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Serie A

Sassuolo - Juventus

09/13/2026, 06:45 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Sassuolo
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Juventus
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SASJUV

Sassuolo

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.15
Attack strength (1.23x league average)
-0.12
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.01
Cristian Volpato not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)

Juventus

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.38
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.17
Weston McKennie not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists)
Manuel Locatelli not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Lloyd Kelly on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
63% of goal output missing (only 43% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.36
+0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juventus: 5 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

  • 2
    Juventus: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 3
    Sassuolo with Domenico Berardi starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (13/11 games, last 29)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

31%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Extreme squad impact for visitors: Only 44% of goal threat available, without Weston McKennie, Manuel Locatelli, Lloyd Kelly
  • Sassuolo averaged 6.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a Home or Draw with a 69% probability
Risk Factors
  • Juventus' goal production is stalling recently with 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.8
  • Sassuolo shows defensive vulnerability with an average of 1.32 goals conceded per game this season
Overview

Sassuolo host Juventus at the MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Serie A match on September 13, 2026, 8:45 PM

Sassuolo currently occupy 11th place with 4 points

Juventus sit in 8th place with 7 points

A mid-table clash in the early stage of the season

Form

Sassuolo's form is WLWDD with 2 wins and 2 draws

Most recently, they played out a 2-2 draw against Bologna

Juventus show a form of LDWWD with 2 wins and 2 draws

Their last game ended in a 1-1 draw against AC Milan

Sassuolo's recent trend is positive, while Juventus' goal production is stalling

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sassuolo scored an average of 1.21 goals per game and conceded 1.32

Their home record shows an average of 1.19 goals scored and 1.24 conceded

Juventus scored an average of 1.61 goals per game and conceded just 0.89

Away from home, Juventus concede an average of 1.12 goals while scoring 1.62

Sassuolo's season saw 20 matches where both teams scored

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches in the database

Juventus secured 1 win, and the other game ended in a draw

The last meeting on March 21, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

The goal difference in these direct encounters is 1-4 against Sassuolo

Key Players

Domenico Berardi scored 8 goals and made 4 assists in 26 games with a 7.13 rating

Armand Laurienté recorded 7 goals and 9 assists in 38 games with a 7.04 rating

Josh Doig contributed 1 goal in 30 games with an average rating of 6.58

Francisco Conceição scored 3 goals and made 5 assists in 31 games with a 7.09 rating

Bremer achieved 4 goals and 3 assists in 26 games with a 7.05 rating

Pierre Kalulu scored 2 goals and made 4 assists in 37 games with a 7.00 rating

Goalkeepers

Arijanet Murić guards the goal for Sassuolo and recorded 8 clean sheets this season

On the other side stands Guglielmo Vicario with 16 clean sheets for Juventus

Influences

The match is played on grass at the MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

The venue statistics show an average of 3.0 goals per game

Sassuolo conceded an average of 1.24 goals at home

Juventus conceded an average of 1.12 goals away from home

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