Match report â
Lecce â Bologna1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Lecce
1.30
Total xG
2.52
Bologna
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lecce | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | â0.73 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.44 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | â0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average) | â0.23 | |
| Attack weakness (0.59x league average) | â0.23 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 12, 7 places gap) | â0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | â0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 19, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Low active goal threat: Lecce line-up has only 18% of season goals available, Bologna only 6%
- Tactical metrics: Lecce averaged 3.4 shots on target in recent matches, while Bologna averaged 3.2
- Model forecast: Analysis calculates a 37% home win probability with 1.30 to 1.22 expected goals
Risks
- Sluggish attack: Bologna averaged only 0.6 goals scored per game across their last 5 matches
- Adverse weather conditions with heavy rain at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare and 67% humidity
All probabilities
Result
Lecce37%
Draw30%
Bologna33%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Lecce or draw67%
Bologna or draw63%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bologna: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Lecce 4-3-3 · Bologna 3-4-2-1
Lecce
- 30 W. Falcone
- 17 D. Melo Veiga
- 5 J. Siebert
- 44 T. Coelho Oliveira
- 25 A. Gallo
- 29 L. Coulibaly
- 20 I. IliÄ
- 14 Y. Maleh
- 50 S. Pierotti
- 22 F. Esteban SĂĄnchez
- 7 A. Ahmed Fatah
Bologna
- 25 M. Pessina
- 36 M. Darmian
- 16 N. Casale
- 14 T. Heggem
- 20 N. Zortea
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 4 T. Pobega
- 33 J. Miranda GonzĂĄlez
- 7 R. Orsolini
- 28 N. Cambiaghi
- 91 R. Piccoli
Substitutes
- 99 J. Monteiro
- 69 W. Geubbels
- 2 A. Dembélé
- 18 G. Jean
- 3 C. Ndaba
- 77 M. Kaba
- 4 K. Gaspar
- 11 K. Jocelyn Nâdri
- 1 M. Bleve
- 28 O. Gorter
- 16 O. Gandelman
- 79 O. Ngom
- 8 S. Fofana
- 32 Alexandru Borbei
- 3 A. Theate
- 17 O. El Azzouzi
- 23 A. Alhassane Bonkan
- 5 E. Fauske Helland
- 41 M. VitĂk
- 29 L. De Silvestri
- 1 Ć. Skorupski
- 10 F. Bernardeschi
- 6 N. Moro
- 9 A. Dovbyk
- 72 U. Happonen
- 22 J. Enem
- 8 M. Amondarain
- 18 M. Libra Alvarado
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