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Frosinone – Como2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Frosinone
1.06
Total xG
2.70
Como
1.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Frosinone | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.46x league average) | −0.88 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.58 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.53 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Máximo Perrone on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 2.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Strong form trend for Como with four consecutive wins and an overall record of DWWWW
- Como's tactical dominance averaging 58.6% possession and 6.8 shots on target per game in recent matches
- The mathematical model predicts a 49% away win probability for Como
Risks
- Limited data availability for historical head-to-head matches
- Limited data availability for player statistics of Frosinone
- Absence of key midfielder Máximo Perrone for Como
All probabilities
Result
Frosinone23%
Draw28%
Como49%
Double chance
Frosinone or draw51%
Como or draw77%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
10%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
1:3
5%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Como: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Frosinone: 71% of all goals in the first half (10 of 14, last 8 games)
Lineups
Frosinone 4-2-3-1 · Como 4-2-3-1
Frosinone
- 22 L. Palmisani
- 20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
- 3 G. Calvani
- 30 I. Monterisi
- 79 G. Bracaglia
- 14 G. Calò
- 73 P. Masini
- 7 F. Ghedjemis
- 10 R. Schmid
- 17 G. Kvernadze
- 9 A. Raimondo
Como
- 1 J. Butez
- 27 Y. Couto
- 4 J. Naveros
- 99 T. Chalobah
- 3 ?. Valle Gómez
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 11 A. Diao Diaoune
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
- 20 M. Baturina
- 9 A. Douvikas
Substitutes
- 25 K. Akpoguma
- 11 D. Birligea
- 40 S. Fini
- 70 L. Hasa
- 24 A. Zerbin
- 91 S. Desplanches
- 2 G. Cittadini
- 12 M. Pisseri
- 16 M. Cichella
- 74 O. Fayed
- 89 T. Bobček
- 34 A. El Azzouzi
- 5 W. Amey
- 90 E. Tchato Mbiayi
- 53 W. Kambwala
- 97 R. Lynch Sanchez
- 90 M. Kean
- 21 S. Ricci
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 17 J. Rodríguez Caraballo
- 5 M. Perrone
- 42 J. Addai
- 2 M. Kempf
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 18 E. Goldaniga
- 13 A. Dossena
- 22 M. Vigorito
- 30 M. Liberali
- 16 K. da Silva
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