Match report →
Genoa – Frosinone1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Genoa
1.24
Total xG
2.38
Frosinone
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Genoa | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.32 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.03 | |
| Vitinha on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 85% available) |
Key factors
- Form gap: Genoa started with 3 consecutive losses (19th place) while Frosinone sit in 7th place with 6 points
- Frosinone's offensive strength: The visitors averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches and are currently scoring more (2.2) than their season average (1.9)
- Genoa's attacking struggles: The home side averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches and their goal production stalls at 1.0 compared to their season average of 1.3
Risks
- Weakened squad: Genoa must play without Vitinha (5 goals, 1 assist) and Brooke Norton-Cuffy (2 goals, 1 assist)
- Low attacking threat: Genoa averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited data availability regarding historical head-to-head matches and current player stats for Frosinone
All probabilities
Result
Genoa37%
Draw31%
Frosinone32%
Double chance
Genoa or draw68%
Frosinone or draw63%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Genoa: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Frosinone: 69% of all goals in the first half (9 of 13, last 7 games)
- Frosinone: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 13)
Lineups
Genoa 3-5-2 · Frosinone 4-2-3-1
Genoa
- 1 J. Bijlow
- 27 A. Marcandalli
- 5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
- 3 K. Ehizibue
- 32 M. Frendrup
- 8 T. Baldanzi
- 97 D. Sow
- 77 M. Ellertsson
- 29 L. Colombo
- 18 M. Osmajić
Frosinone
- 22 L. Palmisani
- 20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
- 3 G. Calvani
- 2 G. Cittadini
- 79 G. Bracaglia
- 14 G. Calò
- 73 P. Masini
- 7 F. Ghedjemis
- 10 R. Schmid
- 17 G. Kvernadze
- 9 A. Raimondo
Substitutes
- 11 F. Meichtry
- 25 H. Traorè
- 16 C. Drameh
- 92 S. El Shaarawy
- 39 D. Sommariva
- 10 J. Messias
- 20 S. Sabelli
- 9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
- 34 S. Otoa
- 4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
- 99 F. Stolz
- 71 S. Wiafe
- 2 M. Mitaj
- 31 D. Puczka
- 25 K. Akpoguma
- 11 D. Birligea
- 71 A. Terzić
- 40 S. Fini
- 70 L. Hasa
- 24 A. Zerbin
- 91 S. Desplanches
- 12 M. Pisseri
- 16 M. Cichella
- 30 I. Monterisi
- 74 O. Fayed
- 89 T. Bobček
- 34 A. El Azzouzi
- 5 W. Amey
- 90 E. Tchato Mbiayi
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