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Sassuolo – Juventus3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sassuolo
1.25
Total xG
2.38
Juventus
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sassuolo | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.38 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Cristian Volpato not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weston McKennie not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Manuel Locatelli not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lloyd Kelly on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 63% of goal output missing (only 43% available) |
Key factors
- Extreme squad impact for visitors: Only 44% of goal threat available, without Weston McKennie, Manuel Locatelli, Lloyd Kelly
- Sassuolo averaged 6.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
- The mathematical analysis predicts a Home or Draw with a 69% probability
Risks
- Juventus' goal production is stalling recently with 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.8
- Sassuolo shows defensive vulnerability with an average of 1.32 goals conceded per game this season
All probabilities
Result
Sassuolo38%
Draw31%
Juventus31%
Double chance
Sassuolo or draw69%
Juventus or draw62%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juventus: 5 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
- Juventus: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Sassuolo with Domenico Berardi starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (13/11 games, last 29)
Lineups
Sassuolo 4-2-3-1 · Juventus 4-2-3-1
Sassuolo
- 49 A. Murić
- 46 S. Cinquegrano
- 21 J. Idzes
- 16 F. Leysen
- 3 J. Doig
- 18 N. Matić
- 35 L. Lipani
- 10 D. Berardi
- 42 K. Thorstvedt
- 45 A. Lauriente
- 94 S. Esposito
Juventus
- 25 G. Vicario
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 2 M. Çelik
- 12 D. Soares de Paulo
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 7 F. Conceição
- 31 N. González
- 17 K. Alajbegović
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
Substitutes
- 15 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 50 D. Bakola
- 33 Rafael Burguera
- 17 V. Adžić
- 55 I. Sulemana
- 25 B. Domínguez
- 9 K. Bowie
- 20 I. Brempt
- 80 S. Turati
- 19 L. Skjellerup
- 26 C. Odenthal
- 77 N. Pierini
- 8 A. Ghion
- 22 L. Nyarko
- 1 K. Grabara
- 27 N. Woltemade
- 29 P. Sarr
- 4 F. Gatti
- 11 E. Zhegrova
- 24 D. Rugani
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 6 L. Kelly
- 43 F. Pagnucco
- 41 S. Owusu
- 45 J. Oboavwoduo
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