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Serie A10/10/2026, 01:00 PM

Genoa – Fiorentina2 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Genoa
1.36
Total xG
2.60
Fiorentina
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorGenoaFiorentina
Attack weakness (0.52x league average)−0.85
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.68
High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)+0.40+0.40
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)−0.15
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)−0.15
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)+0.10
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)+0.10
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)+0.09
Attack weakness (0.76x league average)−0.09
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean−0.03
Lorenzo Colombo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Mateo Pellegrino on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Form trend: Genoa's goal output stagnated at 0.8 goals per game recently (season avg 1.3), while Fiorentina improved to 1.8 goals per game
  • Tactical edge: Fiorentina averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Genoa's 3.8
  • Model prediction: The calculated pipeline gives a 38% home win probability with expected goals of 1.36 to 1.25

Risks

  • Squad impact: Lorenzo Colombo is missing from Genoa's starting lineup, leaving 79% of normal attacking strength available
  • Away defensive weakness: Fiorentina concede an average of 1.53 goals per away game
  • Schedule gap: Both teams enter the match after 20 days without competitive match practice

All probabilities

Result
Genoa38%
Draw30%
Fiorentina33%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Genoa or draw67%
Fiorentina or draw62%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Genoa: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)

Lineups

Genoa 4-2-3-1 · Fiorentina 4-2-3-1

Genoa
  • 1 J. Bijlow
  • 3 K. Ehizibue
  • 34 S. Otoa
  • 5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
  • 22 J. VĂĄsquez Ibarra
  • 25 H. TraorĂš
  • 32 M. Frendrup
  • 77 M. Ellertsson
  • 10 J. Messias
  • 92 S. El Shaarawy
  • 18 M. Osmajić
Fiorentina
  • 43 D. de Gea Quintana
  • 20 A. JimĂ©nez SĂĄnchez
  • 3 R. Drăgușin
  • 6 L. Ranieri
  • 21 V. Valdepeñas Talavera
  • 27 C. Ndour
  • 44 N. Fagioli
  • 30 F. Mastantuono
  • 42 C. Inao OulaĂŻ
  • 29 D. Gnonto
  • 23 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
Substitutes
  • 16 C. Drameh
  • 8 T. Baldanzi
  • 39 D. Sommariva
  • 27 A. Marcandalli
  • 20 S. Sabelli
  • 9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
  • 99 F. Stolz
  • 71 S. Wiafe
  • 75 G. Lafont
  • 2 M. Mitaj
  • 21 R. de Souza JĂșnior
  • 14 L. KliĆĄys
  • 31 D. Puczka
  • 4 M. Brescianini
  • 28 P. Pereira Gonçalves
  • 17 J. Neto Lopes
  • 19 L. Lezzerini
  • 53 O. Christensen
  • 5 M. Pongracic
  • 2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
  • 25 A. Njie
  • 32 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
  • 33 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
  • 72 B. Mazzeo

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