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Napoli – Frosinone3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Napoli
1.54
Total xG
2.90
Frosinone
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Napoli | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Matteo Politano on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form gap: Frosinone are unbeaten in 5 matches (WDWDW) while Napoli lost 3 of their last 5 games
- Tactical shooting power: Frosinone averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches, scoring 2.0 goals per game
- Squad absence: Matteo Politano is not nominated (1 goal / 1 assist), leaving 73% of usual goal production available
Risks
- Defensive trend: Napoli conceded 1.4 goals per game recently and lost 3 of their last 5 matches
- Injury concerns: Napoli deal with 6 sidelined players including A. Buongiorno and A. Zambo Anguissa
All probabilities
Result
Napoli40%
Draw28%
Frosinone32%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
Napoli or draw68%
Frosinone or draw60%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Frosinone: 75% of all goals in the first half (12 of 16, last 9 games)
- Frosinone: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)
- Frosinone: first goal in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Napoli 3-4-2-1 · Frosinone 4-2-3-1
Napoli
- 1 A. Meret
- 16 R. Marín Zamora
- 13 A. Rrahmani
- 5 B. Badiashile Mukinayi
- 22 G. Di Lorenzo
- 11 K. De Bruyne
- 68 S. Lobotka
- 37 L. Spinazzola
- 7 D. Neres Campos
- 70 N. Lang
- 19 R. Højlund
Frosinone
- 22 L. Palmisani
- 20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
- 3 G. Calvani
- 2 G. Cittadini
- 79 G. Bracaglia
- 73 P. Masini
- 14 G. Calò
- 7 F. Ghedjemis
- 10 R. Schmid
- 17 G. Kvernadze
- 9 A. Raimondo
Substitutes
- 32 V. Milinković Savić
- 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
- 31 S. Beukema
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 20 L. Lucca
- 21 M. Politano
- 8 S. McTominay
- 35 L. Marianucci
- 23 G. Santana do Nascimento
- 25 K. Akpoguma
- 71 A. Terzić
- 40 S. Fini
- 70 L. Hasa
- 24 A. Zerbin
- 91 S. Desplanches
- 12 M. Pisseri
- 16 M. Cichella
- 30 I. Monterisi
- 74 O. Fayed
- 89 T. Bobček
- 34 A. El Azzouzi
- 5 W. Amey
- 90 E. Tchato Mbiayi
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