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Serie A

Udinese - Cagliari

09/19/2026, 01:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Udinese
1.1
Total xG
2.1
Cagliari
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

12%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
UDICAG

Udinese

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.45
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.21
Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.21
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.14
Oumar Solet not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Jakub Piotrowski not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Cagliari

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.75
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
12% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.53
+0.53
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Udinese: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 2
    Udinese: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

33%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Udinese currently scores more frequently (Avg 2.0) than their season average of 1.3
  • Udinese dominated historical matchups with 3 wins in the last 4 encounters
  • The mathematical model calculates a 38% home win probability compared to 29% for the visitors
Risk Factors
  • Cagliari's goal scoring has stalled recently (Avg 1.0) compared to their season average of 1.2
  • Cagliari concedes an average of 1.76 goals per away match
  • Udinese must play without Oumar Solet and Jakub Piotrowski who were not nominated
Overview

Udinese (13th place, 4 points) hosts Cagliari (5th place, 9 points) at the Dacia Arena

Serie A match on September 19, 2026, 3:00 PM

Cagliari travels as fifth in the standings, while Udinese looks to avoid a poor start

Form

Udinese shows form DWWLL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

The home team recently suffered two consecutive defeats

Cagliari enters with form WLLWW (3 wins, 2 losses) and consecutive victories

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Udinese scored 45 goals this season (Avg 1.18) and conceded 48 (Avg 1.26)

Cagliari scored 40 goals (Avg 1.05) and conceded 53 (Avg 1.39)

Cagliari struggles away from home, conceding an average of 1.76 goals per game

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in the database

Udinese dominated with 3 wins and 1 draw

Goal difference of 7:2 in favor of the home team

The last meeting ended in a 2:0 win for Udinese on May 9, 2026

Key Players

Keinan Davis (10 goals, 4 assists, 7.04 rating)

Jurgen Ekkelenkamp (5 goals, 3 assists, 7.26 rating recently)

NicolĆ² Zaniolo (5 goals, 6 assists, 6.95 rating)

Paul Mendy (2 goals, 6.75 rating)

Michel Adopo (2 assists in the last 5 games)

Adam Obert (3 assists, 6.83 rating)

Goalkeepers

Maduka Okoye features for Udinese with 11 clean sheets this season

Elia Caprile guards Cagliari's goal with 8 clean sheets recorded so far

Influences

Dacia Arena features a grass pitch

Udinese averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded at home

The last 5 home games at this venue averaged 2.0 total goals

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