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Serie A

Venezia - Fiorentina

09/11/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 4
Expected Goals
Venezia
1.0
Total xG
1.9
Fiorentina
1.0
Most Likely Scores

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

1:0

12%

0:1

12%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
VENFIO

Venezia

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-2.02
Attack strength (1.61x league average)
+1.70
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.11
Full strength squad available

Fiorentina

Attack weakness (0.48x league average)
-0.66
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Albert Gudmundsson not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Marco Brescianini not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
51% of goal output missing (only 45% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Venezia: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

35%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

59%

Under 1.5

41%

Over 2.5

31%

Under 2.5

69%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Only 45% of goal threat available for Fiorentina, as Albert Gudmundsson and Marco Brescianini are not in the starting XI
  • Venezia averaged 60.4% possession in recent matches
  • The mathematical prediction calculates a tight match with a 35% probability of a draw
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability regarding the form of home players
  • Venezia's goal production is faltering recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to the season average of 1.6
  • Fiorentina's goal production is also faltering recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to the season average of 1.4
Overview

Venezia host Fiorentina at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Serie A match on September 11, 2026, 8:45 PM

Bottom of the table clash between 18th and 20th place

Both teams are still without points after three matchdays

Form

Venezia with form code WLLLL, recording 1 win and 4 losses

Fiorentina with form code DWLLL, recording 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Both teams recently suffered three consecutive league defeats

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Venezia scores an average of 1.67 goals and concedes 1.67 goals per game this season

In home games, Venezia averaged 2 goals scored and conceded 0 goals so far

Fiorentina averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded across 38 matches

Away from home, Fiorentina averages 1.05 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in recent years

Venezia leads with 1 win, while Fiorentina is without a win alongside 1 draw

The last match ended in a 2-1 home win for Venezia on May 12, 2025

Venezia scored 2 goals, while Fiorentina scored 1 goal

Key Players

John Yeboah scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in 4 home games with a 9.48 rating

Ridgeciano Haps has an average home rating of 7.65 across 4 home games

Gianluca Busio holds an average home rating of 7.33

Nicolò Fagioli achieved an average rating of 7.20 in 33 games this season

Luca Ranieri achieved a season rating of 6.73 in 34 matches

Cher Ndour holds an average season rating of 6.69 in 33 matches

Goalkeepers

Filip Stanković is in goal for Venezia, who kept 2 clean sheets so far

David de Gea guards the net for Fiorentina, who recorded 10 clean sheets this season

Influences

Venezia benefited from an average of 2 home goals scored at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

The stadium averages 3.7 goals per game

Fiorentina scored an average of 1.05 goals away from home

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