Match report →
Inter – Udinese5 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Inter
2.68
Total xG
3.54
Udinese
0.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.82x league average) | +1.59 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.41 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Federico Dimarco not in squad (7 goals, 17 assists) | ||
| Lautaro Martínez on the bench (17 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu on the bench (9 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Yann Bisseck not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Petar Sučić not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 70% available) | ||
| Oumar Solet not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jakub Piotrowski not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Mathematical advantage: The predictive model calculates a home win with a probability of 75%
- Strong home record: Inter score an average of 2.38 goals per game at home and face a defense that conceded 27 goals away
- Dominant tactical system: Inter averaged 64% ball possession and 6.4 shots on target in recent matches, showing high dominance
Risks
- Increased efficiency: Udinese are currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals on average) than their season average (1.3 goals)
- Historical setback: Udinese managed to win 2-1 away against Inter in August 2025
All probabilities
Result
Inter75%
Draw16%
Udinese9%
Double chance
Inter or draw91%
Udinese or draw25%
No draw84%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
3:0
9%
2:1
9%
3:1
8%
4:0
6%
4:1
5%
5:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Udinese: 39% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 18)
- Udinese: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Inter: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (6 points rescued)
Lineups
Inter 3-5-2 · Udinese 3-4-2-1
Inter
- 1 J. Martínez Riera
- 25 M. Akanji
- 6 J. Stones
- 95 A. Bastoni
- 17 A. Diouf
- 23 N. Barella
- 7 P. Zieliński
- 22 H. Mkhitaryan
- 30 C. Zopalato Neves
- 9 M. Thuram
- 94 F. Esposito
Udinese
- 40 M. Okoye
- 14 J. Abankwah
- 27 C. Kabasele
- 77 E. Ebosse
- 23 M. Vojvoda
- 8 J. Karlström
- 38 L. Miller
- 11 H. Kamara
- 46 U. Gómez Etxebarria
- 32 J. Ekkelenkamp
- 9 K. Davis
Substitutes
- 28 B. Pavard
- 21 C. Jones
- 5 A. Stankovic
- 14 A. Bonny
- 8 P. Sučić
- 11 L. Tomaz de Lima
- 10 L. Martínez
- 12 R. Di Gennaro
- 31 Y. Bisseck
- 32 F. Dimarco
- 49 I. Provedel
- 48 M. Mosconi
- 91 L. Jovanović
- 30 G. Chakvetadze
- 41 B. Mrozek
- 7 I. Gueye
- 15 V. Bayo
- 6 O. Zarraga Egaña
- 4 S. Lovric
- 93 D. Padelli
- 13 N. Bertola
- 45 G. Vinciati
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