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Serie A

Atalanta - Cagliari

09/12/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Atalanta
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Cagliari
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ATACAG

Atalanta

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Nicola Zalewski not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Giacomo Raspadori not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Cagliari

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap)
-0.07

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.31
+0.31
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atalanta: 7 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

31%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Home defense advantage: Atalanta concede only 0.79 goals per home game on average, whereas Cagliari remain highly vulnerable away from home with 1.76 goals
  • Tactical metrics: Both teams averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 43% probability for an Atalanta home win
Risk Factors
  • Offensive issues: Cagliari's recent goal production is stalling at an average of 0.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.2
  • Low scoring prediction: The model predicts a low-scoring game, with the probability of over 2.5 goals calculated at just 40%
Overview

Atalanta (8th place, 6 points) host Cagliari (9th place, 6 points) at the Gewiss Stadium

Serie A match on September 12, 2026, 8:45 PM

A direct duel between two teams level on points in the mid-table

Form

Atalanta form: DWWWL with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss across all competitions

Cagliari form: WWLLW with 3 wins and 2 losses

Atalanta lost their last match 1-2 away to Roma

Cagliari won their last match 1-0 at home against Lecce

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Atalanta average 1.34 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded per game this season

Cagliari average 1.05 goals scored and 1.39 goals conceded

Cagliari concede an average of 1.76 goals per game on their travels

Atalanta's home record shows a solid 1.32 goals scored and only 0.79 goals conceded per match

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in the historical records

Atalanta have 2 wins, Cagliari recorded 1 win, with 1 match ending in a draw

The last meeting on April 27, 2026, ended in a 3-2 victory for Cagliari

Key Players

For Atalanta, Gianluca Scamacca stands out with 10 goals and Charles De Ketelaere with 3 goals and 5 assists

Lazar Samardžić is also crucial with 2 goals this season

Not nominated: Nicola Zalewski (2G/4A), Giacomo Raspadori (3G/1A)

For the visitors, Paul Mendy leads with 2 goals scored

Adam Obert has contributed 3 assists, while Michel Adopo has 1 goal and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Marco Carnesecchi starts for the hosts with an average rating of 7.07 and a rising form trend of +0.53

Cagliari rely on Elia Caprile, who carries a rating of 6.92 and a rising form trend of +0.32

Influences

The home advantage favors Atalanta, who concede only 0.79 goals on average at their own stadium

Recent games at the Gewiss Stadium averaged 1.0 goals per match

Cagliari show away-day vulnerabilities with 30 goals conceded in 17 away games last season

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