Match report →
Juventus – Atalanta2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Juventus
1.87
Total xG
2.67
Atalanta
0.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Juventus | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | +0.58 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Manuel Locatelli not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gianluca Scamacca on the bench (10 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Giacomo Raspadori not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 98% available) |
Key factors
- Form advantage: Juventus is currently scoring more frequently with 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.8
- Tactical edge: Juventus averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a home win probability of 61%
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Juventus has a short recovery period with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Opponent's offensive slump: Atalanta's goal production has stalled at 1.2 compared to their season average of 1.5
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Juventus61%
Draw25%
Atalanta14%
Double chance
Juventus or draw86%
Atalanta or draw39%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juventus: 8 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Atalanta: 7 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Juventus: 4 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Atalanta: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Juventus 3-4-2-1 · Atalanta 4-3-3
Juventus
- 25 G. Vicario
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 31 N. González
- 22 W. McKennie
- 12 D. Soares de Paulo
- 2 M. Çelik
- 7 F. Conceição
- 17 K. Alajbegović
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
Atalanta
- 29 M. Carnesecchi
- 16 R. Bellanova
- 31 T. Kristensen
- 42 G. Scalvini
- 47 L. Bernasconi
- 10 L. Samardžić
- 19 F. Kessié
- 13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
- 90 N. Krstović
- 11 J. Rowe
Substitutes
- 27 N. Woltemade
- 29 P. Sarr
- 4 F. Gatti
- 11 E. Zhegrova
- 24 D. Rugani
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 6 L. Kelly
- 43 F. Pagnucco
- 40 R. Radu
- 49 G. Makiobo Makiobo
- 18 G. Raspadori
- 23 S. Kolašinac
- 59 N. Zalewski
- 57 M. Sportiello
- 8 M. Pašalić
- 77 D. Zappacosta
- 9 G. Scamacca
- 99 E. Elmas
- 40 R. Obrić
- 70 G. Gaetano
- 43 J. Mirra
- 22 T. Pompei
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →