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Serie A

Juventus - Atalanta

09/20/2026, 04:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Juventus
1.9
Total xG
2.7
Atalanta
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
JUVATA

Juventus

Attack strength (1.4x league average)
+0.58
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.30
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.11
Manuel Locatelli not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

Atalanta

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.09
Gianluca Scamacca on the bench (10 goals, 1 assists)
Giacomo Raspadori not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 98% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.42
+0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juventus: 8 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Atalanta: 7 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Juventus: 4 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Atalanta: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

25%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Form advantage: Juventus is currently scoring more frequently with 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.8
  • Tactical edge: Juventus averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a home win probability of 61%
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Juventus has a short recovery period with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Opponent's offensive slump: Atalanta's goal production has stalled at 1.2 compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
Overview

Juventus (8th place, 7 points) host Atalanta (11th place, 6 points) at the Juventus Stadium

Serie A match on September 20, 2026, 6:00 PM

A mid-table clash with a narrow gap between the teams

Form

Juventus with form WWDLW, coming off a 5-0 win against NEC Nijmegen

Atalanta travels with two consecutive losses and form WWWLL

Juventus shows an upward trend while Atalanta is struggling

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Juventus scores an average of 1.61 goals and concedes 0.89 goals per game this season

Atalanta averages 1.34 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded

At home, Juventus concedes only 0.73 goals on average

Atalanta averages 1.37 goals scored and 1.11 conceded away from home

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 meetings, there were 2 draws, 2 wins for Atalanta, and 1 win for Juventus

Goal ratio of 3:9 in favor of Atalanta

The last head-to-head match ended in a 1-0 win for the home team

Key Players

Nico González with rising form and 2 goals from his last 4 matches

Bremer stabilized the defense and has already scored 4 goals this season

Weston McKennie has registered 5 goals and 5 assists with a declining form trend

Nikola Krstović leads with 10 goals and 5 assists this season despite a declining trend

Charles De Ketelaere contributed 3 goals and 5 assists this season

Lazar Samardžić scored 1 goal in the recent period with stable form

Goalkeepers

Guglielmo Vicario guards the goal for Juventus, which has recorded 16 clean sheets this season

Marco Carnesecchi shows rising form for Atalanta with a rating of 7.54 over the last 5 matches

Atalanta stands at a total of 13 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at the Juventus Stadium

Stadium history shows an average of 2.6 goals per game with a BTTS rate of 40%

Juventus enjoys a strong home advantage, conceding only 0.73 goals per home game

The home team had a significantly shorter recovery time with 3 days since their last match compared to 8 days for the visitors

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