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Serie A

Bologna - Torino

09/19/2026, 01:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Bologna
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Torino
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BOLTOR

Bologna

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.11
Jens Odgaard not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
Emil Holm on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 80% available)

Torino

Attack weakness (0.59x league average)
-0.91
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.14
C. Adams not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 81% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.53
+0.53
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Torino: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Bologna: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 3
    Torino: 4 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

  • 4
    Torino: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

31%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis favors Bologna with a 46% win probability
  • Torino is highly vulnerable away from home, conceding 2.27 goals per game on average
  • Bologna dominated recent head-to-head history with 3 wins in 4 matches
Risk Factors
  • Bologna averaged only 3.6 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Torino's attack averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match recently
  • Limited data availability on the performance metrics of goalkeeper Lucas Perri
Overview

Bologna (17th place, 1 point) host Torino (15th place, 3 points)

Serie A match on September 19, 2026, 3:00 PM

Basement battle at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Form

Bologna is in poor form with DLLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses

Torino travels with a form of LLLWL

The visitors recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 4 losses

Statistics

Bologna averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded

Torino averages 1.16 goals scored and 1.66 goals conceded per match

In away matches, the visitors conceded 34 goals in 15 games (averaging 2.27 goals)

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 duels, Bologna won 3 times, with no wins for Torino and 1 draw

The goal ratio is 7:3 in favor of Bologna

The last meeting ended in a 2-1 away victory for Bologna

Key Players

For Bologna, Federico Bernardeschi with 4 goals and Lewis Ferguson stand out

Nicolò Cambiaghi contributed 3 goals and 4 assists

Not nominated: Jens Odgaard (5 goals, 1 assist) and Emil Holm (1 goal, 4 assists)

Torino relies on Giovanni Simeone with 11 goals and Nikola Vlašić

Saúl Coco stabilizes the defense

Not nominated: C. Adams

Goalkeepers

Lukasz Skorupski starts in goal for Bologna with a rating of 6.72

Lucas Perri guards the visitors' goal

Both teams kept 12 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

Home advantage at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara is backed by 7 home clean sheets

Matches at this stadium average 2.6 goals

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