Serie A
Napoli - Bologna
09/13/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.3
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
12%2:0
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Napoli
Bologna
League
The Lab
- 1Bologna: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- 2Bologna: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
31%
Away Win
26%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
74%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Absences for Napoli: Scott McTominay (10 goals, 3 assists) and Frank Anguissa (4 goals, 1 assist) are missing from the starting lineup
- Tactical averages: Napoli recently averaged 4.4 shots on target per match compared to Bologna's 4.2
- Model favorites: Mathematical analysis calculates a 42% home win probability for Napoli
Risk Factors
- Negative form trend: Both teams showed a negative trend recently with a stalling goal production of 1.2 goals on average
- H2H history: Bologna won the last meeting in Naples 3-2 and is considered the dominant team in recent encounters
Overview
Napoli host Bologna at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Serie A match on September 13, 2026, 6:00 PM
A clash between two struggling sides in the lower half of the table
Napoli currently sit in 12th place with 3 points
Bologna occupy 16th place with just 1 point
Form
Napoli form: WWLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Bologna form: WDLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Napoli suffered 3 consecutive defeats in their last games
Bologna are still searching for their first win of the season after a draw in their last match
Statistics
Napoli scored an average of 1.53 goals and conceded 0.95 goals per game this season
In home games, Napoli averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.82 goals conceded
Bologna scored an average of 1.29 goals per game and conceded 1.21 goals this season
In away matches, Bologna conceded an average of exactly 1 goal per game
Head-to-Head
4 head-to-head matches in recent years
Bologna achieved 2 wins, while Napoli secured 1 win and 1 match ended in a draw
Bologna won the last meeting 3-2 away at Napoli on May 11, 2026
The goals ratio in direct duels is balanced at 6-6
Key Players
Rasmus Højlund scored 12 goals and provided 5 assists in 33 season appearances
Matteo Politano has 2 goals and 5 assists to his name this campaign
Kevin De Bruyne contributed 5 goals and 2 assists in 18 matches this season
Federico Bernardeschi scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists in 29 season appearances
Nicolò Cambiaghi recorded 3 goals and prepared 4 further goals this season
Lewis Ferguson recently impressed with an average rating of 7.44 in the past matches
Goalkeepers
Vanja Milinković-Savić starts in goal for Napoli with an average season rating of 6.83
Napoli recorded 15 clean sheets across the entire season
Massimo Pessina guards Bologna's goal with an average season rating of 6.79
Bologna kept a total of 12 clean sheets in this campaign
Influences
Matches at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona recently averaged 2.8 goals per game
In 60% of the last games at this venue, more than 2.5 goals were scored
The match is played on natural grass