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Cagliari – Juventus1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Cagliari
1.20
Total xG
2.55
Juventus
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cagliari | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −1.02 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.68 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Low active goal share: Only 13% of season goal production is active in the available squads for both Cagliari and Juventus
- Offensive trend for Juventus: The visitors averaged 2.4 goals per match in recent games compared to their season average of 1.8
- Mathematical prediction: Models calculate a 39% probability for an away win with 1.35 expected goals for Juventus
Risks
- Cagliari's goal production slowed down to 1.0 goals per match recently compared to their 1.2 season average
- Juventus conceded an average of 1.12 goals per match in away games this season
All probabilities
Result
Cagliari32%
Draw30%
Juventus39%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Cagliari or draw61%
Juventus or draw69%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juventus: 8 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Juventus: 4 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Cagliari 4-3-2-1 · Juventus 4-2-3-1
Cagliari
- 1 E. Caprile
- 2 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
- 26 Y. Mina González
- 15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
- 33 A. Obert
- 8 M. Adopo
- 6 H. Winks
- 4 A. Romano
- 79 Y. Massolin
- 70 D. Maldini
- 31 P. Mendy
Juventus
- 25 G. Vicario
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 2 M. Çelik
- 29 P. Sarr
- 12 D. Soares de Paulo
- 7 F. Conceição
- 22 W. McKennie
- 31 N. González
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
Substitutes
- 28 Y. Sugawara
- 9 K. Omoruyi Benjamin
- 10 J. Fazzini
- 18 M. N'Zola
- 39 A. Fadera
- 21 R. Gagliardini
- 27 J. Liteta
- 14 A. Deiola
- 12 A. Sherri
- 20 R. Ciervo
- 23 B. Radunović
- 24 G. Aurelio
- 22 R. Kofler
- 32 I. Sulev
- 35 A. Sugamele
- 27 N. Woltemade
- 32 J. Cabal Murillo
- 4 F. Gatti
- 11 E. Zhegrova
- 24 D. Rugani
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 20 A. Cambiaso
- 6 L. Kelly
- 17 K. Alajbegović
- 40 R. Radu
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