Match report →
Lecce – Monza3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Lecce
1.39
Total xG
2.54
Monza
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lecce | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.18 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 0.8 season average) | −0.07 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| Santiago Pierotti on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical model favors Lecce with a win probability of 41%
- Lecce recently averaged a counter-oriented style with 42% possession
- Monza is currently scoring more frequently, averaging 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 1.3
Risks
- Lecce scores only 0.72 home goals per game on average this season
- Lecce's goal production is stagnating with a recent average of only 0.6 goals
- Limited data availability regarding player form data for Monza
All probabilities
Result
Lecce41%
Draw30%
Monza29%
Double chance
Lecce or draw71%
Monza or draw59%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
0:2
5%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Monza: 50% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (4 of 8)
Lineups
Lecce 4-3-3 · Monza 3-4-2-1
Lecce
- 30 W. Falcone
- 17 D. Melo Veiga
- 5 J. Siebert
- 44 T. Coelho Oliveira
- 25 A. Gallo
- 29 L. Coulibaly
- 20 I. Ilić
- 14 Y. Maleh
- 11 K. Jocelyn N’dri
- 9 N. Štulić
- 99 J. Monteiro
Monza
- 20 D. Thiam
- 60 E. Kouadio
- 3 L. Lucchesi
- 44 A. Carboni
- 19 S. Birindelli
- 90 M. Folorunsho
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro
- 7 R. Chaby Mangas
- 28 A. Colpani
- 46 J. Robinson
- 9 G. Pereira De Sousa
Substitutes
- 7 A. Ahmed Fatah
- 2 A. Dembélé
- 18 G. Jean
- 50 S. Pierotti
- 3 C. Ndaba
- 77 M. Kaba
- 4 K. Gaspar
- 1 M. Bleve
- 28 O. Gorter
- 79 O. Ngom
- 8 S. Fofana
- 22 F. Esteban Sánchez
- 31 E. Scott
- 32 Alexandru Borbei
- 2 S. Goglichidze
- 1 N. Törnqvist
- 10 P. Cutrone
- 6 V. Ivaylov Antov
- 43 A. Strajnar
- 24 A. Bakoune
- 21 L. Colombo
- 11 O. Forson
- 47 D. Carvalho
- 5 Y. Maye
- 22 E. Zeballos
- 8 M. Foe Ondoa
- 80 M. Mout
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