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Napoli – Bologna1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Napoli
1.30
Total xG
2.28
Bologna
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Napoli | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.67 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Scott McTominay not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Frank Anguissa not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Alisson Santos not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Jens Odgaard on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 87% available) |
Key factors
- Absences for Napoli: Scott McTominay (10 goals, 3 assists) and Frank Anguissa (4 goals, 1 assist) are missing from the starting lineup
- Tactical averages: Napoli recently averaged 4.4 shots on target per match compared to Bologna's 4.2
- Model favorites: Mathematical analysis calculates a 42% home win probability for Napoli
Risks
- Negative form trend: Both teams showed a negative trend recently with a stalling goal production of 1.2 goals on average
- H2H history: Bologna won the last meeting in Naples 3-2 and is considered the dominant team in recent encounters
All probabilities
Result
Napoli42%
Draw31%
Bologna26%
Double chance
Napoli or draw74%
Bologna or draw58%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
12%
2:0
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bologna: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Bologna: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)
Lineups
Napoli 4-2-3-1 · Bologna 4-2-3-1
Napoli
- 32 V. Milinković Savić
- 22 G. Di Lorenzo
- 13 A. Rrahmani
- 16 R. Marín Zamora
- 37 L. Spinazzola
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 68 S. Lobotka
- 21 M. Politano
- 11 K. De Bruyne
- 26 A. Vergara
- 19 R. Højlund
Bologna
- 25 M. Pessina
- 2 E. Holm
- 14 T. Heggem
- 3 A. Theate
- 33 J. Miranda González
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 4 T. Pobega
- 10 F. Bernardeschi
- 8 M. Amondarain
- 28 N. Cambiaghi
- 91 R. Piccoli
Substitutes
- 5 B. Badiashile Mukinayi
- 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
- 31 S. Beukema
- 70 N. Lang
- 20 L. Lucca
- 7 D. Neres Campos
- 17 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 2 C. Favasuli
- 12 C. Pugliese
- 11 S. Mbangula
- 23 A. Alhassane Bonkan
- 5 E. Fauske Helland
- 41 M. Vitík
- 29 L. De Silvestri
- 1 Ł. Skorupski
- 6 N. Moro
- 21 J. Odgaard
- 16 N. Casale
- 82 M. Franceschelli
- 22 J. Enem
- 18 M. Libra Alvarado
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