Match report →
Venezia – Fiorentina2 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Venezia
0.97
Total xG
1.94
Fiorentina
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Venezia | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −2.02 | |
| Attack strength (1.61x league average) | +1.70 | |
| Attack weakness (0.48x league average) | −0.66 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Albert Gudmundsson not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Marco Brescianini not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 51% of goal output missing (only 45% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 45% of goal threat available for Fiorentina, as Albert Gudmundsson and Marco Brescianini are not in the starting XI
- Venezia averaged 60.4% possession in recent matches
- The mathematical prediction calculates a tight match with a 35% probability of a draw
Risks
- Limited data availability regarding the form of home players
- Venezia's goal production is faltering recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to the season average of 1.6
- Fiorentina's goal production is also faltering recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to the season average of 1.4
All probabilities
Result
Venezia33%
Draw35%
Fiorentina32%
Double chance
Venezia or draw68%
Fiorentina or draw67%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.559%
Under 1.541%
Over 2.531%
Under 2.569%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
0:0
16%
1:1
15%
1:0
12%
0:1
12%
2:0
7%
2:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Venezia: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Venezia 3-5-2 · Fiorentina 4-2-3-1
Venezia
- 1 F. Stankovic
- 3 J. Schingtienne
- 2 M. Moreno
- 5 R. Haps
- 18 A. Hainaut
- 71 E. Pérez Muñoz
- 6 G. Busio
- 19 S. Sohm
- 20 S. Sagrado
- 10 J. Zamora
- 45 A. Adams
Fiorentina
- 43 D. de Gea Quintana
- 20 A. Jiménez Sánchez
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 6 L. Ranieri
- 33 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
- 27 C. Ndour
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 30 F. Mastantuono
- 14 A. Atta
- 25 A. Njie
- 23 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
Substitutes
- 14 T. Rendall Correia
- 8 L. Dabo
- 15 J. Nunes Jesus
- 70 P. Mazzocchi
- 56 K. Lisman
- 7 A. Rrahmani
- 77 A. Fernández Casino
- 21 T. Helgason
- 96 L. Montipò
- 36 L. Berardi
- 95 A. Gomes Furtado
- 29 L. Lauberbach
- 25 R. Halhal
- 55 S. Panada
- 16 R. Mohammed
- 29 D. Gnonto
- 4 M. Brescianini
- 28 P. Pereira Gonçalves
- 17 J. Neto Lopes
- 19 L. Lezzerini
- 53 O. Christensen
- 5 M. Pongracic
- 2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
- 21 V. Valdepeñas Talavera
- 32 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
- 42 C. Inao Oulaï
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