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Serie A

Napoli - Bologna

09/13/2026, 04:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Napoli
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Bologna
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
NAPBOL

Napoli

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.10
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Scott McTominay not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists)
Frank Anguissa  not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Alisson Santos not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 93% available)

Bologna

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.67
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Jens Odgaard on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Bologna: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 2
    Bologna: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

31%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Absences for Napoli: Scott McTominay (10 goals, 3 assists) and Frank Anguissa (4 goals, 1 assist) are missing from the starting lineup
  • Tactical averages: Napoli recently averaged 4.4 shots on target per match compared to Bologna's 4.2
  • Model favorites: Mathematical analysis calculates a 42% home win probability for Napoli
Risk Factors
  • Negative form trend: Both teams showed a negative trend recently with a stalling goal production of 1.2 goals on average
  • H2H history: Bologna won the last meeting in Naples 3-2 and is considered the dominant team in recent encounters
Overview

Napoli host Bologna at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Serie A match on September 13, 2026, 6:00 PM

A clash between two struggling sides in the lower half of the table

Napoli currently sit in 12th place with 3 points

Bologna occupy 16th place with just 1 point

Form

Napoli form: WWLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Bologna form: WDLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Napoli suffered 3 consecutive defeats in their last games

Bologna are still searching for their first win of the season after a draw in their last match

Statistics

Napoli scored an average of 1.53 goals and conceded 0.95 goals per game this season

In home games, Napoli averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.82 goals conceded

Bologna scored an average of 1.29 goals per game and conceded 1.21 goals this season

In away matches, Bologna conceded an average of exactly 1 goal per game

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

Bologna achieved 2 wins, while Napoli secured 1 win and 1 match ended in a draw

Bologna won the last meeting 3-2 away at Napoli on May 11, 2026

The goals ratio in direct duels is balanced at 6-6

Key Players

Rasmus Højlund scored 12 goals and provided 5 assists in 33 season appearances

Matteo Politano has 2 goals and 5 assists to his name this campaign

Kevin De Bruyne contributed 5 goals and 2 assists in 18 matches this season

Federico Bernardeschi scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists in 29 season appearances

Nicolò Cambiaghi recorded 3 goals and prepared 4 further goals this season

Lewis Ferguson recently impressed with an average rating of 7.44 in the past matches

Goalkeepers

Vanja Milinković-Savić starts in goal for Napoli with an average season rating of 6.83

Napoli recorded 15 clean sheets across the entire season

Massimo Pessina guards Bologna's goal with an average season rating of 6.79

Bologna kept a total of 12 clean sheets in this campaign

Influences

Matches at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona recently averaged 2.8 goals per game

In 60% of the last games at this venue, more than 2.5 goals were scored

The match is played on natural grass

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