3.8 in recent games
  • Lazio midfield weakness: The absence of N. Rovella due to a calf injury limits creative options in central midfield
  • Low scoring expectations: Predictions indicate a low-scoring game with the Over 2.5 line valued at only 34%
Overview

Lazio host AC Milan at the Stadio Olimpico

Serie A match on September 12, 2026, 4:00 PM

Lazio currently sit in 3rd place with 9 points from 3 games

AC Milan are in 5th place with 7 points

A direct clash in the upper tier of the table

Form

Lazio form across all competitions: WLWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home team recorded 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games

AC Milan form across all competitions: WLWWD

The visitors secured 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Lazio enter the match on a 3-game winning streak, while Milan recently drew

Statistics

Lazio scored an average of 1.08 goals per game this season and conceded 1.05

AC Milan averaged 1.39 goals scored and 0.92 goals conceded

Lazio kept 15 clean sheets throughout the season

AC Milan also recorded 15 clean sheets

On the road Milan concede an average of only 0.7 goals per game

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in historical records

Lazio celebrated 3 wins, AC Milan won 1 time with 1 draw

The goal difference stands at 6:4 in favor of Lazio

The last encounter on March 15, 2026 ended in a 1:0 win for Lazio

Key Players

Mattia Zaccagni shows rising form with an average rating of 7.21 at home

Matteo Cancellieri contributed 4 goals this season

Luka Modrić leads Milan's midfield with an average season rating of 7.33

Adrien Rabiot scored 6 goals and provided 4 assists for the visitors this season

Not nominated for Lazio are Boulaye Dia and Adam Marusic

Goalkeepers

Christos Mandas reached an average rating of 7.16 in his last 4 appearances for Lazio

Mike Maignan starts in goal for AC Milan with an average season rating of 7.07

Both teams secured 15 clean sheets each this season

Influences

Home advantage at the Stadio Olimpico on grass surface

Venue statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per game with a BTTS rate of 40%

Lazio scored an average of 1.08 goals and conceded 1.00 at home

AC Milan scored an average of 1.4 goals per game away from home

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