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Serie A

Lecce - Monza

09/13/2026, 01:00 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Lecce
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Monza
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
LECMON

Lecce

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
+0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.07
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.8 season average)
-0.07
Santiago Pierotti on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Monza

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.08
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.03
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Monza: 50% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (4 of 8)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

30%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model favors Lecce with a win probability of 41%
  • Lecce recently averaged a counter-oriented style with 42% possession
  • Monza is currently scoring more frequently, averaging 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 1.3
Risk Factors
  • Lecce scores only 0.72 home goals per game on average this season
  • Lecce's goal production is stagnating with a recent average of only 0.6 goals
  • Limited data availability regarding player form data for Monza
Overview

Lecce host Monza at the Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Serie A match on September 13, 2026, 3:00 PM

Lecce is in 14th place with 3 points

Monza occupies 18th place with 1 point

Both teams aim to correct their poor start to the season

Form

Lecce form: WLWLL

Monza form: WLLWD

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Lecce recently recorded 2 wins and 3 losses

Monza obtained 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last matches

Statistics

Lecce scores an average of 0.74 goals per game

The hosts concede an average of 1.32 goals per match

Monza records a season average of 2.0 goals scored per game

Defensively, Monza concedes an average of 0.0 goals

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in the database

1 win for Lecce and 1 draw

Lecce scored 2 goals, while Monza scored 1 goal

The last encounter on February 16, 2025 ended in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

Tiago Gabriel has 37 appearances, 2 goals, and a rating of 6.87

Lassana Coulibaly stands at 33 games with 3 goals and 1 assist (rating 6.81)

Antonino Gallo played 37 matches with 4 assists and a rating of 6.72

Michael Folorunsho played 2 away games at this venue with a rating of 6.31

Ebenezer Akinsanmiro shows 2 matches at this venue with a rating of 6.22

Jay Robinson appeared 1 time at this stadium (0 goals, 0 assists)

Goalkeepers

Wladimiro Falcone plays in goal for Lecce and has a season average rating of 6.84

Lecce kept 10 clean sheets overall this season

Monza has kept 2 clean sheets so far this term

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at the Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

This venue averages 2.2 goals per game

The stadium stats show a 20% rate for both teams to score matches

The rate for matches with over 2.5 goals stands at 40% at this venue

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