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Serie A

Roma - Inter

09/19/2026, 04:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Roma
1.7
Total xG
2.6
Inter
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

1:2

5%
What influences the xG?
ROMINT

Roma

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.57
Attack strength (1.35x league average)
+0.34
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.27
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.27
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15

Inter

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2.8 vs 2.3 season average)
+0.14
Hakan Çalhanoğlu not in squad (9 goals, 4 assists)
Pio Esposito on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.45
+0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Roma: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)

  • 2
    Roma: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 3
    Inter: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Inter: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (6 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

27%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical edge: The prediction model calculates a 53% probability for a Roma home win
  • Attacking threat: Inter averaged 7.8 shots on target and 66% possession in recent matches
  • Squad selection impact for Inter: Key contributors like Hakan Çalhanoğlu (9 goals, 4 assists) and Pio Esposito are not nominated
Risk Factors
  • Historical hurdle: Inter has won 3 out of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Roma
  • Opponent's offensive surge: Inter currently scores more frequently (2.8 goals average) than their season average of 2.3
Overview

Roma hosts Inter at the Stadio Olimpico

Top-tier Serie A clash on September 19, 2026, 4:00 PM

Both sides lead the table with 12 points each

Direct battle for the sole top spot in the league

Form

Roma's recent form is WWWDW with 4 wins and 1 draw

Inter shows WWWLW with 4 wins and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Roma remains undefeated in their last 5 matches

Statistics

Roma concedes an average of only 0.48 goals per home game

Inter has scored 89 goals in total, averaging 2.34 per game

Roma's defense at home is highly stable with 11 clean sheets

Inter averages 2.29 goals per away match this season

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent seasons

Inter dominates the historical record with 3 wins to Roma's 1

The last encounter ended in a 5-2 victory for Inter

Roma scored 3 goals while Inter scored 7 in these duels

Key Players

Donyell Malen with 14 goals this season and a 7.77 rating over the last 5 games

Federico Dimarco shines with 7 goals and 17 assists

Lautaro Martínez leads Inter's frontline with 17 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Mile Svilar has 11 clean sheets for Roma this season

Josep Martínez secured 10 clean sheets for Inter

Both keepers have provided consistent stability for their defenses

Influences

Strong home advantage for Roma backed by low home goals conceded

Stadio Olimpico venue average stands at 2.8 goals per match

Match played on natural grass surface

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