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Serie A

Venezia - Lazio

09/19/2026, 06:45 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Venezia
1.1
Total xG
2.5
Lazio
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

0:1

10%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
VENLAZ

Venezia

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.16
Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+1.06
Attack strength (1.6x league average)
+0.80
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.19
Full strength squad available

Lazio

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.00
Boulaye Dia not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.45
+0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lazio: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Lazio: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Udinese: 2 goals (80', 90+5')

  • 3
    Lazio: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Lazio: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

30%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Form and standings gap: Fifth-placed Lazio (Form: LWWWD) travel as clear favorites to face bottom-placed Venezia who have zero points (Form: LLLLL)
  • Tactical approach: Venezia recently averaged 60.4% possession and 4.0 shots on target, while Lazio also averaged 4.0 shots on target in their past matches
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Lazio with a 42% win probability, projecting 1.38 expected goals for the visitors compared to 1.08 for Venezia
Risk Factors
  • Offensive crisis for Venezia: According to the analysis, 0% of the seasonal goal threat is currently available in the squad
  • Lazio absence: Attacker Boulaye Dia (1 goal, 2 assists) is not included in the visitors' squad
  • Limited data available regarding the home team's current player form
Overview

Venezia host Lazio at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Serie A match on September 19, 2026, 8:45 PM

Bottom-placed Venezia face fifth-placed Lazio

The hosts are under intense pressure having gained zero points from four matches

Form

Venezia is in a severe crisis with five consecutive defeats

Lazio is unbeaten in four matches, recording three wins and one draw

The visitors recently secured a 2-2 draw against AC Milan

Venezia lost their last home game 2-4 against Fiorentina

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Home form: LLLLL

Away form: LWWWD

Statistics

Venezia average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded per match this season

In home games, Venezia averaged 2.0 goals scored and zero goals conceded so far

Lazio averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded per match over the entire last season

In away matches, the visitors conceded an average of 1.15 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head encounters in recent seasons

Lazio recorded one win while 1 match ended in a draw

The last meeting on February 22, 2025, ended in a goalless 0-0 draw

The overall goal difference stands at 3-1 in favor of the visitors

Key Players

John Yeboah averages a 7.74 rating at home with 2 goals and one assist

Antoine Hainaut contributed one home goal with an average rating of 6.96

Akor Adams scored once in home games, reaching an average rating of 7.00

Mattia Zaccagni holds an average rating of 7.31 in his last 5 appearances with 2 assists

Matteo Cancellieri recorded 4 goals in 30 appearances this season and scored once in his last 5 matches

Tijjani Noslin registered 4 seasonal goals and scored once in the past 5 games

Goalkeepers

Filip Stanković is in goal for Venezia with an average home rating of 6.73

Christos Mandas guards Lazio's goal, averaging a 7.12 rating in his last 5 games

Venezia kept 2 clean sheets this season

Lazio recorded 15 clean sheets across the entire last season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

The venue history shows a high average of 4.3 goals per game

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