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Serie A

AC Milan - Lecce

09/20/2026, 06:45 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
AC Milan
2.0
Total xG
2.7
Lecce
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

13%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
AMLEC

AC Milan

Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 17, 12 places gap)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Ruben Loftus-Cheek on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)

Lecce

Attack weakness (0.53x league average)
-0.78
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 5, 12 places gap)
-0.10
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.04
Tiago Gabriel on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Konan Nā€™Dri on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    AC Milan: 5 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    AC Milan: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

  • 3
    AC Milan: 46% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 13)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

65%

Draw

23%

Away Win

12%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

88%

Away or Draw

35%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 65% and expects 1.97 home goals
  • Historical dominance with 5 wins for AC Milan from the last 5 head-to-head encounters against Lecce
  • AC Milan controlled games with an average possession of 59% in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Setback in form following AC Milan's recent 0-2 defeat against Benfica
  • Lecce shows a slightly positive form trend, scoring more recently (1.0) than their season average (0.9)
  • Limited data on duel statistics (totalDuels) in the provided dataset
Overview

AC Milan (7th place, 8 points) host Lecce (12th place, 6 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Serie A match on September 20, 2026, 8:45 PM

The home team enters this clash as clear favorites

Form

AC Milan holds a form of WWDDL

Their last match ended in a 0-2 defeat against Benfica

Lecce shows a form of LWLLW after a recent 3-2 victory over Monza

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

AC Milan scores an average of 1.39 goals per home game

The Rossoneri defense concedes an average of 1.17 goals at home

Lecce records an average of 0.75 goals per away match

The visitors concede an average of 1.3 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

Five head-to-head matches have taken place in recent years

AC Milan has won all 5 encounters

The last direct meeting ended 1-0 in favor of the home team

The goal difference stands at 12-2 for the Rossoneri

Key Players

Christian Pulisic has scored 8 goals and provided 4 assists this season

Adrien Rabiot has 6 season goals and 4 assists

Luka Modrić has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists so far

Lassana Coulibaly has scored 3 season goals for Lecce

Danilo Veiga recently assisted 2 goals

Santiago Pierotti has 1 season goal and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Mike Maignan played 37 matches this season and recorded 15 clean sheets

Wladimiro Falcone completed 38 matches and achieved 10 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

The stadium averages 4.4 goals per game

Home advantage based on 25 home goals scored and 21 conceded by the Rossoneri

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