Match report →
Udinese – Cagliari0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Udinese
1.14
Total xG
2.11
Cagliari
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Udinese | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.75 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.45 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Oumar Solet not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jakub Piotrowski not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 87% available) |
Key factors
- Udinese currently scores more frequently (Avg 2.0) than their season average of 1.3
- Udinese dominated historical matchups with 3 wins in the last 4 encounters
- The mathematical model calculates a 38% home win probability compared to 29% for the visitors
Risks
- Cagliari's goal scoring has stalled recently (Avg 1.0) compared to their season average of 1.2
- Cagliari concedes an average of 1.76 goals per away match
- Udinese must play without Oumar Solet and Jakub Piotrowski who were not nominated
All probabilities
Result
Udinese38%
Draw33%
Cagliari29%
Double chance
Udinese or draw71%
Cagliari or draw62%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
12%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Udinese: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Udinese: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Udinese 3-4-2-1 · Cagliari 5-3-2
Udinese
- 40 M. Okoye
- 14 J. Abankwah
- 27 C. Kabasele
- 77 E. Ebosse
- 23 M. Vojvoda
- 38 L. Miller
- 8 J. Karlström
- 11 H. Kamara
- 10 N. Zaniolo
- 32 J. Ekkelenkamp
- 9 K. Davis
Cagliari
- 1 E. Caprile
- 8 M. Adopo
- 2 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
- 26 Y. Mina González
- 15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
- 33 A. Obert
- 4 A. Romano
- 6 H. Winks
- 14 A. Deiola
- 31 P. Mendy
- 70 D. Maldini
Substitutes
- 46 U. Gómez Etxebarria
- 30 G. Chakvetadze
- 41 B. Mrozek
- 7 I. Gueye
- 59 A. Zanoli
- 15 V. Bayo
- 6 O. Zarraga Egaña
- 4 S. Lovric
- 93 D. Padelli
- 13 N. Bertola
- 28 Y. Sugawara
- 9 K. Omoruyi Benjamin
- 10 J. Fazzini
- 39 A. Fadera
- 21 R. Gagliardini
- 27 J. Liteta
- 12 A. Sherri
- 79 Y. Massolin
- 20 R. Ciervo
- 23 B. Radunović
- 24 G. Aurelio
- 22 R. Kofler
- 32 I. Sulev
- 35 A. Sugamele
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