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Serie A

Monza - Sassuolo

09/18/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Monza
1.1
Total xG
1.9
Sassuolo
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

17%

1:1

15%

1:0

15%

0:1

10%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
MONSAS

Monza

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.23
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Full strength squad available

Sassuolo

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.14
Cristian Volpato not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.53
+0.53
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sassuolo with Domenico Berardi starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (14/10 games, last 29)

  • 2
    Sassuolo: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

35%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

59%

Under 1.5

41%

Over 2.5

30%

Under 2.5

70%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Sassuolo's positive form trend meets Monza's weak defense with an average of 2.75 goals conceded per game
  • Squad impact: Monza currently have 0% of their active goal share available
  • Tactical approach: Monza averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches with balanced possession
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability: Monza concede an average of 2.75 goals per game this season
  • Injury crisis: Both teams are missing multiple key players due to injuries
  • Limited data on head-to-head history
Overview

Monza (18th place, 1 point) host Sassuolo (9th place, 7 points) at the U-Power Stadium

Serie A match on September 18, 2026, 8:45 PM

Monza are looking for their first win of the season while Sassuolo aim to secure their mid-table position

The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 41%

Form

Monza show weakness with a form of LLWDL and one win in their last five matches

Sassuolo travel with a form of LWDDW, having won two of their last five games

The visitors have shown a positive trend recently

Monza lost their last match 2-3 against Lecce

Statistics

Monza scored 6 goals (avg 1.5) and conceded 11 goals (avg 2.75) this season

Sassuolo scored 46 goals and conceded 50 goals in 38 games last season

Monza conceded 3 goals in their only home game so far

Sassuolo average 1.24 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded away from home

Key Players

For Monza, Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela stands out with 3 goals in 3 matches at the venue

Ebenezer Akinsanmiro registered 1 assist at the U-Power Stadium

For Sassuolo, Domenico Berardi has 8 goals and 4 assists this season

Armand Laurienté contributed 7 goals and 9 assists

Kristian Thorstvedt has 4 goals and 4 assists

Cristian Volpato is not in the squad for Sassuolo

Goalkeepers

Noel Törnqvist starts in goal for Monza

Arijanet Murić is in goal for Sassuolo, with a season average rating of 7.17

Sassuolo achieved 8 clean sheets last season

Influences

The U-Power Stadium averages 3.0 goals per game

The BTTS rate at the venue is 33%

Monza's home defense is vulnerable with 3 goals conceded in their only home fixture

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