🇼đŸ‡č

Serie A

Como - Parma

09/14/2026, 04:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Como
2.0
Total xG
2.5
Parma
0.6
Most Likely Scores

2:0

16%

3:0

10%

1:1

10%

2:1

9%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
COMPAR

Como

Attack strength (1.43x league average)
+0.66
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.46
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.26
Rising form (3 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.26
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap)
+0.09
Anastasios Douvikas  on the bench (14 goals, 1 assists)
Álex Valle on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

Parma

Attack weakness (0.41x league average)
-1.21
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap)
-0.06
Adriån Bernabé on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.42
+0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Como: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 2
    Parma: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

  • 3
    Parma: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

70%

Draw

22%

Away Win

8%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

92%

Away or Draw

30%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Offensive strength: Como is currently scoring more frequently (3.0 goals) than their season average (2.2 goals)
  • Attacking struggles: Parma's goal production is stalling with a recent average of 0.6 goals compared to 0.9 on average
  • Tactical dominance: Como recently controlled possession (60% possession) with an average of 6.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Squad depletion for Como: The absence of Anastasios Douvikas and Álex Valle costs the home team around 18% of their goal threat
  • Missing playmaker for Parma: The unselected AdriĂĄn BernabĂ© weakens the visitors' midfield options
Overview

Como (6th place, 7 points) host Parma (17th place, 1 point) at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Serie A match on September 14, 2026, 6:30 PM

Como enters the match as clear favorites

Form

Como shows excellent form with WDWWW (4 wins, 1 draw)

Most recently securing a dominant 4-1 victory against RB Leipzig

Parma is struggling with WLLLD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

The visitors recently drew 1-1 against Monza

Statistics

Como averages 1.71 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game this season

At home, Como shines with an average of 1.75 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded

Parma has a weaker record with avg. 0.74 goals scored and 1.21 conceded

Away from home, Parma concedes an average of 1.31 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Historically Como dominated with 2 wins and 2 draws in 4 head-to-head matches

The last meeting ended in a 1-0 home win for Como on May 17, 2026

Parma is still waiting for their first win against Como in this period

Key Players

Nico Paz impresses this season with 12 goals, 6 assists and a 7.53 rating

Martin Baturina contributes 6 goals, 3 assists and a 7.16 rating

Lucas Da Cunha records 6 goals, 5 assists and a 7.13 rating

Nesta Elphege stands at 2 goals this season with a 6.72 rating

Enrico Delprato contributed 2 goals with a 6.71 rating so far

Mandela Keita has 1 goal and a rating of 6.84

Goalkeepers

Robert SĂĄnchez guards the goal for the home side, which kept 19 clean sheets this season

On the other side stands Edoardo Corvi with an average rating of 6.9

The visitors' defense managed 13 clean sheets so far this term

Influences

At the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, matches average a high-scoring 3.6 goals per game

The over 2.5 rate stands at 60% in historical fixtures at this venue

Both teams scored in 40% of the matches on this grass pitch

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