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Serie A

Genoa - Frosinone

09/12/2026, 01:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Genoa
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Frosinone
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
GENFRO

Genoa

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.32
Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.10
Vitinha on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Brooke Norton-Cuffy not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Frosinone

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.10
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.03

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Genoa: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)

  • 2
    Frosinone: 69% of all goals in the first half (9 of 13, last 7 games)

  • 3
    Frosinone: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 13)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

31%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Form gap: Genoa started with 3 consecutive losses (19th place) while Frosinone sit in 7th place with 6 points
  • Frosinone's offensive strength: The visitors averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches and are currently scoring more (2.2) than their season average (1.9)
  • Genoa's attacking struggles: The home side averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches and their goal production stalls at 1.0 compared to their season average of 1.3
Risk Factors
  • Weakened squad: Genoa must play without Vitinha (5 goals, 1 assist) and Brooke Norton-Cuffy (2 goals, 1 assist)
  • Low attacking threat: Genoa averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Limited data availability regarding historical head-to-head matches and current player stats for Frosinone
Overview

Genoa host Frosinone at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Serie A match on September 12, 2026, 3:00 PM

Genoa sit in 19th place with 0 points after 3 games

Frosinone occupy 7th place in the table with 6 points

Form

Genoa's current form is LWLLL with 3 consecutive losses at the end

Frosinone shows a positive trend with WLWDW

The hosts recorded 1 win and 4 losses in their form summary

Frosinone achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss during the same period

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Genoa scored 1.08 goals per game this season while conceding 1.34 on average

The hosts saw both teams score in 20 of 38 games and kept 9 clean sheets

Frosinone average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per match

The visitors kept 1 clean sheet in 3 matches this season

Genoa average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded at home

Frosinone scored 3 goals and kept a clean sheet in their only away game

Key Players

Lorenzo Colombo has 7 goals and 1 assist this season with a rating of 6.71

Leo ØstigÄrd contributes 5 goals and 1 assist as a defender with a rating of 7.13

Morten Frendrup stabilizes the midfield with a season rating average of 6.87

Goalkeepers

Justin Bijlow plays in goal for Genoa and holds a rating of 6.92

The Genoa goalkeeper recorded a total of 9 clean sheets this season

Lorenzo Palmisani recently guarded the net for Frosinone, who kept 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

The match takes place at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris on grass

Stadium statistics show a high average of 3.4 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches played at this venue

Both Over 1.5 (100%) and Over 2.5 (60%) show solid figures at the stadium

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