Match report →
Parma – Genoa2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Parma
1.04
Total xG
1.95
Genoa
0.91
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Parma | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.85 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.47 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.22 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| Sascha Britschgi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 64% available) | ||
| Lorenzo Colombo on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Vitinha on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 73% available) |
Key factors
- Weakened attack: Genoa must play without Lorenzo Colombo and Vitinha which reduces offensive threat
- Tactical stagnation: Parma averaged only 2.8 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Low goal expectation: The mathematical model calculates only a 31% probability for over 2.5 goals
Risks
- Sascha Britschgi is missing for Parma leaving only 65% of the usual goal threat available
- Parma's ongoing offensive struggles with only 0.4 goals averaged in recent matches
- Genoa's defensive vulnerability away from home with 1.39 goals conceded per away match on average
All probabilities
Result
Parma36%
Draw35%
Genoa29%
Double chance
Parma or draw71%
Genoa or draw64%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.560%
Under 1.540%
Over 2.531%
Under 2.569%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
0:0
16%
1:1
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
11%
2:0
8%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Genoa: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Parma: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Parma: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Parma: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 9 total)
- Parma: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Parma 3-4-2-1 · Genoa 3-4-2-1
Parma
- 40 E. Corvi
- 34 D. Santos Silva
- 37 M. Troilo
- 72 D. Drobnič
- 15 E. Del Prato
- 4 V. Sierro
- 16 M. Keita
- 14 E. Valeri
- 19 E. Toure
- 76 S. Lontani
- 9 J. Romero
Genoa
- 1 J. Bijlow
- 27 A. Marcandalli
- 5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 34 S. Otoa
- 3 K. Ehizibue
- 32 M. Frendrup
- 97 D. Sow
- 77 M. Ellertsson
- 10 J. Messias
- 8 T. Baldanzi
- 18 M. Osmajić
Substitutes
- 80 G. Fabbian
- 27 S. Britschgi
- 20 M. Frigan
- 8 B. Cremaschi
- 3 N. Ndiaye
- 32 C. Ordoñez
- 11 P. Almqvist
- 29 F. Carboni
- 22 S. Ghidotti
- 30 G. Daffara
- 23 N. Elphege
- 7 O. Diallo Thiao
- 47 A. Salam Konaté
- 11 F. Meichtry
- 25 H. Traorè
- 16 C. Drameh
- 92 S. El Shaarawy
- 39 D. Sommariva
- 29 L. Colombo
- 20 S. Sabelli
- 9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
- 4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
- 99 F. Stolz
- 71 S. Wiafe
- 2 M. Mitaj
- 31 D. Puczka
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