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Como – Parma2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Como
1.97
Total xG
2.53
Parma
0.55
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Como | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.41x league average) | −1.21 | |
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +0.66 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.46 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Anastasios Douvikas on the bench (14 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Álex Valle on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Adrián Bernabé on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Offensive strength: Como is currently scoring more frequently (3.0 goals) than their season average (2.2 goals)
- Attacking struggles: Parma's goal production is stalling with a recent average of 0.6 goals compared to 0.9 on average
- Tactical dominance: Como recently controlled possession (60% possession) with an average of 6.6 shots on target
Risks
- Squad depletion for Como: The absence of Anastasios Douvikas and Álex Valle costs the home team around 18% of their goal threat
- Missing playmaker for Parma: The unselected Adrián Bernabé weakens the visitors' midfield options
All probabilities
Result
Como70%
Draw22%
Parma8%
Double chance
Como or draw92%
Parma or draw30%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes38%
No62%
Most likely scores
2:0
16%
3:0
10%
1:1
10%
2:1
9%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Como: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Parma: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
- Parma: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Como 4-2-3-1 · Parma 3-4-2-1
Como
- 97 R. Lynch Sanchez
- 27 Y. Couto
- 4 J. Naveros
- 2 M. Kempf
- 16 K. da Silva
- 5 M. Perrone
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 11 A. Diao Diaoune
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
- 20 M. Baturina
- 90 M. Kean
Parma
- 40 E. Corvi
- 34 D. Santos Silva
- 37 M. Troilo
- 15 E. Del Prato
- 27 S. Britschgi
- 4 V. Sierro
- 16 M. Keita
- 14 E. Valeri
- 19 E. Toure
- 76 S. Lontani
- 23 N. Elphege
Substitutes
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 53 W. Kambwala
- 99 T. Chalobah
- 15 A. Lahdo
- 21 S. Ricci
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 17 J. Rodríguez Caraballo
- 9 A. Douvikas
- 1 J. Butez
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 18 E. Goldaniga
- 13 A. Dossena
- 22 M. Vigorito
- 3 ?. Valle Gómez
- 30 M. Liberali
- 80 G. Fabbian
- 20 M. Frigan
- 8 B. Cremaschi
- 10 A. Bernabe Garcia
- 3 N. Ndiaye
- 32 C. Ordoñez
- 11 P. Almqvist
- 5 L. Valenti
- 29 F. Carboni
- 22 S. Ghidotti
- 30 G. Daffara
- 72 D. Drobnič
- 9 J. Romero
- 25 T. De Martis
- 47 A. Salam Konaté
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