Serie A
Fiorentina - Napoli
09/20/2026, 10:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.3
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
11%0:1
10%1:0
10%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Fiorentina
Napoli
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
32%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Severe squad issues for Napoli with 6 sidelined injuries and missing Spinazzola, Anguissa, and Alisson Santos in the lineup
- Fiorentina's offensive drive with an average of 6.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to Napoli's 3.8
- Napoli's historical dominance with 4 wins in the last 4 direct duels and a 10-3 goal difference
Risk Factors
- Napoli's goal production is currently stalling at 1.2 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.5
- Defensive miss for Fiorentina as F. Parisi is out with a cruciate ligament injury and Marco Brescianini is not nominated
- Even model prediction with a 34% win probability calculated for both sides
Overview
Fiorentina (16th place, 3 points) host Napoli (10th place, 6 points) at the Stadio Artemio Franchi
Serie A match on September 20, 2026, 12:30 PM
Fiorentina aim to escape the lower region of the table
Napoli look to connect with the upper positions
Form
Fiorentina show a form of LLLWW
They recently secured two consecutive wins
Napoli have a form of WLLLW
Both teams won their respective last match
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Fiorentina average 1.08 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game
At home, they average 1.11 goals scored and conceded
Napoli average 1.53 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded
Away from home, Napoli concede 1.12 goals on average
Advanced stats show Fiorentina scoring consistently with around 1.5 goals per game
Napoli's goal production is stalling with 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.5
Head-to-Head
Napoli clearly dominated recent encounters
4 wins for Napoli in the last 4 direct duels
Fiorentina failed to win any of these matches
The last meeting ended 1-2 for Napoli on January 31, 2026
Goal difference of 10-3 in favor of Napoli
Key Players
For Fiorentina, Manor Solomon is in strong form with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games
Albert Gudmundsson scored 1 goal in the last 4 matches
Rolando Mandragora contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games
For Napoli, Kevin De Bruyne stands out with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 matches
Rasmus Højlund scored 2 goals in his last 5 games
Matteo Politano scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances
Goalkeepers
David de Gea plays in goal for Fiorentina with a season average rating of 6.87
In his last 5 games, his average rating dropped to 6.48
Vanja Milinković-Savić guards Napoli's goal with a season average of 6.83 and 6.58 in recent matches
Fiorentina secured 10 clean sheets so far, while Napoli achieved 15
Influences
Played on grass at the Stadio Artemio Franchi
Historical matches at this venue average 3.2 goals
Both teams scored in 60% of matches played here
Fiorentina benefit from 5 days of rest, while Napoli had 7 days off