Match report →
Venezia – Lazio0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Venezia
1.08
Total xG
2.46
Lazio
1.38
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Venezia | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.16 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +1.06 | |
| Attack strength (1.6x league average) | +0.80 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.19 | |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Boulaye Dia not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form and standings gap: Fifth-placed Lazio (Form: LWWWD) travel as clear favorites to face bottom-placed Venezia who have zero points (Form: LLLLL)
- Tactical approach: Venezia recently averaged 60.4% possession and 4.0 shots on target, while Lazio also averaged 4.0 shots on target in their past matches
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Lazio with a 42% win probability, projecting 1.38 expected goals for the visitors compared to 1.08 for Venezia
Risks
- Offensive crisis for Venezia: According to the analysis, 0% of the seasonal goal threat is currently available in the squad
- Lazio absence: Attacker Boulaye Dia (1 goal, 2 assists) is not included in the visitors' squad
- Limited data available regarding the home team's current player form
All probabilities
Result
Venezia28%
Draw30%
Lazio42%
Double chance
Venezia or draw58%
Lazio or draw72%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
10%
0:1
10%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lazio: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Lazio: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Udinese: 2 goals (80', 90+5')
- Lazio: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Lazio: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
Lineups
Venezia 3-5-2 · Lazio 4-3-3
Venezia
- 1 F. Stankovic
- 3 J. Schingtienne
- 15 J. Nunes Jesus
- 2 M. Moreno
- 18 A. Hainaut
- 71 E. Pérez Muñoz
- 19 S. Sohm
- 21 T. Helgason
- 14 T. Rendall Correia
- 10 J. Zamora
- 45 A. Adams
Lazio
- 35 C. Mandas
- 15 R. Floriani
- 37 J. Šutalo
- 25 O. Nielsen
- 17 N. Varela Tavares
- 16 D. Frattesi
- 21 R. Belahyane
- 24 K. Taylor
- 22 M. Cancellieri
- 14 T. Noslin
- 10 M. Zaccagni
Substitutes
- 8 L. Dabo
- 56 K. Lisman
- 7 A. Rrahmani
- 77 A. Fernández Casino
- 96 L. Montipò
- 20 S. Sagrado
- 36 L. Berardi
- 95 A. Gomes Furtado
- 29 L. Lauberbach
- 25 R. Halhal
- 55 S. Panada
- 16 R. Mohammed
- 5 D. Doekhi
- 2 D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
- 23 A. Pedraza Sag
- 80 A. Gudmundsson
- 32 D. Cataldi
- 29 M. Lazzari
- 11 G. Isaksen
- 9 A. Pinamonti
- 40 E. Motta
- 71 V. Farcomeni
- 63 F. Serra
- 47 D. Renzetti
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