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AC Milan – Lecce3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
AC Milan
1.97
Total xG
2.73
Lecce
0.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AC Milan | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.53x league average) | −0.78 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 17, 12 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 5, 12 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tiago Gabriel on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Konan N’Dri on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 65% and expects 1.97 home goals
- Historical dominance with 5 wins for AC Milan from the last 5 head-to-head encounters against Lecce
- AC Milan controlled games with an average possession of 59% in recent matches
Risks
- Setback in form following AC Milan's recent 0-2 defeat against Benfica
- Lecce shows a slightly positive form trend, scoring more recently (1.0) than their season average (0.9)
- Limited data on duel statistics (totalDuels) in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
AC Milan65%
Draw23%
Lecce12%
Double chance
AC Milan or draw88%
Lecce or draw35%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
2:0
13%
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AC Milan: 5 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- AC Milan: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- AC Milan: 46% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 13)
Lineups
AC Milan 3-4-2-1 · Lecce 4-3-3
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 34 M. Fuentes
- 5 K. De Winter
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 21 S. Chukwueze
- 14 L. Modrić
- 12 A. Rabiot
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 11 C. Pulisic
- 56 A. Saelemaekers
- 9 G. Ramos
Lecce
- 30 W. Falcone
- 17 D. Melo Veiga
- 4 K. Gaspar
- 5 J. Siebert
- 25 A. Gallo
- 50 S. Pierotti
- 20 I. Ilić
- 14 Y. Maleh
- 29 L. Coulibaly
- 9 N. Štulić
- 99 J. Monteiro
Substitutes
- 22 D. da Silva Moreira
- 20 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
- 80 Y. Musah
- 30 A. Jasari
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 1 P. Terracciano
- 23 F. Tomori
- 46 M. Gabbia
- 96 L. Torriani
- 8 R. Loftus-Cheek
- 73 F. Camarda
- 42 F. Terracciano
- 70 A. Cisse
- 13 S. Bocoum
- 28 C. Comotto
- 7 A. Ahmed Fatah
- 2 A. Dembélé
- 18 G. Jean
- 3 C. Ndaba
- 77 M. Kaba
- 11 K. Jocelyn N’dri
- 1 M. Bleve
- 28 O. Gorter
- 79 O. Ngom
- 8 S. Fofana
- 22 F. Esteban Sánchez
- 31 E. Scott
- 32 Alexandru Borbei
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