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Monza – Sassuolo2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Monza
1.11
Total xG
1.91
Sassuolo
0.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monza | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Cristian Volpato not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Sassuolo's positive form trend meets Monza's weak defense with an average of 2.75 goals conceded per game
- Squad impact: Monza currently have 0% of their active goal share available
- Tactical approach: Monza averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches with balanced possession
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Monza concede an average of 2.75 goals per game this season
- Injury crisis: Both teams are missing multiple key players due to injuries
- Limited data on head-to-head history
All probabilities
Result
Monza41%
Draw35%
Sassuolo24%
Double chance
Monza or draw76%
Sassuolo or draw59%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.559%
Under 1.541%
Over 2.530%
Under 2.570%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Both teams score
Yes39%
No61%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:1
15%
1:0
15%
0:1
10%
2:0
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sassuolo with Domenico Berardi starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (14/10 games, last 29)
- Sassuolo: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Monza 3-4-2-1 · Sassuolo 4-3-3
Monza
- 1 N. Törnqvist
- 60 E. Kouadio
- 3 L. Lucchesi
- 44 A. Carboni
- 19 S. Birindelli
- 90 M. Folorunsho
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro
- 7 R. Chaby Mangas
- 10 P. Cutrone
- 46 J. Robinson
- 9 G. Pereira De Sousa
Sassuolo
- 49 A. Murić
- 46 S. Cinquegrano
- 15 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 16 F. Leysen
- 3 J. Doig
- 42 K. Thorstvedt
- 18 N. Matić
- 50 D. Bakola
- 10 D. Berardi
- 94 S. Esposito
- 45 A. Lauriente
Substitutes
- 2 S. Goglichidze
- 16 C. Ngonge
- 6 V. Ivaylov Antov
- 20 D. Thiam
- 43 A. Strajnar
- 24 A. Bakoune
- 28 A. Colpani
- 21 L. Colombo
- 11 O. Forson
- 47 D. Carvalho
- 5 Y. Maye
- 22 E. Zeballos
- 8 M. Foe Ondoa
- 80 M. Mout
- 33 Rafael Burguera
- 17 V. Adžić
- 55 I. Sulemana
- 25 B. Domínguez
- 9 K. Bowie
- 20 I. Brempt
- 80 S. Turati
- 12 G. Satalino
- 19 L. Skjellerup
- 26 C. Odenthal
- 77 N. Pierini
- 35 L. Lipani
- 8 A. Ghion
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