Match report →
Fiorentina – Napoli1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Fiorentina
1.17
Total xG
2.34
Napoli
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fiorentina | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.33 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Marco Brescianini not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Leonardo Spinazzola not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Frank Anguissa not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Alisson Santos not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 84% available) |
Key factors
- Severe squad issues for Napoli with 6 sidelined injuries and missing Spinazzola, Anguissa, and Alisson Santos in the lineup
- Fiorentina's offensive drive with an average of 6.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to Napoli's 3.8
- Napoli's historical dominance with 4 wins in the last 4 direct duels and a 10-3 goal difference
Risks
- Napoli's goal production is currently stalling at 1.2 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.5
- Defensive miss for Fiorentina as F. Parisi is out with a cruciate ligament injury and Marco Brescianini is not nominated
- Even model prediction with a 34% win probability calculated for both sides
All probabilities
Result
Fiorentina34%
Draw32%
Napoli34%
Double chance
Fiorentina or draw66%
Napoli or draw66%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
0:1
10%
1:0
10%
1:2
8%
Lineups
Fiorentina 4-3-3 · Napoli 4-2-3-1
Fiorentina
- 43 D. de Gea Quintana
- 20 A. Jiménez Sánchez
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 6 L. Ranieri
- 33 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
- 27 C. Ndour
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 14 A. Atta
- 30 F. Mastantuono
- 32 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
- 25 A. Njie
Napoli
- 32 V. Milinković Savić
- 22 G. Di Lorenzo
- 13 A. Rrahmani
- 16 R. Marín Zamora
- 17 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 68 S. Lobotka
- 21 M. Politano
- 11 K. De Bruyne
- 70 N. Lang
- 19 R. Højlund
Substitutes
- 29 D. Gnonto
- 23 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
- 4 M. Brescianini
- 28 P. Pereira Gonçalves
- 17 J. Neto Lopes
- 19 L. Lezzerini
- 53 O. Christensen
- 5 M. Pongracic
- 2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
- 21 V. Valdepeñas Talavera
- 42 C. Inao Oulaï
- 72 B. Mazzeo
- 5 B. Badiashile Mukinayi
- 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
- 31 S. Beukema
- 20 L. Lucca
- 26 A. Vergara
- 99 A. Zambo Anguissa
- 7 D. Neres Campos
- 2 C. Favasuli
- 12 C. Pugliese
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