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Serie A

Inter - Udinese

09/14/2026, 06:45 PM

5 : 3
Expected Goals
Inter
2.7
Total xG
3.5
Udinese
0.9
Most Likely Scores

3:0

9%

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

4:0

6%

4:1

5%
What influences the xG?
INTUDI

Inter

Attack strength (1.82x league average)
+1.59
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.41
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap)
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Federico Dimarco not in squad (7 goals, 17 assists)
Lautaro Martínez on the bench (17 goals, 6 assists)
Hakan Çalhanoğlu on the bench (9 goals, 4 assists)
Yann Bisseck not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Petar Sučić not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 70% available)

Udinese

Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap)
-0.09
Oumar Solet not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Jakub Piotrowski not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.42
+0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Inter: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    Udinese: 39% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 18)

  • 3
    Udinese: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Inter: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (6 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

75%

Draw

16%

Away Win

9%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

91%

Away or Draw

25%

No Draw

84%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical advantage: The predictive model calculates a home win with a probability of 75%
  • Strong home record: Inter score an average of 2.38 goals per game at home and face a defense that conceded 27 goals away
  • Dominant tactical system: Inter averaged 64% ball possession and 6.4 shots on target in recent matches, showing high dominance
Risk Factors
  • Increased efficiency: Udinese are currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals on average) than their season average (1.3 goals)
  • Historical setback: Udinese managed to win 2-1 away against Inter in August 2025
Overview

Inter (3rd place, 9 points) host Udinese (13th place, 4 points) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Serie A match on September 14, 2026, 8:45 PM

Inter enter as favorites for this clash

Form

Inter show a form of DWWWL with 3 wins and 1 loss from their last 5 matches

Udinese show a form of WDWWL with also 3 wins and 1 loss

Both teams suffered a defeat in their most recent match

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Inter scored an average of 2.34 goals per game this season and conceded 0.92 goals

Udinese average 1.18 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded per game

Inter's home record stands at a strong 50 goals scored in 21 home games

Udinese conceded 27 goals in 23 away games so far

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between these teams

Inter achieved 4 wins while Udinese won 1 match

The last direct duel ended in a 1-0 victory for Inter

A total of 9-5 goals were scored in favor of Inter in these matches

Key Players

Marcus Thuram has already scored 13 goals and provided 6 assists this season

Alessandro Bastoni shines with an average season rating of 7.22 and 4 assists

Andy Diouf recently showed rising form with an average rating of 7.37 in recent games

For Udinese, Keinan Davis is a major offensive threat with 10 goals and 4 assists this season

Hassane Kamara recently impressed with 2 goals and 1 assist in recent matches

Jurgen Ekkelenkamp holds an average season rating of 6.94 with 5 goals and 3 assists

Not nominated for Inter are Federico Dimarco, Lautaro Martínez, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Yann Bisseck and Petar Sučić

Goalkeepers

Josep Martínez guards the goal for Inter with 5 season appearances so far

Maduka Okoye is in goal for Udinese having completed 30 appearances this season

Inter achieved 18 clean sheets this season while Udinese recorded 11 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on the grass surface of Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Inter show a powerful home advantage with 50 goals scored and only 16 conceded in 21 home games

The venue history indicates an average of 3.4 total goals per game with a high rate of both teams scoring

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