Match report →
Bologna – Torino1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Bologna
1.33
Total xG
2.21
Torino
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bologna | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.59x league average) | −0.91 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Jens Odgaard not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Emil Holm on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| C. Adams not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 81% available) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis favors Bologna with a 46% win probability
- Torino is highly vulnerable away from home, conceding 2.27 goals per game on average
- Bologna dominated recent head-to-head history with 3 wins in 4 matches
Risks
- Bologna averaged only 3.6 shots on target per match in recent games
- Torino's attack averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match recently
- Limited data availability on the performance metrics of goalkeeper Lucas Perri
All probabilities
Result
Bologna46%
Draw31%
Torino23%
Double chance
Bologna or draw77%
Torino or draw54%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Torino: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Bologna: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Torino: 4 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
- Torino: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
Bologna 3-4-3 · Torino 3-5-2
Bologna
- 1 Ł. Skorupski
- 5 E. Fauske Helland
- 14 T. Heggem
- 3 A. Theate
- 20 N. Zortea
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 4 T. Pobega
- 33 J. Miranda González
- 10 F. Bernardeschi
- 91 R. Piccoli
- 28 N. Cambiaghi
Torino
- 20 L. Estella Perri
- 5 E. Cömert
- 44 A. Ismajli
- 23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
- 29 N. Fortini
- 21 D. Santos Bragança
- 8 R. Mandragora
- 28 K. Fitz-Jim
- 77 A. Cacciamani
- 18 G. Simeone
- 10 N. Vlašić
Substitutes
- 11 S. Mbangula
- 17 O. El Azzouzi
- 23 A. Alhassane Bonkan
- 41 M. Vitík
- 29 L. De Silvestri
- 25 M. Pessina
- 6 N. Moro
- 2 E. Holm
- 7 R. Orsolini
- 21 J. Odgaard
- 16 N. Casale
- 72 U. Happonen
- 22 J. Enem
- 8 M. Amondarain
- 18 M. Libra Alvarado
- 13 R. Rodríguez Araya
- 2 N. Patterson
- 17 S. Kulenovic
- 15 P. Comuzzo
- 91 D. Zapata Banguera
- 66 G. Gineitis
- 7 Z. Aboukhlal
- 6 E. İlkhan
- 3 C. Biraghi
- 11 G. Oristanio
- 45 R. Belghali
- 26 D. Mascardi
- 76 L. Siviero
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →