Match report →
Atalanta – Cagliari1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Atalanta
1.32
Total xG
2.27
Cagliari
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atalanta | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.31 | +0.31 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Nicola Zalewski not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Giacomo Raspadori not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home defense advantage: Atalanta concede only 0.79 goals per home game on average, whereas Cagliari remain highly vulnerable away from home with 1.76 goals
- Tactical metrics: Both teams averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 43% probability for an Atalanta home win
Risks
- Offensive issues: Cagliari's recent goal production is stalling at an average of 0.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.2
- Low scoring prediction: The model predicts a low-scoring game, with the probability of over 2.5 goals calculated at just 40%
All probabilities
Result
Atalanta43%
Draw31%
Cagliari25%
Double chance
Atalanta or draw75%
Cagliari or draw57%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
12%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atalanta: 7 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Atalanta 4-3-3 · Cagliari 4-4-1-1
Atalanta
- 29 M. Carnesecchi
- 16 R. Bellanova
- 3 K. Odilon
- 42 G. Scalvini
- 23 S. Kolašinac
- 10 L. Samardžić
- 19 F. Kessié
- 13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
- 9 G. Scamacca
- 11 J. Rowe
Cagliari
- 1 E. Caprile
- 2 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
- 14 A. Deiola
- 15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
- 33 A. Obert
- 8 M. Adopo
- 4 A. Romano
- 6 H. Winks
- 10 J. Fazzini
- 70 D. Maldini
- 31 P. Mendy
Substitutes
- 18 G. Raspadori
- 47 L. Bernasconi
- 59 N. Zalewski
- 57 M. Sportiello
- 90 N. Krstović
- 8 M. Pašalić
- 77 D. Zappacosta
- 99 E. Elmas
- 40 R. Obrić
- 31 T. Kristensen
- 22 T. Pompei
- 28 Y. Sugawara
- 9 K. Omoruyi Benjamin
- 39 A. Fadera
- 21 R. Gagliardini
- 27 J. Liteta
- 12 A. Sherri
- 26 Y. Mina González
- 79 Y. Massolin
- 20 R. Ciervo
- 23 B. Radunović
- 24 G. Aurelio
- 22 R. Kofler
- 32 I. Sulev
- 30 A. Akakriki
- 35 A. Sugamele
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