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Serie A

Parma - Genoa

09/20/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Parma
1.0
Total xG
1.9
Genoa
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

11%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
PARGEN

Parma

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.47
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.4 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.01
Sascha Britschgi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 64% available)

Genoa

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-0.85
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.22
Lorenzo Colombo on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists)
Vitinha on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 73% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.45
+0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Genoa: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)

  • 2
    Parma: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games

  • 3
    Parma: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Parma: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 9 total)

  • 5
    Parma: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

35%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

60%

Under 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

31%

Under 2.5

69%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Weakened attack: Genoa must play without Lorenzo Colombo and Vitinha which reduces offensive threat
  • Tactical stagnation: Parma averaged only 2.8 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Low goal expectation: The mathematical model calculates only a 31% probability for over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • Sascha Britschgi is missing for Parma leaving only 65% of the usual goal threat available
  • Parma's ongoing offensive struggles with only 0.4 goals averaged in recent matches
  • Genoa's defensive vulnerability away from home with 1.39 goals conceded per away match on average
Overview

Parma hosts Genoa at Stadio Ennio Tardini

Serie A match on September 20, 2026, 3:00 PM

Both teams are at the bottom of the table with only one point

A crucial duel in the relegation battle

Form

Parma has a record of LLLDL with one draw and four losses (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Genoa shows a form of LLLDW with one win and three losses

The hosts recently lost 1-2 against Como

Genoa arrives after a 1-0 win against Südtirol

Statistics

Parma averages 0.74 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per game

Genoa scores 1.08 goals and concedes 1.34 goals on average per game

Parma has failed to score 16 times this season

Genoa concedes 1.39 goals per away game on average

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Parma has 0 wins and Genoa has 2 wins with 2 draws

Parma scored 0 goals and conceded 2 in these direct duels

The last encounter ended in a 0-0 draw on January 18, 2026

Key Players

Emanuele Valeri has 2 assists and a 6.82 average rating in defense

Mandela Keita recorded 1 goal and 1 assist with a 6.84 rating in midfield

Enrico Delprato has scored 2 goals with a 6.71 average rating

Leo Østigård contributes 5 goals and a strong rating of 7.13 for Genoa

Junior Messias has scored 3 goals so far with a 6.86 rating

Tommaso Baldanzi has provided 2 assists with a rating of 6.85

Goalkeepers

Edoardo Corvi played 17 games this season with an average rating of 6.90

Justin Bijlow guarded Genoa's goal 16 times with an average rating of 6.92

Both goalkeepers display similar statistical consistency in the current campaign

Influences

Parma's home advantage at Stadio Ennio Tardini is based on 16 goals in 22 home matches

The venue averages 1.6 total goals per game historically

The grass pitch offers stable playing conditions for both sides

The historical rate for over 2.5 goals at this stadium sits at 0 percent

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