Match report →
Roma – Inter2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Roma
1.68
Total xG
2.63
Inter
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Roma | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.57 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Attack strength (1.35x league average) | +0.34 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.27 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu not in squad (9 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Pio Esposito on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical edge: The prediction model calculates a 53% probability for a Roma home win
- Attacking threat: Inter averaged 7.8 shots on target and 66% possession in recent matches
- Squad selection impact for Inter: Key contributors like Hakan Çalhanoğlu (9 goals, 4 assists) and Pio Esposito are not nominated
Risks
- Historical hurdle: Inter has won 3 out of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Roma
- Opponent's offensive surge: Inter currently scores more frequently (2.8 goals average) than their season average of 2.3
All probabilities
Result
Roma53%
Draw27%
Inter20%
Double chance
Roma or draw80%
Inter or draw47%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
1:2
5%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Roma: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Roma: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Inter: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Inter: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (6 points rescued)
Lineups
Roma 3-4-2-1 · Inter 3-1-4-2
Roma
- 99 M. Svilar
- 23 G. Mancini
- 26 L. Balerdi Rossa
- 22 M. Hermoso Canseco
- 43 W. França Lima
- 4 B. Cristante
- 17 K. Kone
- 20 N. Molina Lucero
- 21 P. Exequiel Dybala
- 18 M. Malvano
- 14 D. Malen
Inter
- 1 J. Martínez Riera
- 31 Y. Bisseck
- 25 M. Akanji
- 95 A. Bastoni
- 7 P. Zieliński
- 17 A. Diouf
- 23 N. Barella
- 21 C. Jones
- 32 F. Dimarco
- 10 L. Martínez
- 9 M. Thuram
Substitutes
- 3 K. Koulierakis
- 15 M. de Roon
- 86 R. Mora Carvalho
- 9 S. Castro
- 7 L. Pellegrini
- 87 D. Ghilardi
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 2 D. Rensch
- 95 P. Gollini
- 5 O. N'Dicka
- 70 G. De Marzi
- 77 E. Lulli
- 28 B. Pavard
- 5 A. Stankovic
- 14 A. Bonny
- 8 P. Sučić
- 11 L. Tomaz de Lima
- 94 F. Esposito
- 22 H. Mkhitaryan
- 12 R. Di Gennaro
- 30 C. Zopalato Neves
- 49 I. Provedel
- 48 M. Mosconi
- 46 L. Bovio
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